Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
290 FXUS62 KKEY 241541 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1141 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Sun shines across the Florida Keys despite some cloud debris advected in aloft from showers and storms that developed and dissipated earlier this morning. This convection had rapidly formed around the Upper Keys, with the strongest portion out in the Atlantic. The observation station at Carysfort Reef Light recorded a gust of 35 knots (40 mph) associated with the strongest cell at around 7:40 EDT. But just as quick as these storms built, they collapsed with MRMS 6 hour QPE noting that the majority of rainfall occurred offshore with maybe up to a quarter of an inch seen around Layton at most. Currently, KBYX radar detects a decaying thunderstorm in the Deep Gulf waters east of P Tower along with a few very shallow showers struggling to form south of the Lower and Middle Keys. Gentle south southwest winds along the Reef hint at the possibility of Cuban Shadow today. GOES-19 visible imagery confirms this as cloud cover is nearly non existent in the distant Straits north of eastern Cuba. Mostly clear skies have allowed temperatures to already hit the upper 80s along most of the island chain. A weak surface ridge axis nosed over the Keys is the source of our generally southerly flow today. This is loosely connected to the Bermuda High that usually has hold of our sensible weather this time of year. Meanwhile, troughing dominates southeast CONUS and is associated with a cold front approaching the Eastern Seaboard. Throughout today, the cold front will continue to inch southeast towards the coastline while a cold core low spins up in the waters off the Carolinas. This will bring moisture in from the Gulf across mainland Florida and spark more rounds of convection. As the low rides north along the coast, the showers and thunderstorms will form along its tail across Florida. We may observe some of this convection attempting to breach our waters from the north again later today. Ridging will stay rooted over our area which will not only keep some of the showers pinned back over the Peninsula, but also filter in drier air from the south. Opting to keep the forecast as it is with a slight chance PoPs becoming chance this afternoon where more northerly areas such as the Upper Keys could see some showers sliding in from mainland. && .MARINE... Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak subtropical surface high will remain over the Keys through early to mid week. This will result in generally light breezes, occasionally becoming light to gentle as well as variable at times. Towards the latter half of the week, the ridge over the Atlantic will strengthen slightly as a tropical wave moves through the northwest Caribbean Sea. This will result in a freshening winds with occasionally gentle to moderate breezes. Also, increasing moisture is expected to lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially late week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH today. While showers cannot be ruled out at either terminal, dry southerly flow will keep organized convection at bay with no mention required at this time. Near surface winds will be generally out of the south to southwest at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Florida Keys weather history in 1992, Hurricane Andrew struck south Miami-Dade county, devastating Homestead and causing major damage in the Miami metro area. The southern eyewall brushed the Ocean Reef area in the extreme Upper Keys, causing significant damage to numerous buildings. In terms of lowest central pressure, this was the fifth-most intense Hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 1851. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 83 90 83 / 30 20 20 20 Marathon 92 82 92 82 / 30 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest