Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
419 FXUS62 KKEY 010843 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 443 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights a ridge-trough couplet over the CONUS, northwest of a series of TUTT cells stretching west- southwest from the central Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico. These cells resemble a layer of bearings between the mid-latitude westerlies to the north and the tropical easterlies to the south. The CIMMS mid to upper-level vorticity analyses place a lengthy vort lobe across the Bahamas with varying levels of depth. Consequently, the low-level ridge is fractured into a broad and sloppy trough near the Keys. The most recent CIMMS 700 mb analysis shows a cyclonic node to the northwest of the Keys, but this is likely a relic from yesterday`s convection. Current radar loops suggest a new cyclonic node is over the Straits of Florida. Storm motions near the Cay Sal Bank are to the northwest while motions along the Reef are to the west to southwest. And yet, most island communities have remained dry this morning. Temperatures are near 80 and dewpoints are in the upper 70s. .FORECAST... Radar trends suggest another day of unsettled weather is on tap for the Florida Keys. The low-level cyclonic curvature in the Straits will spread to the northwest today and tonight. For now we advertise 60% rain/thunder chances for today, although the 40% for tonight may need to be reassessed as the southeasterlies on the back side of the axis will be confluent and juiced. A brief window of slightly drier weather will take hold Tuesday night into Wednesday. The forecast track for Hurricane Beryl calls for the storm to move west-northwest through the Western Caribbean Wednesday through Thursday. As Beryl makes its closest approach, easterlies will freshen. There remains some uncertainty in the size of Beryl as it nears the Yucatan Peninsula, so Small Craft Advisories may be required. In the wake of Beryl, a second tropical wave will strafe through Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by freshening easterlies across the Florida Keys. Aside from the slight chances Tuesday night, much of the extended will feature near normal (~30%) rain/thunder chances and seasonal humidity. Given the deep tap of tropical moisture, dewpoints will climb into the upper 70s. Combined with highs at times in the lower 90s, Heat Advisories may be required during some periods this week. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Hurricane Beryl will remain south of the Florida Keys as it marches west northwest through the Caribbean Sea Tuesday through Thursday. Breezes will freshen Wednesday and Wednesday night as Beryl makes its closest approach. Please review the Tropical Cyclone Advisories for additional information on the track and future evolution of Beryl. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will pulse up and down in the vicinity of the EYW and MTH through about 30/18Z. Bouts of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected near showers along with gusty winds. Periods of VFR conditions will occur over the terminals, but hi res models show no agreement on when showers will wane. TEMPOs and amendments will be added as needed. Outside of showers, near- surface winds will veer southeasterly just below 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1966, a daily record rainfall of 2.44" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 82 91 83 / 60 40 20 20 Marathon 88 83 91 83 / 60 40 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest