Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
974 FXUS62 KKEY 290253 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1053 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 It has been a much quieter evening than yesterday across the Florida Keys. This morning and afternoon`s convective burst fizzled into mostly cloudy stratiform skies. While some of this cloud cover has faded, it persisted long enough to hinder a full recharge of the atmosphere. Also absent from this evening was an organized source of lift. The MCV that triggered yesterday and today`s rounds of robust thunderstorms has drifted west into the Gulf of Mexico. The lift sources remaining are a few ghostly boundaries that have only mustered some pulses of widely scattered to isolated precipitation. The broken line of showers currently drifting through the Straits of Florida south of the Dry Tortugas is the most organized structure observed since this afternoon. Unfortunately, current temperatures are still similar to yesterday as they clock in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes persist along the Reef and are still recovering from the wake of unsettled weather. Tonight is set to match the pattern of the last few nights. While a few showers are still pulsing in our area, CAMs suggest a nocturnal reinvigoration of convection in the early morning hours. This could be inspired by an uptick in gradient winds as they have yet to fully recover after today`s activity. Otherwise, no significant mesoscale or synoptic influences are on the short term horizon. A low level ridge to our north will keep breezes easterly and gentle to moderate allowing for the continued stream of moisture in from the tropics. As such, we continue to forecast high end chance PoPs into tomorrow with our wet season atmosphere allowing for rain with any nudge of lift it can find. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge stretching into the southeastern United States and Florida will generally remain in place through the upcoming holiday weekend with only subtle shifts in placement. Therefore, expect mostly gentle to moderate easterly breezes occasionally east to southeast. A weak trough is expected to move northwestward towards the Keys over the weekend resulting in a slight uptick in southeasterly breezes and a period of unsettled weather. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH tonight. Convective activity has simmered down from earlier today and has remained muted due to a lack of organized forcing. While a stray shower cannot be ruled out at either terminal, VCSH returns in the early morning hours as a guess to when nocturnal development will occur near the island chain. Near surface winds will be out of the east at near 10 knots, becoming east to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 90 81 90 / 60 60 60 50 Marathon 81 90 81 91 / 50 50 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest