Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
372 FXUS62 KKEY 171916 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 316 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Bouts of breezy conditions will persist, lasting through the early part of the weekend. -Small Craft Advisory will likely develop this evening. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida Keys island communities. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely develop this evening as breezes further freshen with building seas. Scattered showers will continue to traverse east to west across mainly the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, a high pressure system moving into the southeastern CONUS will gradually shift out across the Atlantic by Sunday. This will maintain moderate to fresh breezes overnight through at least Saturday evening. As the high slides east on Sunday, a warm front will lift north across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. This will lead to higher than normal rain and thunder chances. By Monday, a new cold front will gradually press through the area. Outside of peaks and lull or convection, breezes will generally slacken through early next week then freshen late in the week as the next high builds in. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with gusty east-northeast winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A weak backdoor front is currently moving through the Florida Keys. Associated with this feature is a narrow band of enhanced moisture that has allowed for some showers to develop. A batch went through the Upper and Middle Keys and surrounding coastal waters. This batch is on a downward trend as it continues to try and slide west southwest. Elsewhere, across the southwestern Straits of Florida and outer Gulf waters surrounding the Dry Tortugas another area continues to churn out showers. These showers are the product of mass and speed convergence going on as the leading edge of the wind surge meets up with the slower moving air mass. At the same time, there is a pocket of moisture collocated in this region allowing for showers to proliferate along this collision boundary. As alluded to, we have an ongoing wind surge occurring due to a high pressure building along the eastern half of the U.S. Widespread 15 to 20 knots is being reported at all of our reporting marine sites. Likewise, across the island chain, frequent gusts to near 20 mph are being reported. Lastly, tidal levels remain elevated and as such Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 86 77 86 / 20 20 30 40 Marathon 76 84 77 85 / 10 10 20 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest