002
FXUS62 KKEY 041436
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1036 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025
Yet another windy and warm day is underway across the Florida Keys
this morning. While winds have slackened somewhat from last night,
fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast breezes are
observed along our offshore marine observation platforms.
Temperatures across the island chain have already breached 80
degrees while retaining humid dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
One difference from yesterday at this time is the increased cloud
cover over our CWA. KBYX radar detects a spattering of light
showers in and around the waters surrounding the Lower and Middle
Keys making for an even more oppressive and moist feeling day than
yesterday.

High pressure in the western North Atlantic continues to control
our sensible weather pattern in the short term. East to southeast
breezes will prevail through today and freshen once again tonight.
While shower coverage has increased, its not necessarily due to
increased moisture as total PW has decreased from yesterday`s 12z
sounding but more likely due to the erosion of a low level
inversion. This is not to say that showers will be able to get any
stronger though as there is still a large chunk of dry air
observed above 850 mb and general subsidence aloft. Showers that
do develop will not likely produce measurable precipitation if
they cross over land resulting in near nil PoPs for the rest of
the day. Despite initial winds being nudged lower to match
current conditions, the forecast remains on track with no other
changes required at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters of
the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a pronounced high pressure
system over the North Atlantic continues to sustain fresh to
strong east to southeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys
waters. Breezes will begin to slacken Sunday morning as a low
pressure system deepens over the eastern United States. Shower
chances will stay near nil until next week when a frontal passage
may occur sometime around Tuesday to Wednesday. Lightning
probabilities are absent from the forecast at this time due to the
uncertain strength of the potential front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025
VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH for the 12Z TAF period.
Additional cloud cover and brief periods of MVFR CIGs will require
TEMPOs today with a stray measurable shower possible near both
terminals. Near surface east southeasterly winds winds of 15 to 20
knots will persist with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1987, the daily record low temperature of 52F was
recorded in Marathon. This is also the coldest temperature recorded
in April for the Marathon area. Temperature records for
Marathon date back to 1951.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  85  76  84  76 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  83  77  84  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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