Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
861 FXUS62 KKEY 051850 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 250 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 What appears to be an extended period of wet and thundery conditions has commenced across the Florida Keys on this early October afternoon. KBYX radar is detecting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms sprinkled throughout the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters. This is in response to somewhat confluent flow at around 850 mb, coupled with a deep, tropical moisture tropospheric profile, limited convective inhibition, and falling geopotential heights sampled during this morning`s 12z sounding. Temperatures vary widely across the island chain, ranging from the upper 70s in rain-cooled locations, to the upper 80s in the dry communities. For tonight through Monday, forecast soundings suggest the deep, tropical moisture will not budge from the Keys. Falling heights associated with an upper-level trough to our northwest will provide additional forcing for synoptic ascent. The forecast now calls for likely PoPs for this forecast period, with bouts of high shower and thunder coverage sprinkled with dry windows while the atmospheric thermodynamic profile recharges. As of 130 PM EDT, the National Hurricane Center determined the area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico has gained sufficient organization to be declared Tropical Storm Milton. The forecast for the tropical storm is to intensify into a hurricane over the next forty- eight hours, and potentially even a major hurricane, before making landfall somewhere on the west coast of Florida. Although the center of the system is forecast to track north of the Florida Keys at this time, impacts will most certainly be felt, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. These impacts include strong squalls with at least tropical storm force gusts and possible coastal flooding. We urge residents and tourists to stay current with the latest forecasts over the upcoming days, and make preparations for potential impacts as soon as possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Florida Keys. Elevated seasonal tides along with back up of the Gulf Stream due to an area of low pressure near Bermuda will result in minor saltwater flooding. The minor flooding will be most noticeable around the times of high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with little relief outside of high tides in the Upper Keys. From synopsis, gentle east to southeast breezes will continue through the weekend, coupled with bouts of rainy and thundery conditions. Newly formed Tropical Storm Milton will further organize in the Gulf of Mexico, likely strengthening into a hurricane has it pivots eastward towards the western Florida Peninsula early next week. Regardless of the eventual strength and track of the system, an extended period of above normal rain and thunder chances along with freshening breezes and building seas are expected for the Florida Keys coastal waters early next week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Flight categories will continue to fluctuate between VFR and MVFR through much of the TAF period as showers and thunderstorms are tracking across the forecast area. TEMPOs and short term updates will be utilized over the course of the TAF period. Put in a brief break from VCSH starting at 02Z and lasting until approximately 12Z, but this may not come to fruition. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History in 1844, a violent hurricane moved northeast through the Straits. In Key West, the minimum pressure was 29.13 inches of mercury. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 88 80 87 / 60 60 60 60 Marathon 80 89 80 88 / 60 60 60 60 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest