015
FXUS62 KKEY 092011
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
311 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
A rain free afternoon is underway as northeast to easterly breezes
hint at freshening across the Florida Keys this evening. Isolated
shallow showers continue to be confined to the outer Straits of
Florida as drier air aloft blocks any change at significant
vertical development. Moderate northeast to east breezes are
gradually freshening along the Reef a strong surface high slides
into the New England area. Temperatures have not changed much from
this morning as highs reach into the mid 80s with somewhat
pleasant dewpoints in the lower 70s.

Tonight, the previously mentioned surface high will approach the
east Atlantic coast of the northeast US. As it treks out into the
western North Atlantic, northeast to east breezes along the Keys
will become fresh. While this will encourage some speed
convergence to provide a source of lift for convection, the large
layer of dry air in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere
(observed in both KKEY and KMFL`s soundings) will continue to
limit showers to shallow at best. Since no major change in
instability or wind sheer is expected via model soundings, slight
chance PoPs are held for tonight. Meanwhile, the edge of moisture
associated with a weak tropical wave currently located southeast
of the Bahamas will attempt to encroach on our area Sunday. While
guidance is split on whether or not the full extent of tropical
moisture will extend over the Keys, but have opted to take the
middle ground and keep chance PoPs Sunday through Monday for now.

Breezes will lull briefly at the start of the work weak as the
inverted trough propagates through our area. Despite lingering
moisture, rain chances will remain near climo for this time of
year as mean flow falls off drastically. This will be short lived,
as breezes are set to surge once more out of the northeast with a
backdoor cold front descending down the Eastern Seaboard. This
solution is still somewhat up in the air but not uncommon for this
transitional time of year, so stay tuned for the latest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Hawk Channel, Straits
of Florida, and Deep Gulf waters. Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution in all other marine zones as winds increase. From
synopsis, strong high pressure moving across the Great Lakes
region will pivot towards the Northeast U.S. coast into tonight.
This will promote freshening breezes later this evening and
overnight. Expect moderate to fresh breezes to develop and hold
through Sunday. Thereafter, a weak easterly wave will push across
the area late this weekend into early next week, and will slacken
breezes. A cold front is progged to approach the Keys later next
week with another surge of easterly breezes expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Shower activity will continue to be limited through tonight,
therefore no mention of showers in the current TAFs. Near surface
winds are easterly at 10 to 15 knots currently and this later
evening will become more gusty at 15 knots with occasional gusts of
near 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  77  86  77  85 /  20  20  30  30
Marathon  77  85  77  85 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for GMZ033-034-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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