Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
883 FXUS62 KKEY 161855 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 255 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Persistence is the name of the game this evening across the Florida Keys. Temperatures across the island chain are rising towards the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the mid to upper dew points. Near surface winds are consistently out of the southeast between 5 to 10 knots, bringing more moisture across the Keys from the Straits. Non-meteorological echoes are the only objects currently seen by the KBYX radar, and GOES-E sees fair weather cumulus clouds across the nearshore waters. No changes are expected to the pattern tonight, over South Florida the weather pattern simply is not changing drastically. Across the Florida Keys, we will be in, functionally, a blocking pattern for the weekend and early next week. A well developed mid-level ridge over the Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula will keep deflecting the subtropical jet north of the Keys throughout the week and sustain deep layer subsidence over South Florida. Complicating the pattern will be the lack of a robust high pressure system north of the Antilles or in the southeastern CONUS. Instead, a high is progged to build over northern Ontario and Manitoba during the weekend. Resultant breezes across the Keys are thus forecast to be prevailing light to gentle breezes during the day and gentle to moderate during nighttime hours. Statistical guidance suggests the weather pattern will shift Wednesday to Thursday. A sequence of low pressure systems across the northern half of the CONUS will moderate the mid level ridge and allow light to gentle breezes to shift from southeasterlies to variable or southwesterlies. Southerlies on Wednesday suggest a Cuban Shadow will inhibit shower development even as the environmental flow field shifts to allow additional moisture to reach at least 750 mb. Southwesterlies on Thursday suggest a reverse cloud line and potential waterspouts. PoPs are at 20% for now with thunderstorms added back into the forecast. The wet season is very, very close at hand, so take advantage of our upcoming dry weather! && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 No watches or warnings are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a dry pattern defined by a distant high pressure system in the central Atlantic and lack of a close high over the CONUS will lead to breezes shifting from light to moderate breezes for the next few days. In the absence of nearby strong pressure systems, breezes will peak and lull through Tuesday. Near nil shower chances will persist until Wednesday as an increase in moisture allows for possible showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period with minimal sky cover and near-nil rain chances. Near-surface winds will remain from the east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2024, the daily record high temperature of 92F was recorded in Key West. The same day also saw the daily record warm low temperature of 83F recorded at both Key West and Marathon. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872, and for Marathon back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 89 79 89 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 80 87 80 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest