396
FXUS63 KLBF 101123
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms develop again late this afternoon
  and evening, mostly in western and southwestern Nebraska. A
  Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across
  southwest Nebraska this evening, with large hail and severe
  wind gusts as the main threats.

- Cooler temperatures are expected across the region today and
  tomorrow. Temperatures gradually warm throughout the week,
  with a return to highs in the 90s by midweek.

- Beyond Monday morning, chances of precipitation are low,
  generally under 25 percent. The next best chance of showers
  and thunderstorms returns Friday and Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

An upper level trough is currently tracking across the region this
morning, with a strong line of thunderstorms along a surface
boundary in eastern Nebraska. As showers and thunderstorms continue
to track out of the region this morning, skies remain mostly cloudy
to overcast. Skies gradually clear out late this morning and
afternoon. A reinforcing cold front tracks through the region this
morning, which, in combination with the cloud cover, will help limit
daytime highs today. Widespread highs in the upper 70s are expected,
with some areas in southwest Nebraska breaking into the low 80s.
This will make this afternoon the coolest day of the week, as
temperatures will continue to gradually warm up. As another low
pressure system tracks east across the Plains this afternoon and
evening, additional showers and thunderstorms are possible across
southwest Nebraska. With the cooler temperatures across the region
today, CAPE will be somewhat limited compared to the previous few
days. Deep layer shear should continue to support a more discrete
storm mode initially. As storms develop further west, they should
initially pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds, and as
such, a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) has been expanded to portions
of southwest Nebraska.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist throughout the
night, lasting into early Monday morning. High pressure builds in
behind the exiting storms, ushering in a relatively calm pattern
through the week. Highs stay on the cooler side Monday, with highs
in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The upper level trough continues to track eastward on Tuesday, with
a surface cold front also tracking across the region. This will keep
temperatures around seasonal on Tuesday, with no precipitation
expected. Upper level ridging begins to build in behind this system,
which should help keep the weather pattern fairly quiet for several
days. Afternoon highs build back into the 90s starting on Wednesday
lasting into the weekend. Throughout this period, precipitation
chances remain low, generally under 25 percent. By the weekend, a
shortwave is expected to track through the upper level flow, with a
surface low tracking across the region. As this happens, chances of
precipitation trend up slightly, with a 25 to 30 percent chance of
precipitation Friday and Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Localized IFR conditions are observed over southwest Nebraska this
morning, including the KLBF terminal. Over the next few hours,
conditions are expected to improve to MVFR, then to VFR. Across the
rest of western and north central Nebraska, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail today and tonight. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight, however,
guidance has struggled to agree on a consistent timing and coverage.
Will omit rain from TAFs for the time being, but could see addition
of rain and thunder after 00Z. Winds remain light today out of the
north and northeast, becoming light and variable this evening and
overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie