Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
983 FXUS62 KKEY 300231 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1031 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the Florida Peninsula and through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This has brought in light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys. Winds are being somewhat bolstered by a weak wave advancing westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Deep layered ridging remains in control with 500 mb heights just above 591 hPa. Precipitable water is around 2 inches, however, there are is quite a bit dry air through the depth with a nose of warmer lower level air. While inhibition is very weak, all of the above has been sufficient to keep all convective activity well away from the Keys and almost entirely out of the forecast area. Seasonably warm conditions continue with temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Short Term Update - The surface through lower level ridge will pivot slightly northward through the overnight period as the weak wave in the Caribbean pushes further westward. Overall, this will have limited effect on local winds which are expected to remain light to gentle out of the east to southeast. Lower level moisture is expected to increase slightly thanks to the wave. In addition, the weak inhibition is anticipated to weaken further. As a result, a few showers and thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out for the overnight period. Will maintain the currently advertised slight chance PoPs. Expect overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s with dew points remaining in the upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 An Atlantic ridge stretching across Florida will maintain light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period. No changes made in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the overnight period. Winds will be light to gentle out of the east to southeast. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest