323
FXUS62 KKEY 100930
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
530 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 530 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Hurricane Milton is about to emerge back off the Atlantic Coast of
Florida this morning. The storm remains a Category 1 Hurricane
with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and higher gusts. It
continues moving northeast at 18 mph. The storm no longer poses a
threat to the Keys and all Tropical Warnings have been
discontinued. Marine platforms around the Keys have seen breezes
gradually decrease overnight. Latest observations show the
eastern marine platforms observing the highest breezes with 20 to
25 knots with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Sand Key is
observing near 20 knots with gusts near 25 knots. Island Chain
communities have also come down with the Middle and Upper Keys
observing near 20 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph while the
Lower Keys are observing 15 to 20 mph. KBYX radar is detecting a
few isolated light showers across the northern offshore waters
moving from northwest to southeast. The weak front behind Milton
has pushed through the Keys resulting breezes shifting to the
west to northwest. Due to this, it feels a little more refreshing
out there with dew points in the lower to mid 70s compared to
being in the lower 80s yesterday morning.

.FORECAST...
As Milton continues moving away, expect breezy to windy
conditions out of the southwest to west through this morning.
Winds are expected to continue to decrease through the day while
shifting to the northwest. Winds further decrease this evening
with any breezy conditions likely having ended by midnight tonight
across the Island Chain. Regarding moisture, slightly drier air
being pulled southward behind Milton will lend to slight chances
(20%) for today and tonight due to a weak frontal boundary having
pushed through. However, this front has not gone far and is
expected to stall over the Straits of Florida. Also, instability
is expected to be very low and statistical guidance agrees that
the thunder threat isn`t quite there. Therefore, removed thunder
from the forecast for the today and tonight period.

Interestingly, some moisture is expected to be left behind by
Milton in the low to mid levels. This is expected to slowly move
southward towards the Keys late Friday leading to the beginning
of the increase in rain chances. In addition, thunder will come
back into the forecast as instability increases throughout the
Keys. As we head through the weekend and into early next week, we
expect this frontal boundary to continue to be stretched out as a
weak upper trough to the north and ridging to the south collide
over the Keys and South Florida. Therefore, rising moisture from
the south and then the moisture from the north interacting with
the frontal boundary will lead to the increasing rain chances.
With not much movement expected, these two features are expected
to continue to battle each other with neither one making much
headway. As a result, PoPs were increased across the board for
Friday night through Monday night. Friday night to Saturday night
was increased to 40% from 30% with Sunday through Monday night
(40%-->50%).

A fairly significant mid-latitude trough is expected to dip
southward with an attendant surface cold front early to the
middle part of next week. There remains uncertainty as to exactly
how far south this front will push and exactly what the extended
forecast will bring. Right now, we can say that a front will be
nearby, potentially pushing through and going south of us, or also
stalling right over us. Due to this, the PoP forecast is very
uncertain and bound to change along with the wind forecast. There
could be a period of breezy to windy conditions. Stay tuned!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Hurricane Milton continues to move away from the area
and is about to emerge back out over Atlantic east of the Space
Coast. Breezes have come down substantially through the night and
will continue to slacken through today. All Tropical Warnings have
been discontinued, replaced by a Small Craft Advisory. While
these advisories will likely come down in the not to distant
future for much of the area, it will likely be held through Friday
night in the eastern Florida Straits due to residual northerly
swells. Surface high pressure will move across the Tennessee
Valley and then off the Southeast Coast over the weekend and into
early next week. As a result, expect gentle to moderate northeast
to east breezes through the weekend. However, there may be a
period of moderate to fresh breezes Friday and Friday night for
the offshore Gulf waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Hurricane Milton will race east northeastward today into the
Atlantic and further away from the Keys. As a result, conditions in
the Keys will continue to improve. Fresh westerly breezes will
continue to trend downwards. Shower potential will be drastically
lower today. However, spells of MVFR ceilings will continue to be
possible.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076-
     077.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Coordinator/Hazards..CJ
Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....11

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