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FLUS42 KKEY 050856
HWOKEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
456 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-060900-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
456 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The NOS water level gauges at Key West Harbor and the west side
of Vaca Key, in addition to the National Park Service gauges
Bayside of the Upper Keys, indicate high tide water levels very
near Coastal Flood Statement. The predicted tides for the next
several days will increase slightly, all due to the new moon.
Finally, a mid latitude low pressure system east of the Carolinas
will disrupt the flow of the Gulf Stream for the next several
days, which may result in an increase in water levels across the
Keys. Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for all of the
Florida Keys.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. The primary
hazards will be gusty winds and cloud to surface lightning
strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly
Sunday through Thursday. The primary hazards will be gusty winds,
cloud to surface lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

There is a slight chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
Sunday night through Wednesday due to adequate deep layer shear
and instability. These storms will be capable of damaging wind
gusts.

A tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea early next week. While uncertainty
remains high, this system is expected to advance east
northeastward through the first half of the week and push across
the Florida Peninsula around mid week. As a result, a few days of
locally heavy rainfall and fresh to strong southerly to westerly
breezes are becoming increasingly likely. Rainfall totals for
early through mid week will range between 4 and 6 inches, with
locally higher amounts. The Weather Prediction Center placed South
Florida and the Keys in a Marginal Risk (5-15% chance) for
Excessive Rainfall on Sunday night through Tuesday. Small Craft
Advisories may be required.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$