Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
275 FXUS62 KKEY 040253 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1053 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1052 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 It has been another quiet night for the Florida Keys. We had a late afternoon broken cloud line come to life off the Lower Keys. Convection started over Big Pine Key and slowly zipped down the Lower Keys. It fell apart right over Boca Chica and did not make it to Key West or Stock Island proper. Since then the radar has been quite dead with the nearest cluster of activity developing southwest of Andros Island. Looking at MIMIC TPW satellite imagery moisture is slowly creeping in from the east. It is likely that the convection we see going up southwest of Andros is the leading edge of this moisture plume. Despite the influx of moisture, we still lack organized forcing. What we do have is the beginnings of a weak nocturnal surge. This could lend enough speed convergence to allow for pop up showers and thunderstorms overnight. Given the isolated coverage, have opted to keep PoPs at 20 percent for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 1052 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 A weak Atlantic surface ridge will remain nosed over South Florida for the next few days promoting generally light east to southeasterly breezes. Shifts to this feature`s position through the forecast period will result in some days having fresher breezes than others. A weak tropical wave is expected to encroach the Keys waters by the midweek resulting in a period of more unsettled weather. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected to be the predominant outside of any convection overnight or Monday morning. There is a threat for isolated showers to develop, mainly after midnight, however, confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest