Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
428 FXUS62 KKEY 010905 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 505 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 505 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 It has certainly been a tumultuous overnight across most of the Florida Keys. A slew of boundaries from all direction converged and collided across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. But even with all the activity that has occurred and remains ongoing, the Middle Keys have missed out on most of the precipitation. The Upper Keys picked up 1 to 3 inches, with the Lower Keys picking up a half to one inch thus far. The Middle Keys have seen at most around a tenth of an inch. There remains a healthy cluster still across the Straits of Florida but we are observing a noticeable downward trend on radar. Where it has rained, temperatures took a tumble down into the mid 70s, a nice reprieve from the milder lower 80s. Going forward today, most of our rain chances will be limited to this morning. As we go into the afternoon, a TUTT cell located off the east coast of Florida will continue a northward trek. As this feature pulls further away from the Keys, the low level steering flow will go more southerly. This coupled with relatively drier air pivoting around the periphery of a sprawling Atlantic Ridge, will provide lower rain chances this afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile, lurking along the entire Eastern Seaboard is a quasi- stalled trough and associated surface boundary that stretches into the northeastern Gulf. These features will very slowly slide southeast and across the Florida Peninsula through Saturday. Given the slow progression, it will take time for the Florida Keys to see much in the way of increased rain chances. As of right now, better rain chances return Friday, peaking Friday night into Saturday. Thereafter, a potent upper level shortwave diving southward will move into the base of this trough and strengthen into potentially a closed-off low. This will interact with the lingering surface boundary. That being said, there remains a lot of uncertainty as to what this interaction will ultimately produce. GFS has a surface low develop off the Georgia/Carolina coast, while the ECMWF has an inverted trough in the same region. Regardless, this poses no immediate threat to the Keys at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 505 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week. An upper-level low north of the Bahamas will continue to move slowly northwestward towards the Florida east coast early this week, supporting slightly enhanced rain and thunder chances. Rain chances will briefly taper back mid-week before increasing again late this week due to a new weather disturbance sliding into the Southeast United States. && .AVIATION... Issued at 505 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Overnight showers and storms near the island chain have dissipated, with the atmosphere needing to recharge before another round possibly develops. While rain chances are higher than normal, uncertainty in location and timing of developing showers will leave mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be generally out of the east at near 10 knots, gradually slackening later today. && .OF NOTE... On this day in 1957, the Key West Weather Bureau moved to the airport. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 90 81 / 60 30 20 10 Marathon 88 82 88 82 / 50 30 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest