255
FXUS62 KKEY 290220
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1020 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major coastal flooding will continue across the Keys during the
  next several tidal cycles. Coastal flooding will gradually
  decrease later this week, but receding rates may be slow,
  especially in the Upper Keys.

- Breezes are expected to slacken to light to gentle
  northeasterlies during the rest of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Surface through lower level ridging stretches across the
southeastern United States. Meanwhile, a weak disorganized area of
low pressure remains centered roughly over Cuba. As a result,
northeasterly breezes have come down to light to gentle across the
island chain through the day and evening. Despite the presence of
the low, forcing has been weak, and this evenings sounding
indicated limited CAPE and some drier layers through the lower
levels. As a result, shower activity has been spotty and relegated
primarily to the outer Florida Straits and far deep gulf waters.
Dew points have surged over the past 24 hours and are now in the
mid 70s. Temperatures are slowly falling through 80 degrees.

The weak low will continue to loose definition through the
overnight period, but will keep breezes light to gentle
northeasterly over the island chain. Breezes will tend gentle to
moderate over the deep gulf waters where the pressure gradient is
tighter. Overall convective forcing is expected to remain limited
and forecast soundings keep CAPE limited with some drying through
the lower levels. As a result, will keep slight chance PoPs for
the overnight period. Expect lows to settle into the upper 70s for
most island locations with dew points remain in the mid 70s. As a
result, it will feel much more sticky and humid tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The combination of a ridge across the southeast and a weak low
centered over Cuba will maintain light to gentle northeasterly
breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period. The
exception to this will be gentle to moderate northeasterlies on
our deep gulf waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.
With that said, there will be a chance for MVFR ceilings due to
passing stratocumulus. Surface winds will be light to gentle out
of the northeast.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning for FLZ076>078.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....DM

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