Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
871 FXUS62 KKEY 150330 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Pleasant conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on this mid November evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and radars detecting no precipitation under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the western Atlantic, a cold front extending from the Carolina coast across the Gulf of Mexico to near the Yucatan Peninsula, and Tropical Storm Sara along the northeastern coast of Honduras. Aloft, the lower to mid level ridge axis remains near the Keys and South Florida. This is reflected by the 00Z Key West sounding, which found a sharp inversion near 850 mb and dry mid levels above the inversion, with PW of 1.38 inches (near normal for the date), although it appears that some of this moisture is in the high levels as evidenced by areas of cirrus cloudiness streaking overhead. Recent MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows similar estimated PWs around the Keys. Overnight, although there is adequate moisture available to support isolated showers, the sharp inversion and weakening low level flow should preclude shower development. This dry forecast is supported by MOS and CAM guidance. Temps should only drop another degree or two during the rest of the night, remaining in the upper 70s at most locations. The existing forecast is on track, and no updates are planned for this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Evening observations show mainly easterly winds around 10 knots along the reef and at Long Key C-MAN, with seas at Satan Shoal gradually subsiding to around 3 feet. Further offshore, a recent ASCAT pass sampled 11-15 knot winds across the Straits, and winds near 10 knots across the offshore Gulf waters. Winds will continue to slacken and veer to the ENE during the remainder of the night. No significant changes are planned for the late evening marine forecast issuance. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 VFR conditions with near zero rain chances will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through Friday afternoon. Surface winds will slacken to around 5 knots from the NE late tonight and Friday, then become NNW at 5 to 7 knots late Friday afternoon. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest