Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
591 FXUS62 KKEY 301449 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1049 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 It has been a busy start to the last day of June across the Florida Keys. KBYX radar has been active all morning with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Two storms threatened the Lower Keys today with the first one weakening on its approach to the western Lower Keys which brought just some light rain to Key West. The second storm was the more prolific one which produced strong gusty winds along the northern side of the Lower Keys as it moved parallel to the Chain. This one while also weakening on approach, especially from Big Coppitt Key west, brought heavier rain, gustier winds, and more frequent thunder and lightning than its predecessor. Some obs from across the Lower Keys showed Boca Chica gusting to 42 knots or 48 mph at 944 am this morning and Sand Key gusting to 34 knots near 10 am. Elsewhere, gusts generally ranged from 25 knots to 30 knots (30-35 mph). MRMS- (Multi-radar/Multi Sensor) showed rainfall estimates of 0.75 to 1.25 inches throughout the Lower Keys. This has resulted in rain cooled air of temperatures in the mid to upper 70s throughout the Lower and Upper Keys where there were also showers and storms with lower 80s for the Middle Keys. Outside of convective influences, marine platforms were observing northeast to east winds near 10 knots. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... An upper level disturbance which can also be seen on CIMMS Vorticity shows weak troughing continuing to slowly press southwestward this afternoon. As a result, expect showers and thunderstorms to continue throughout the day, especially where there has been untapped air. Areas that have been affected may still see a shower or two throughout the afternoon but it shouldn`t be like this morning. Latest radar also shows a stratiform rain covering much of the Chain and hi-res model guidance shows this continuing for the next few hours till 16-17z or 12-1 pm. Therefore, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a broad area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche will move westward into Central America this afternoon. Breezes across the Keys will continue to relax somewhat as the system presses west. Breezes will freshen as Beryl, now a major hurricane, marches steadily west northwest through the Caribbean Sea Tuesday through Thursday. Please review the Tropical Cyclone Advisories for additional information on the track and future evolution of Beryl. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to wane over the next several hours, giving way to VFR conditions at the terminals. After a lull in activity for much of the afternoon, additional showers and thunderstorms may develop. General periods of VCSH and VCTS are included in the TAFs for now, with specific impacts to the terminals left to future TEMPOs and amendments. Outside of any thunderstorm, near-surface winds will remain generally out of the east less than 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 81 89 82 / 70 50 60 40 Marathon 89 81 89 83 / 70 50 60 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest