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FLUS42 KKEY 061005
HWOKEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
605 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-071015-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
605 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The NOS water level gauges at Key West Harbor and the west side
of Vaca Key, as well as the National Park Service gauges Bayside
of the Upper Keys, indicate high tide levels reaching Coastal
Flood Statement levels. The predicted tides for the next day or
two will change only slightly. Finally, a mid latitude low
pressure system east of the Carolinas will disrupt the flow of the
Gulf Stream for the next several days. Coastal Flood Statements
are in effect for all of the Florida Keys.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. The primary
hazards will be gusty winds and cloud to surface lightning
strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly
Sunday through Thursday. The primary hazards will be gusty winds,
cloud to surface lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

There is a slight chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
Sunday night through Wednesday due to adequate deep layer shear
and instability. These storms will be capable of damaging wind
gusts.

Tropical Storm Milton is expected to emerge out of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, accelerating east northeastward then
northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days,
reaching the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. There remains quite
a bit of uncertainty regarding track and intensity of Milton
through this period. Regardless, a few days of locally heavy
rainfall and fresh to strong southerly to westerly breezes are
becoming increasingly likely. Rainfall totals for early through
mid week will range between 4 and 6 inches, with locally higher
amounts. The Weather Prediction Center placed South Florida and
the Keys in a Marginal Risk (5-15% chance) for Excessive Rainfall
on Sunday night through Tuesday. At least Small Craft Advisories
will likely be required. In addition, Milton`s wind field is
expected to be broad and may contribute to coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$