093
FXUS63 KLBF 191121
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry with moderating temperatures across central and
  western Nebraska through the weekend.

- Potential for elevated to near critical fire weather
  conditions mainly west of Hwy 83 for the first part of next
  week.

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms with meaningful
  precipitation continues to increase for central and western
  Nebraska by latter portion of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A progressive split flow regime aloft will be in place as an upper
trof shears apart and leaves a closed low moving across the
southwestern US while the rest of the trof continues moving eastward
across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. Nebraska will be between
these 2 features today with enough induced ridging aloft and high
pressure lingering at the surface to bring more sunshine and
warmer temperatures to the area for the start of the weekend. By
tonight the closed low will be moving across the southern
Plains and then lift northeastward into the upper Mississippi
valley Sunday into Sunday night. Ensemble guidance has shown
this track to be trending a bit further to the south and east so
aside from an afternoon sprinkle or two from Curtis through
O`Neill on Sunday, the majority of the region will see dry
conditions through the weekend.

Highs will be in the 55 to 60 degree range today and a bit warmer
into the 60 to 65 degree range for Sunday. Lows will generally be in
the 30s with up to a 70 percent chance for readings at or below
freezing tonight west of Hwy 83, and up to a 60 percent chance for
readings at or below freezing Sunday night mainly north of I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Ensemble guidance continues to advertise a progressive pattern
through the middle of next week that eventually becomes highly
amplified toward the end of next week. This will keep temperatures
at of above normal with a significant increase in moisture and
potential for precipitation from midweek onward.

A weak northern stream system will move thorugh the High Plains
Monday through Monday night. However moisture is limited with
this system and there is only a 25 percent chance for measurable
precipitation mainly confined to locations north of I-80. With
little to no precipitation from this system on Monday and dry
conditions expected for Tuesday, there is potential for elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions as winds become
blustery especially west of Hwy 83, though spring green-up is
gaining momentum and availability of fuels is becoming
questionable.

By Wednesday as the pattern starts to gain amplitude deep moisture
transport from the south will begin to push precipitable water
values toward the 90th percentile and also supply some instability
to support better potential for convection. Deterministic guidance
starts to diverge in specifics late in the period particularly in
passage of a cold front late next week but ensembles show the
overall flavor for the latter portion of next week being active with
daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.
Probabilistic guidance shows up to a 60 percent chance for
precipitation totals Wednesday through Friday of half an inch or
more for most of central and western Nebraska east of Hwy 61,
and up to a 40 percent chance for precipitation totals of one
inch or more mainly both south of Hwy 2 and east of Hwy 83. The
ensembles paint with a broad brush so given the nature of
convection precipitation may end up being more localized with a
greater spread between high and low amounts as can be seen in
the large spread of QPF plumes and perhaps an initial hint for
developing a signal in Shift of Tails guidance with an
indication for anomalous precipitation across central Nebraska
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions continue to prevail across western and north central
Nebraska through the effective TAF period. Clouds remain mid to high
level throughout the day, with additional mid to high cloud cover
moving into the region overnight. Winds gradually shift throughout
the day from southwesterly to southerly by the afternoon. Overnight,
winds across southwest Nebraska become southeasterly.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Richie