Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
270 FXUS62 KKEY 111742 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 142 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New AVIATION, PREV MARINE AND DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of the terminals for the next several hours. A general mention of VCSH is included in the TAFs for now for this period, with specific impacts to be left to possible short-fused amendments and TEMPOs. Near- surface winds will remain out of the east to southeast, modestly freshening this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1047 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, an Atlantic Ridge will continue to build westward and across the Keys. This will result in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes over the next couple of days. The ridge will buckle briefly mid week, allowing for breezes to slacken temporarily. Breezes freshen to gentle to moderate once again towards the end of the week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 A lingering moisture surge,coupled with modestly freshened and veered boundary layer winds, have promoted more than expected scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage this morning. Given radar trends, elected to nudge measurable rain chances to high-end chance levels for the first period, with many island communities receiving over a tenth of an inch of rainfall. Looking upstream in the eastern Straits of Florida, shower coverage appears to be much more limited, as dry air sampled in satellite- derived total precipitable water products continues to filter towards the Keys. The forecast calls for waning rain chances after the early afternoon hours. Although temperatures will take a bit to rebound, ample late afternoon solar insolation should provide a window for temperatures to quickly climb to the upper 80s again today. Other than the aforementioned nudge upward in PoPs, no other changes proposed for this late morning update package. && .FORECAST... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 As the ridge continues to nose in this morning, we will see a brief surge in winds that are expected to come down this afternoon. Additional isolated to scattered showers will be possible as the ridge noses in. Thereafter, we will go to generally an east to southeast summer time typical flow. Embedded in this flow will be the pockets of relatively dry air, which will at times limit convection. Have trended PoPs through the next 7 days towards a middle of the road approach. The GFS has consistently lower PoPs as opposed to the ECMWF, which is about a category higher for most days. Given this uncertainty, it was best to revert closer to normal PoPs for this time of year. This in conjunction with the fact that there are no obvious easterly undulations that would across our area in the meantime. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 82 92 82 / 50 30 30 30 Marathon 90 82 90 82 / 50 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest