923
FXUS62 KKEY 150250
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1050 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Slight rain chances expected for the next several days as dry
 air dominates the Florida Keys.

-Humidity levels will be below normal through most of the week.

-A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida
 Keys.

-The Coastal Flood Advisory for the Upper Keys has been cancelled
 as water levels have fallen below advisory criteria. However,
 minor coastal flooding will remain possible.

-Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located in the central Atlantic, will not
 be a threat to the Keys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

It has been a relatively quiet evening for the Florida Keys. A
boundary across the outer Straits of Florida has been producing
showers off and on for the last several hours. No lightning has
been detected in any of these showers. Otherwise, high pressure
building into the eastern half of the U.S. has begun freshening
our winds. Currently seeing moderate to fresh breezes across most
if not all of our reporting sites.

Accompanying this high pressure is additional dry air and
therefore, rain chances will be limited to the Straits of Florida
overnight. Tide levels have finally fallen enough that the Coastal
Flood Advisory that was in place for the Upper Keys has been
cancelled and replace with a Coastal Flood Statement. The Middle
and Lower Keys remain in a Coastal Flood Statement as minor
saltwater flooding will occur during the times of the higher high
tide. Otherwise, no other changes were needed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Moderate to fresh breezes are moving across all of the Florida
Keys coastal waters. Therefore Small Craft Exercise Caution
headlines are in effect for all waters for the overnight. From
synopsis: a low pressure system continues to push off and away
from the Eastern Seaboard, while a high pressure system builds
over the eastern United States. This will result in moderate to
fresh breezes overnight. Slackening winds are expected on
Wednesday as the low moves further east across the North Atlantic.
By the end of the week, high pressure will set up along the
Carolina coast and support freshening breezes. Expect peak breezes
during the late evening to mornings, and lulls in the afternoons.
Shower coverage will remain isolated to scattered.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions expected with breezy northeast to east winds
overnight. Breezes will slacken during the day on Wednesday with
continued dry conditions.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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