683
FXUS62 KKEY 190747
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
347 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025
A large mass of deep dry air lingers across the Florida Keys
today. A 1030 mb Atlantic high is located just off Cape Hatteras
this morning, and winds along the reef are freshening to strong
breezes in response. Anemometers at Sand Key, Carysfort Reef, and
Alligator Reef are all measuring sustained winds near 20 knots,
and windy conditions will persist throughout the day. KBYX radar
returns see few, if any, showers across the coastal waters of the
Keys. Nighttime microphysics observations from GOES East hint at
only occasional fair weather cumulus along Florida Keys waters.
Today looks on track to be a great day to be outside within the
Keys, as long as you are on land.

A broad 500 mb ridge associated with the aforementioned Atlantic
high will continue to define Florida Keys weather. Longwave ridges
tend to stick around for a while, and that is the trend
statistical models show through the start of the work week. A
series of shortwaves moving through the midwest will weaken the
ridge enough to bring breezy conditions to an end as early as
Monday, but ridging will persist over the eastern United States.
Surface winds across the CWA are likely to cause breezy conditions
to wax and wane for most of next week. The forecast challenge then
becomes what happens in terms of moisture.

Statistical models suggest dew points may start to increase from
the current mid 60s towards the upper 60s near the end of next
week. In this scenario, shower chances would increase next Friday
and Saturday. Easterly winds may veer southeasterly in the event
troughing develops over the Caribbean. However, that is a week
out and the Keys are in a de facto blocking pattern. Persistence
will be the byword for the upcoming week, so prepare for wind,
nearly uninterrupted sunlight, and salt spray for the last full
week of April.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys waters.
From synopsis, a mature Atlantic high pressure system will sustain
strong easterly breezes today and tonight. Breezes will slacken
slightly at the start of the week after the high weakens, but the
strength will oscillate between moderate and fresh. Slight chances
of showers are expected while easterlies persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF
period. Near surface winds will be generally out of the east at 10
to 15 knots with frequent gusts to near 20 knots this morning
increasing to 15 to 20 knots during the mid to late morning
continuing through the evening with frequent gusts of 25 to 30
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  74  83  74 /   0  10   0   0
Marathon  82  74  82  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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