877
FXUS62 KKEY 071119
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
619 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
The eastern half of Hurricane Rafael, including the eye, are
still apparent on the KBYX radar. As of 4:00 AM local time, the
center was approximately 175 miles to the west of Key West. Our
westernmost waters near the Dry Tortugas dont offer much in terms
of surface observations, but it is estimated that individual
cells embedded in Rafaels bands are moving at approximately 35 to
40 knots, or 40 to 46 mph, so winds at the surface are likely
just above that. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
the Dry Tortugas. Otherwise, Tropical Storm Warnings have been
dropped. Of note, the Key West International Airport ASOS recorded
a wind gust of 43 mph at 2:11 AM. Shortly after, a wind gust of
46 mph recorded by the Sand Key Light C-MAN station.

Rafael will continue to move farther away from the forecast area
as we head into the early morning, and this will allow for our
breezes to slacken here along the island chain.

.FORECAST...
As Rafael pushes farther into the Gulf, away from our
area, we will see conditions improve over the course of the next
few days. Rafael will move into the middle of the Gulf of Mexico,
and high pressure will be able to fill in the systems place.
Forecast soundings reflect a substantial amount of dry air with
this air mass change, and PWAT values may dip just under one inch
by Saturday. Will go ahead and keep precipitation chances on the
lower side of things to reflect this break from Raphaels moisture
surge.

Guidance also shows somewhat reasonable agreement that unsettled
weather will return sometime Saturday night or Sunday as the high
pressure slides eastward over the Atlantic. Opting to maintain
elevated PoPs through that timeframe as the overall picture looks
wet and possibly breezy, but specific rainfall amounts and wind
speeds are still difficult to confidently nail down.

There is even less confidence after that wave moves further from
us, and guidance has virtually no agreement. It could either be
calm and dry or breezy and wet. Take your pick. The significant
discrepancy seems to stem from the fact that there isnt a large
driving force that will move Rafael once it is out in the middle
of the Gulf. This just means that once Rafael is actually out
there and the models can precisely digest the systems dynamics,
there should be a clearer picture as to what next week could look
like. For now, well go with a forecast that leans on climatology
with some long range guidance mixed in, but know this will likely
change in the coming days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Gulf waters in
the vicinity of the Dry Tortugas, and the westernmost portions of
the Florida Straits. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
across the rest of the Keys waters. From synopsis, Hurricane
Rafael is gradually making its exit from our westernmost waters
this early morning. As we are writing this at almost 5 AM local
time, the center is approximately 175 miles to the west southwest
of Key West. The fresh to strong southeasterly breezes will
continue to slacken today and tomorrow, and we will see easterly
moderate breezes resume by Friday. There is still some uncertainty
related to an increase in breezes and shower activity over the
weekend, so anyone interested in that timeframe is encouraged to
check future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
Hurricane Rafael will continue to move westward and away from the
Florida Keys today. Bands of showers will continue to move across
the island chain, especially the Lower Keys this morning. Any
passing showers will have the potential for brief MVFR CIG/IFR VIS.
The highest chances for showers will be across the EYW terminal.
Otherwise, fresh east to southeast breezes will be slow to slacken
into this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  84  79  84  78 /  60  40  10  10
Marathon  85  79  87  77 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for FLZ078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     GMZ031>033-035-042>044-052>054-072>074.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ034-055-075.

&&

$$
Coordinator/Hazards..NB
Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....LIW

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