Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
480 FXUS62 KKEY 160820 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 420 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Drier air draped across the Florida Keys will permit only slight rain chances, as well as lower dew points to prevail for the first half of the weekend. -Bouts of breezy conditions will commence on Friday, lasting through the early part of the weekend. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida Keys island communities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 421 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Halfway through October, and the atmosphere over the Florida Keys most resembles the dry season. CIMSS derived precipitable water scans measured about 1 inch over the Keys, and to provide context, the tenth percentile for the day is 1.17 inches. The 00Z KKEY sounding sampled no mixed layer CAPE in the environment, which helps explain why the KBYX radar scans see almost no meteorological echoes over the coastal waters. Lows are on track to be in the mid to upper 70s, so enjoy the reprieve from heat and humidity while it lasts. Breezes along the reef are measuring as gentle to moderate, and slackening to gentle is possible during the day. The short term forecast is thus uneventful weather across the Keys. Coastal Flooding will still be an issue today across the Keys, so watch for ponding around low lying areas. .FORECAST... A marine low located off the eastern coast of the US will continue its trek into the mid-Atlantic over the next few days. In its place, a high pressure system is diving south from the Great Lakes towards the southeastern CONUS. While breezes are gentle to moderate, the high will tighten the gradient over the weekend. Small Craft Advisories and a chance of showers are possible on Friday, assuming sufficient moisture is present in the lower atmosphere alongside veering winds, but confidence is not high enough to put in the forecast at this time. The big change to the forecast package involves the winds at the start of the next work week. Statistical guidance indicates the high pressure system will be both stronger and further south than previously expected, so a period of light to gentle breezes is much less likely on Monday to Monday night. In this scenario, a moisture gradient would be stuck over the Florida Keys. Shower chances would remain near normal, 20%, for most of next week. Just make sure to keep checking for any updates as we get to the end of the wet season. && .MARINE... Issued at 421 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure sinking south over the eastern CONUS will keep shower coverage low through Friday. Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will freshen to moderate to fresh as the pressure gradient tightens on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required sometime over the weekend, depending on the strength of the high pressure system. Shower coverage may increase Friday night because of a southward moving convergence boundary. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 421 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail today. While a passing shower can`t be ruled out, they will be rare. Winds will generally be light out of the northeast. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1955, the daily record low temperature of 63F was recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 76 86 76 / 10 30 30 30 Marathon 84 76 84 76 / 10 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest