Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
301 FXUS62 KKEY 051952 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 352 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 ...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 337 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the 18Z TAF period, but intermittent periods of MVFR, or lower, conditions may be seen at either terminal from approximately 19Z through 06Z as showers and thunderstorms will pop up across the area. Timing and precise location are unclear, so TAF amendments will be made as needed. Background winds will initially be out of the east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, and back to northeast to east tonight. However, showers and thunderstorms nearby may cause variable winds at times. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1046 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Weather conditions are fairly typical across the Florida Keys as we head into the afternoon hours! Automated surface observations show air temperatures near 90F, but heat indices are hovering around 100F. GOES-19 Visibile imagery shows just a handful of clouds across the forecast area, so don`t count on cloud cover to offer any relief just yet. Our KBYX radar is only detecting one, lone shower in the distant Florida Straits tracking northwestward toward the island chain. While it likely won`t make it to any of our island communities, this suggests that the environment is conducive to some activity. CAM guidance has consistently pointed to afternoon convection over the mainland triggering activity across our forecast area (the island chain and the nearby waters) during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The 12Z sounding from our office this morning shows a relatively moist environment, ample instability (ML CAPE of approximately 2400 J/kg), and a veering wind profile through the lower and mid levels. For these reasons, we will go ahead and continue to advertise the inherited chance (40%) PoPs. Just keep in mind that the 40% is more representative of the second half of today. No changes or updates are needed to the current forecast at this time. Expect a toasty and mostly sunny day, some showers and thunderstorms in the area this evening, and moisture gradually increasing over the next few days. && .MARINE... Issued at 1046 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A weak Atlantic surface ridge will remain nosed over South Florida through tonight promoting light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes. A weak tropical wave is expected to move over the Keys waters Wednesday into Wednesday night resulting in a period of more unsettled weather, while breezes remain light to gentle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 93 82 92 / 40 50 50 50 Marathon 83 91 82 90 / 40 50 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest