Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
752 FXUS62 KKEY 271853 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 253 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Mostly sunny skies and freshening winds defined weather across the Florida Keys this afternoon. The KBYX radar observed short lived showers over the southern waters of the Florida Straits and GOES East shows only occasional cumulus closer to the island chain. Tonight, the story revolves around winds. The Key West Airport ASOS began recording gusts before noon, and measurements at the reef showed breezes have freshened. The culprit would be a 1030 mb high pressure system over the Carolina Coastline that is moving east into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, high cloud cover will start to sneak in aloft from showers in southern Texas aided by a shortwave trough over Mexico. Overnight, expect breezy to windy conditions to set up amidst mostly clear skies. For now, those in the Florida Keys can enjoy some stargazing. The big forecast challenge of this product cycle revolves around shower coverage and potential thunderstorms over the weekend. Model ensembles show the shortwave trough weakening while it moves across the northern Gulf, but model soundings suggest sufficient CAPE for shower coverage. Low to mid level moisture transport variables indicate showers would not be entraining extremely dry air. The question then comes to lift, which is the least clear component for Saturday and Sunday. Easterly to Southeasterly winds suggest any topographic effects will be limited to outflow boundaries coming off Cuba and Andros, which would favor thunderstorms overnight. However, a surface high moving east into the Atlantic means winds will slacken from west to east and provide a eastward moving source of lift. After all of that, confidence is high enough to include thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday through Sunday. When exactly thunderstorms will develop and where is not clear right now, check back tomorrow for more detailed updates. Shower coverage and winds will diminish Sunday night as the Atlantic high moves further east. While the high migrates towards Europe, a surface low is expected to form in the northeastern US by Monday. Resulting weather for the CWA is that gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes are expected across the island chain next week. The most notable object of interest here would be temperatures warmer than usual thanks to the southeasterlies. Hopefully, the atmosphere will give boaters a reprieve next week as we shift into Spring weather patterns. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Small Craft Advisories are in effect across all Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the Carolina coastline began freshening breezes across the Florida Keys waters with fresh to strong breezes expected tonight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Breezes are forecast to remain fresh to strong until Friday night, and a gradual slackening of winds is expected during the weekend. Shower chances are highest Saturday through Sunday with possible thunderstorms, mostly in waters east of the Gulf. Breezes are expected to diminish to gentle by Monday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the overnight. Surface winds have freshened with frequent gusts to near 20 knots out of the ENE. Winds will continue to increase through the overnight while becoming more easterly. Winds will peak Friday afternoon through Friday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 72 82 72 82 / 0 10 30 30 Marathon 72 81 73 82 / 0 10 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest