Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
808 FXUS62 KKEY 020714 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 314 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 It has been a mixed bag of activity for the overnight. Boundaries originating from convection over Cuba did race northward as expected. However, the activity that sparked along these boundaries were a little underwhelming. As of 3 AM, most of this activity has lifted northward out of our CWA with a linger batch approaching the Upper Keys. A broad TUTT sits off the Southeast U.S. coastline and continues to churn out convection north of the Bahamas. Meanwhile, a low level ridge axis is slowly returning to our area from the southeast thanks in part due to the TUTT moving further north. This is helping to maintain our southeasterly flow across the island chain. Since rain has sparsely affected the Keys this morning, temperatures are starkly warmer this time than yesterday. .FORECAST... Drier air, thanks to the next iteration of SAL is beginning to move in from the east. This will effectively shutoff most of our precipitation. That being said, we could see a brief burst of activity just prior to sunrise today as the leading edge passes through. Otherwise, expecting only slight chances for the majority of the island chain going into midday and afternoon with the exception of the Upper Keys. In addition to the SAL, we will once again have a southerly steering flow during the daytime, which acts to suppress convection across the Lower and Middle Keys. The SAL and its effects on rain chances will linger into Thursday. Thereafter, eyes turn to a quasi- stalled trough currently across the eastern third of the U.S. This feature will very slowly progress southeast and move across the Florida Peninsula by Friday. Accompanying this trough will be a moisture rich airmass. At the same time, a shortwave riding along in the flow will move into the base of this trough and strengthen slightly. The combination of these features will allow for above normal rain chances to move back in starting as early as Thursday night but more likely starting Friday. There remains some uncertainty as to how far south this trough and associated moisture will push. However, there`s high certainty that the best lift and support will be to our north. While we will see some precipitation, it is expected to be far less than what South Florida may potentially see. Unfortunately the trough will remain nearby for the upcoming holiday weekend and as such we can expect fairly wet conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week. Rain chances will briefly taper back mid- week, before increasing again late this week due to a new weather disturbance sliding into the Southeast United States. && .AVIATION... Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While a few showers cannot be ruled out, coverage will be too low and timing will be too uncertain to mention in either TAF. Near surface winds will be generally out of the southeast at near 10 knots, gradually slackening later today. && .OF NOTE... In 1878, a Tropical Storm passed about 100 miles north of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.77" was recorded along with a peak sustained wind of 36 mph. && .TROPICAL... An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 82 91 81 / 30 10 10 30 Marathon 88 82 88 81 / 30 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest