Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
722 FXUS62 KKEY 091804 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 204 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -A wet and increasingly thundery weather pattern taking shape for tonight through Friday night, with the chance for measurable rainfall around 80%. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys. The combination of the current King Tide cycle and persistent bouts of rainfall will support additional flooding over roadways and low lying lots. Coastal flooding will likely continue into the weekend. -Drier air will filter in over the course of the weekend, offering the first taste of Florida Fall to the Keys. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Vicinity showers will continue at EYW and MTH through the late evening hours. Thereafter, expected increasing coverage of showers as well as thunder chances warrants a prevailing period of VCSH, along with a window for PROB30 thunder chances, first at EYW, then later at MTH. Near surface winds will gradually veer from the northeast to east to the east to southeast overnight through 18z on Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a low-level veering profile, coupled with ample tropospheric moisture extending from the surface up to around 600 mb, virtually no inhibition, and ample convective potential instability. Radar and satellite analysis depicts cyclonic flow saddling the Florida Keys, with mean low-level northeast to easterlies in the Lower Keys and east to southeasterlies in the Upper Keys associated with a slowly moving inverted trough. Given all of these features, it should come as no surprise that available KAMX and KBYX Doppler radar is detecting scattered to numerous showers and isolated brief embedded thunderstorms scattered across the Island Communities and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters. The inherited forecast calls for likely measurable rain chances through this afternoon, which seems appropriate. Any locally heavy downpours will exacerbate ongoing coastal flooding across the Keys, especially around the times of high tide. && .FORECAST... Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 A trough will continue to drag slowly through the area until sometime late Friday night or Saturday. The result will be on and off showers, an occasional, infrequent thunderstorm, and an increase in cloud cover. Background breezes will be light, generally 5 to 10 mph, but any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of interrupting that with gusty and erratic winds. There is some concern regarding areas of flooding along the Keys due to the current King Tide cycle, and the additional water from any moderate to heavier shower could exacerbate flooding on roadways or low lying lots. Use caution when traveling, and allow for additional time in case typical routes become impassable. Over the weekend, a low is expected to develop off of the Carolina coast. Its accompanying trough will dig into the southeastern U.S. and we may see the first cold front of the season. There is still some uncertainty related to how far south the front can make it, but MOS guidance is still hinting at dew points reaching the lower 70s or upper 60s as we enter the new work week. This could be the first taste of Florida Fall for the Keys! && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 A combination of seasonal King Tides, combined with elevated tidal anomalies, will support elevated high tides over the next several days. Mariners should account for less clearance under fixed bridges, especially around the times of the daily higher high tide. From synopsis, an inverted trough will remain in the vicinity of the Florida Keys marine zones over the next couple of days, supporting bouts of elevated rain chances. The proximity of the trough to the Keys will also maintain generally gentle northeast to east breezes. A developing area of low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will drive an early season cold front towards the Keys over the weekend, backing winds to the north to northeast. Northerly swells will be possible in our eastern marine zones late in the weekend into early next week due to the influence of the low pressure system. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest