Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
514 FXUS62 KKEY 230301 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1001 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 A similar synoptic pattern to last evening continues over the Keys, with surface high pressure over the central U.S. and deep mid/upper cyclone with complex surface features across the Northeast into the adjacent north Atlantic. Winds had backed earlier this evening across the Keys and were presently north- northwest near 10 mph with frequent gusts 15 to 20 mph across much of the lower and middle Keys. The far upper Keys actually decoupled earlier this evening, with the AWOS at Ocean Reef actually below 5 mph for several hours before suddenly picking back up. Just like last evening, temperatures were in the upper 60s to around 70 except in the mid 60s in the Key Largo/Ocean Reef area. Statocumulus once again was limited to passing areas over the Lower Keys. The evening sounding showed an increased in moisture over the past 24 hours of about 2 tenths of an inch precipitable water, all trapped under an 6C inversion based just above 3500 ft. Water vapor imagery indicates the 500 mb troffing continues to dig roughly along the longitude of the Florida Peninsula, with 200 mb heights still falling. Southwest winds continue to increase aloft, and indeed it`s been awhile since we`ve seen a west-southwest maximum wind of 113 knots, currently around 190 mb. Mesoscale guidance has favored a quicker retreat of the thin layer of lower tropospheric moisture over the Gulf faster than the globals, with continuation of the backing low level flow albeit weaker. Given forecast low temperatures in the lower 50s just inland with Bay temperatures mostly in the lower 70s, a density surge/enhanced landbreeze is once again likely impacting the Upper Keys for several hours early Saturday morning. Some adjustments were made late this afternoon to account, and no changes appears necessary at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Mostly northwest winds were noted this evening across the Florida Keys coast waters, with speeds near 15 knots along the reef, Florida Bay, and at exposed onshore Gulfside locations. After a lull along the far Upper Keys, wind speeds had picked up in the past hour likely approaching 15 knots. Signficant seas at the CDIP buoy southwest of Sand Key were near 4 feet with a period of 8 seconds from the west, likely including a continuing swell originating from the Gulf. From synopsis, northwest to north breezes will slowly slacken to moderate, occasionally gentle, over the weekend. Breezes will gradually veer to the northeast to east by midweek as a broad high pressure system becomes established over the southeastern United States. Dry weather will persist across the Florida Keys waters through Monday with a possibility of isolated showers, mainly over the Florida Straits, on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at EYW and MTH overnight and through Saturday. North-northwest winds near 10 knots with gusts 15 to 18 knots will likely continue overnight, then veering to north-northeast by late Saturday morning while steadily decreasing. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JR Aviation/Nowcasts....JR Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest