Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
772 FXUS62 KKEY 280828 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 428 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Since KBYX radar is out of service for the time being, we are using KAMX radar since it covers virtually all the Florida Keys forecast area. KAMX radar shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the Florida Keys early this morning with most of this activity across the nearshore and offshore waters to the north and south of the Island Chain. Occasionally, a shower or storm moves across the Chain. The activity has been persistent for the past few hours across the northern offshore Gulf waters with the activity to the south of the Chain across the Straits developing over the last hour or two. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows partly cloudy skies across the Keys with most of the cloud cover associated with the ongoing convection mainly across the nearshore and offshore waters to the north and south of the Island Chain. Temperatures along the Island Chain remain quite warm in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The temperatures have already recovered in the areas that had rain last evening. An early season Canadian high pressure is currently centered over the Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia and is beginning to phase with the surface subtropical high over the central Atlantic Ocean. The Keys remain on the southern flank of this ridge. As a result, marine platforms surrounding the Keys are observing east to southeast breezes of 5 to 10 knots and Island Chain communities observing 5 to 10 mph. .FORECAST... The pattern for the next several days can be summed up quite easily in that it will be wet. Also, this is climatologically favored to have showers and thunderstorms each day especially as we go through September. Average rain chances peak during the month of September. The catalyst to this pattern will be a stalled boundary that will meander about northern to central and to south Florida acting as a warm front and then a cool front at times. In addition, a ridge over the central Atlantic will continue to funnel in moisture to the Keys as the moisture moves around southwestern periphery of the ridge. As this is happening the stalled boundary to our north and the ridge acting in conjunction with one another will pool the moisture across much of Florida resulting in slightly above normal to above normal rain chances throughout the next several days. As a result, we advertise 40% and 50% throughout the forecast. However, it is too difficult to determine still which periods will be wetter, but there is the chance that some days may feature much higher rain chances especially as we get into the holiday weekend and then early next week. Also, some guidance is showing this frontal boundary shifting southward towards the middle of next week which will result in winds clocking around the compass potentially becoming west to northwest for a time. In summary, expect a much wetter pattern for the last few days of August and into the first few days of September (even more so than it already has), cloudier conditions, and slightly cooler temperatures. && .MARINE... Issued at 428 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, an early season Canadian high pressure system will continue to traverse the eastern United States over the next few days. As it does, it will enhance the pressure gradient slightly across the Florida Keys marine zones. As a result, expect light to gentle, except gentle to moderate breezes across the Straits of Florida today and tonight. As the high moves into the Atlantic late week and over the weekend, breezes will slacken. Increased moisture will support higher shower and thunderstorm coverage by through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Rain chances are possible throughout the day as showers pop up and dissipate across the CWA. VCSH is included after sunrise at both terminals. Near surface will be east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 1856, the Isaac Allerton was wrecked by a Category 1 hurricane, that was moving long the northern portion of Cuba, off the Saddlebunch Keys, grounding on Washerwoman shoal. The ensuing salvage proved the Allerton to be the richest wrecking operation in Key West history. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 90 81 / 30 50 40 40 Marathon 91 82 91 81 / 40 50 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest