Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
424 FXUS62 KKEY 071727 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 127 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Showers continue to move through the coastal waters and will occasionally pass over the island chain, therefore, VCSH is included at both terminals. If direct impacts are expected TEMPOs will be added. Near surface winds are east at 5 to 10 knots. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1114 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A pretty busy morning is occurring for the Florida Keys with KBYX radar detecting widely scattered showers all over the coastal waters. While a majority of shower activity has remained over water, the island chain has seen brief heavy downpours in various locations. This morning`s 12z sounding has once again measured over 2 inches of precipitable water meaning we remain in a very wet environment. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 80s, with winds across the Reef observed at 5 to 10 knots. For the rest of the day, showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through our area, therefore, the 60% PoPs in the forecast are appropriate. Winds will continue to be mostly east at 5 to 10 knots before increasing to near 10 knots later this afternoon into the evening. && .FORECAST... Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A brief lull in shower activity near the start of the overnight shift is already behind us as our KBYX radar has been busy detecting the increase in showers across our forecast area over the past few hours. A few automated observations along the island chain have reported anywhere from a trace of rainfall to just over a tenth of an inch, but radar estimates suggest some moderate showers over the local waters have produced approximately half of an inch to near one inch of rainfall. CIMSS MIMIC PWAT shows values near 2 inches across the area, so it seems reasonable to see rainfall amounts like this. Temperatures are sitting mostly in the lower 80s, but a few showers that have just crossed the Marathon area have brought temperatures there down into the upper 70s. Dew points are in the mid to upper 70s, so we would like to take this opportunity to refer to the air as "gross". If you`re looking for some relief, you will have to hang in there a little longer. An area of low pressure is idling over the Bahamas, but it`s important to note that this is not an area of tropical interest. Over the next few days, it will slowly pull westward across our area. This will result in an uptick in both moisture and shower activity. Forecast soundings suggest we may be a little too saturated for significant thunderstorm coverage, so we will continue to advertise only a slight chance of thunder. The slow progression of this low means that persistent, steady rainfall will be possible. While this isn`t necessarily an issue over the water, any island communities experiencing relentless rainfall will be more likely to see flooding as this is occurring at the same time as King Tides. Flooding risk will have to be monitored in near real time as the intensity of each shower will have to be considered. This forecast package will show PoPs fluctuating between 50 and 60 percent through Friday, but actual precipitation will likely resemble an on-and-off pattern as dynamics change aloft. Global model guidance continues to show a very amplified ridge over the western half of the U.S. with an accompanying trough developing over the rest of the country. As this trough deepens into the southeast, a cold front will start to descend through southern states and into Florida. A tighter gradient will lead to increased breezes, which are not in our current forecast, but they are showing up in marine forecasts from our neighboring Florida forecast offices. It is still too early to narrow down where the front ends up, but some ensemble members are resolving dew points in the lower 70s as far south as Key West, indicating that the front may reach us. Even though confidence is low, this means that relief may be on the way! && .MARINE... Issued at 1114 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a combination of a stationary frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure still situated near the Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern through the next several days. This will maintain above normal rain chances through the entire forecast period. The lax gradient will help to keep winds near gentle to moderate, but direction will fluctuate between the northeast and southeast at times. At this time, the strongest breezes look to stay confined to the northern portions of our deep Gulf waters, but we will continue to monitor model forecast trends. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest