277
FXUS63 KLBF 191105
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
505 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitter cold and dangerous wind chills continue into Tuesday
  across all of central and western Nebraska.

- Extreme Cold Warning for wind chills down to 35 below zero
  generally along and north of Hwy 2 and Hwy 91 late tonight
  through Monday morning.

- A gradual warming trend mid to late next week but temperatures
  generally remaining below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 405 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Lingering flurries have finally dissipated though a band of
clouds continues downstream of the Black Hills into central
Nebraska. Otherwise conditions look to remain quiet but very
cold across the region today with afternoon temperatures only
reaching to around 20 degrees south of I-80 while readings north
of Hwy 2 struggle to rise into the single digits and breezy
conditions add an extra bite to the cold.

High pressure moving south out of Canada will push another surge
of cold air into the region from the north tonight. Significant
midlevel FGEN forcing and deformation will slide by to our west
and generate some flurries across southwest Nebraska though
there is only a 20 percent chance for any measurable
accumulation beyond a dusting. Of more consequence will be a
surge of wind moving in from the north before daybreak with up
to a 60 percent chance for gusts at or above 35mph. This is
important due to the timing when temperatures will be very cold
with overnight lows ranging from 15 below zero form the
sandhills into the northern panhandle to right around zero near
the KS border. The combination of the wind and cold
temperatures will create better than a 50 percent chance for
wind chills to reach 35 below zero late tonight through Monday
morning. west of Hwy 183 and generally north of Hwy 2. Given
this trend toward a higher probability for wind chills lower
than 30 below zero, have upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning
Midnight tonight through Noon CST Monday with the Cold Weather
Advisory for wind chills at or lower than 25 below zero
remaining in place elsewhere. Afternoon sunshine will do little
to alleviate the situation as highs Monday will not beak the
zero mark near the SD border and will struggle to reach 10F
south of Interstate 80, and wind gusts of 20 to 30mph keep wind
chills running in the 10 below to 25 below zero range. Winds
diminish considerably Monday night but will still generate wind
chills of 20 to 25 below zero through daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement mid to late next
week showing the very deep and expansive upper trof encompassing
most of the lower 48 gradually moving east with the only
significant riding remaining remain along the Pacific coast. As
successive Pacific coast ridges try to move eastward they
quickly lose amplitude and result in a weaker trof lingering
over the Plains through late next week with a gradual transition
to a split flow regime next weekend. Evolution of this pattern
will allow for a gradual warming trend but still keep
temperatures generally below normal through the end of next
week. This also looks to be a generally dry pattern for
central and western Nebraska as moisture is very limited with no
direct transport from either the Pacific or the Gulf.

One system will dive out of Canada and into the Great Lakes
region Wednesday and push a cold front through Nebraska. Blustery
northwest winds will have up to a 60 percent chance for gusts
at or above 40mph, along with potential for a dusting of snow
north of Hwy 2 and a 40 percent chance for snow accumulations
less than one inch form the sandhills up toward the Pine Ridge.
Another system diving south through the Rockies will have
potential to generate snow showers west of Hwy 83 late next week
and into the weekend with up to a 30 percent chance for
accumulations less than one inch west of Hwy 61.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

For KVTN: A band of MVFR clouds downwind of the Black Hills is
diminishing but is close enough to warrant mentioning some SCT
lower clouds for a few hours after issuance. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period.
Winds will generally be light from the northwest at around 10kt
or less for the majority of the period. However winds will be
increasing notably toward the end of the valid period so will
mention some gusts around 25kt for the final 3 hours.

For KLBF: A band of MVFR clouds downwind of the Black Hills is
diminishing but is still expected to create a TEMPO MVFR CIG for
the first few hours after issuance. By mid morning expect VFR
conditions with increasing mid/high clouds toward sunset. There
may be a few flurries and a lower VFR CIG this evening so will
maintain VFR and not include any VCSH that far out. Winds will
generally be light from the northwest at less of less through
the period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
Extreme Cold Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for NEZ004>006-008-009-022>027-035-
094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...MBS