769
FXUS62 KKEY 151750
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
150 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Shower activity over MTH results in a TEMPO for MVFR CIGs
and VIS as a few rounds of showers will pass over the terminal
over the next hour or so. Near surface winds will be light and
mostly southeast to south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
KBYX radar has remained busy this morning into now. Across the
island chain, things have started to trend down as a majority of
the stronger activity is now in the distant Straits. Due to cloudy
conditions seen on GOES-19 Satelitte, temperatures are still in
the lower 80s for those not currently raining and the mid 70s for
island communities still experiencing rain. Outside of convective
winds, the Reef is recording winds from 5 to 10 knots, but due to
nearing shower activity the directions vary depending on where
you`re located. This afternoon, winds will become more uniform of
southeast to east but remaining at 5 to 10 knots. Shower activity
for the Lower Keys and their surrounding waters will continue to
reduce in strength and coverage while in the Upper Keys moving the
opposite direction towards the islands, and could result in more
measurable rain. No changes were necessary to the current forecast
package.

&&

.FORECAST...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
The focus for today through Wednesday continues to be on the
aforementioned low pressure to the east of the Space Coast this
morning. The National Hurricane Center currently gives this system
a 40% chance of development over the next 48 hours and 7 days.
While the core of this low pressure system is expected to remain
well north of the Keys, there will be plenty of cyclonic
vorticity/vort maxes rotating around the system resulting in
another round of showers and thunderstorms throughout the Keys
today. Therefore, 80% chance of rain remains in the forecast for
today. The vort maxes will continue to slowly move off to the west
as the system moves towards the North Gulf Coast. However, this
will continue to keep grips on the Keys through Wednesday
resulting in 60% chance for rain tonight across the Keys with 70%
for Wednesday due to a bit more rigorous upper level energy
coupled with daytime heating. Any storms will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has the Keys
highlighted in a marginal risk (Level 1 out of 4) for today.

A more typical summer time pattern returns for the second half of
the week and into the weekend. High pressure over the Atlantic
builds into Florida bringing a return to the east to
southeasterlies along with moisture undulations moving around the
western periphery of the high. As a result, expect rain chances
of 40% for Wednesday night and 50% for Thursday due to a slight
uptick in the moisture before rain chances return to around normal
for late week and into the weekend. Rain chances might even dip
slightly below normal to around 20% some periods. Also, it will
for sure be summer with highs near 90 degrees and overnight lows
in the lower 80s. Heat index values are expected to range from
102-107 degrees through this period which is just under Heat
Advisory criteria.

Towards the end of the extended, model guidance is beginning to
show signs of a TUTT- Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough moving
westward into the Keys to start early next week. This TUTT cell
will originate over the western North Atlantic near the Bahamas
before migrating westward. This may result in an uptick in rain
chances to start the new work week, though, this remains uncertain
right now. The timing, strength, and exact movement of this cell
will be ironed out over subsequent forecast cycles.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, weak low pressure
continues to become better organized in the vicinity of the Space
Coast. However, the overall pressure pattern remains rather weak,
therefore, light to gentle southeast to south breezes are expected
to continue this afternoon. In addition, another round of showers
and thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon with the
main threats being gusty winds and confused seas near convection.
As the weak low pressure shifts off to the west and into the Gulf,
high pressure will build in behind it strengthening the pressure
gradient. This will lead to gentle to moderate breezes tonight.
High pressure remains anchored over the central Atlantic with its
western periphery extending into the Keys through the weekend with
gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continuing,
occasionally becoming moderate to fresh.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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