Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
359 FXUS62 KKEY 222002 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 302 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 It has been a yucky, dreary, cold, and windy day for the Florida Keys. Northerly winds have persisted in the wake of the cold front that blasted through this morning. Speeds have come down and now generally seeing speeds of 20 to 25 knots across the marine platforms with speeds near 20 mph across the island chain. Meanwhile, the northerly wind combined with cold air advection initially allowed for temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 50s during the morning hours. We have rebounded during the afternoon and temperatures are currently near 60 degrees. .FORECAST.. Tonight`s forecast low was difficult and models might not be handling the strength of the cold air advection. Tried to combine the 5th percentile NBM with a few other models to get something closer to accurate. Tonight could certainly be one of those nights where we only fall 2 to 3 degrees and then hold near steady overnight. Moisture associated with the front did not clear through the area and is now parked right overhead. That being said, there is not a lot of forcing to act upon this moisture and have left slight to low end chance PoPs. The more likely scenario with be a consistent low deck of stratus. Lastly, windy conditions will persist this evening before falling off during the remainder of the overnight. Temperatures will rebound somewhat on Thursday but still fail to reach and or exceed 70 degrees. This will be followed by a reinforcing front on Friday. This will not only act to keep daytime highs solidly in the 60s but will bring another (possibly of equal strength) northerly surge. Residents of the Florida Keys should expect another round of windy conditions late Friday afternoon through at Saturday morning. This reinforcing shot of cold air advection has the real likelihood of dropping overnight lows Friday night into the lower 50s and even upper 40s for the Upper Keys!!! Thankfully this should be very brief as high pressure fills in behind this second dose of cold air and clock winds around to the northeast and east. As this high gradually shifts further east, the pressure gradient will relax, winds will further clock around towards the east. This will allow for temperatures to moderate back closer to normal and hold through the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 Strong northerly breezes will continue this evening and briefly slacken overnight into Thursday morning. A reinforcing cold front will then push through the waters Thursday night, with yet another surge of strong northerly winds expected from Friday into the first half of the weekend. High pressure will slide into the Southeast U.S. and allow breezes to relax to moderate to fresh and clock around towards the east. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 Overcast CIGs are in place following a cold frontal passage this morning. IFR conditions are prevailing at both EYW and MTh through this afternoon. Near surface northerly gusts are elevated at EYW with crosswind gusts up to 30 knots. MTH is slightly shielded by the Florida shadow. Post frontal stratus will slowly lift during the day, but statistical guidance indicates high confidence MVFR CIGs will persist throughout the forecast period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, a daily record rainfall of 6.42 inches was recorded set back in 1983, followed by another 5.69 inches on the 23rd. The next-wettest day ever recorded in January was 3.38 inches on January 09, 1953. The 12.11 inches on these two days alone is more rain than what fell in the entire 2nd-wettest January ever (8.21 inches in January 1970.) The 6.42 inches on the 22nd is the wettest day ever between the dates of December 09 and May 29 (still valid as of 2019.) Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 58 68 58 65 / 30 20 10 10 Marathon 58 68 57 65 / 30 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest