662
FXUS62 KKEY 041815 AAA
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Key West FL
215 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025
Shower and thunderstorm coverage is on the wane across the Florida
Keys, and yet there remains a broken line approaching MTH. We
included a TEMPO -TSRA for MTH as the light to moderate decaying
rain shield scrapes through Vaca Key. Also there are new clusters
exiting the Dry Tortugas, but we are less confident these
showers/storms will survive the journey to EYW. The low-level
profile remains cyclonic and confluent, a recipe for maintaining
rain/thunder chances at both terminals through Saturday morning,
when drier air may arrive.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025
Water vapor imagery highlights a weak upper-level trough sagging
into the southeastern US and the northeastern Gulf of America.
A broad region of low-level cyclonic curvature stretches from the
Atlantic Bight to the eastern Gulf. The sharpest curvature is to
the east of Jacksonville where AL92 formed overnight. VIS/IR
sandwich imagery depicts cyclonic flow across the southeastern
Gulf that transitions into weakly confluent southwesterlies near
the Keys. The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled these southwesterlies from
near the surface to near 600 mb. The profile is moist,
uninhibited, and composed of moderate ML instability. Dewpoint
depressions between 900 and 500 mb range from 3-8 degC, and
indicative of the short life cycle of this morning`s scattered
thunderstorms. The updrafts freely convect, but end up quickly
entraining dry air. CIRA`s LPW 700-500 mb product places a narrow
ribbon of enhanced moisture across the Keys, with a potent dry
slug at the latitude of Fort Myers. This slug should pivot through
the Keys in the next 24 hours, possibly as early as Saturday
morning. Until then, 50% chance for showers/thunderstorms appears
to be appropriate. For this evening`s festivities, day time
heating should fully maintain the scattered coverage towards
sunset. LAV statistical and HREF lightning probabilities suggest
reduced coverage after dark. And yet, the confluent
southwesterlies will still be in place, so bring an umbrella, and
remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....CLR

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