Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
439 FXUS62 KKEY 091844 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 244 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025 Another near perfect boating day continues over the Florida Keys this afternoon. Temperatures are rising into the lower 80s with dew points creeping up towards the low to mid 70s. Breezes across the island chain remain near or below 10 knots with occasional gusts. Skies remain nearly cloud free across the Keys. More than likely, a Cuban inhibition layer will be present over most of the CWA this afternoon and tonight, further supported by the observation of smoke from some fires on Cuba traveling far enough north to be seen by both GOES East visible satellite imagery and the Key West Airport ASOS. Daytime heating is expected to disrupt the southerly breezes by the early evening, so another period of variable winds can be expected, leading to another uneventful evening over the Florida Keys. Uneventful weather will come to an end overnight and tomorrow morning. A Gulf Low centered along the southern coast of Alabama and Mississippi fueled heavy rain and severe thunderstorms over northern Florida and will send a cold front into the Gulf. Current high resolution models show frontal passage across the Keys tomorrow. Timing-wise, the current consensus places initial showers in Key West later tomorrow afternoon. Expect a wetter frontal passage compared to last Wednesday`s. Sufficient instability exists to warrant including thunderstorms tomorrow. Tomorrow night, showers may linger in the early evening hours, but dry post frontal conditions are expected with freshening breezes and dew points plummeting into the mid 50s across the islands. Post-cold front, the environment over the Keys becomes much less dynamic. High pressure develops over the Gulf with a broad mid level ridge building over the Yucatan. Temperatures are forecast to return to near normal or slightly above normal, so brace for slightly more humid conditions. The pressure gradient is progged to tighten by the end of the week as the Atlantic high becomes more pronounced and there is, at this time, a low chance of breezy conditions across the island chain. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025 From synopsis, variable breezes tonight will give way to slightly fresher southerlies tomorrow morning. A low pressure system developing into a Gulf Low over the Florida Panhandle will force a cold frontal passage across the Florida Keys late Monday with a greater chance of shower and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Northwesterly breezes in the aftermath of the cold front will gradually slacken from fresh to strong to gentle to moderate midweek. High pressure over the Gulf will provide uneventful conditions until Friday when breezes may increase to fresh. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025 VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. Near surface winds will be generally out of the south at 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable later this afternoon before freshening overnight. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Florida Keys weather history, in 1998, 3.20" of rain fell at Marathon. This was the third-wettest March day on record for Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 73 82 66 74 / 10 50 10 0 Marathon 73 82 64 74 / 10 50 10 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest