Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
249 FXUS62 KKEY 150817 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 417 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight rain chances expected for the next several days as dry air dominates the Florida Keys. -Humidity levels will be below normal until late Friday to early Saturday. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida Keys. -The Coastal Flood Advisory for the Upper Keys has been cancelled as water levels have fallen below advisory criteria. However, minor coastal flooding will remain possible. -Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located in the central Atlantic, will not be a threat to the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 423 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Morning across the Florida Keys will open with mostly sunny skies as a deep plume of dry, sinking air moves down the Florida Peninsula. CIMSS derived Precipitable Water imagery shows an air mass near 1.1 inches over Southern Florida while 1.7 to 1.8 inches was sampled over the Florida Straits. One can follow the moisture gradient from the Straits northeastward to a marine low off the North Carolina coastline. Breezes along the reef are still moderate to fresh. Temperature observations along the island chain dropped into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Current conditions suggest the feature of most concern today will be Coastal Flooding. While peak tides are past for this lunar cycle, mariners should still expect less clearance under overpasses and saltwater flooding is possible. .FORECAST... Numerical models forecast the atmospheric moisture gradient will be closer to Cuba than the Florida Keys. While scattered showers will still be possible at times before the weekend over the Florida Straits, the current pattern suggests the rest of the work week will be drier than normal. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will weaken as the marine low moves eastward. A high pressure system sinking southeast over the eastern CONUS from the Great Lakes will allow winds to increase Friday to Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is possible over the weekend, but it depends on the high. Looking ahead a bit further, a low pressure system may develop over the midwest on Sunday while an upper level trough digs south towards Texas. The resulting upper level winds would become westerly to southwesterly and redirect tropical moisture back across the Keys. However, that is about five to six days out during the later part of the rainy season. The atmosphere can do funny things during this kind of weather pattern, and we will be here to provide additional updates. && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for all coastal waters of the Florida Keys except for Florida Bay. From synopsis, an early season northeaster is developing east of the Carolinas as a high pressure system starts to sink southeastward into the eastern CONUS. Breezes will slacken from moderate to fresh in the early morning to moderate later tonight as the pressure gradient weakens. Expect a tighter pressure gradient to develop tomorrow night to Friday, and fresh breezes are possible during the first half of the weekend. Drier air pushing south from the eastern CONUS will keep shower coverage at isolated to scattered. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. While a passing shower can`t be ruled out, they should be few and far between. Winds will remain from the northeast near 10 knots, slackening a bit by late morning. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1889, the daily record cold high temperature of 75F was recorded at Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 30 Marathon 85 75 84 76 / 10 10 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest