Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
203 FXUS62 KKEY 061004 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 604 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 600 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The combination of a high over the Appalachians and adjacent Atlantic, and disorganized troughing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is driving light east to southeasterly breezes across our area. The near surface flow is confluent between the ridge and trough, while lower level flows is best represented by a deformation zone across our area. In addition, the Keys remain within a very moist zone. A 06Z special upper air sounding indicated a precipitable water of 2.38 inches, very near the daily record. Not surprisingly, there is a lack of any significant dry layers and inhibition is weak. All this continues to prime the area for rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms that are fairly easily sparked by any in-situ boundaries. In the short term, the troughing in the eastern gulf is expected to deepen modestly a bit more, staying above 1000 mb. This will act to slightly slacken our breezes out of the south. As a result, the local environment will remain quite moist and generally confluent, keeping rain chances well above seasonal norms. The weather pattern will rapidly evolve through the first half of the week due to the expected development and movement of recently named Tropical Storm Milton, currently in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Milton is expected to strengthen into a Hurricane tonight as it picks up forward speed to the east northeast. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding Milton`s intensity and forward speed and some track uncertainty. At this time, Milton is expected to become a category 3 hurricane late Tuesday as it arcs northeastward and approaching the Florida Peninsula. By this point, Milton will have had the time to expand into a sizable storm and all guidance points to south to southwesterly breezes in the Keys peaking near tropical storm force. Further, there will likely be a heightened risk of coastal flooding and fast moving squalls. It is a bit too early to determine if watches or warnings will be required for the Keys. Stay tuned. && .MARINE... Issued at 600 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The combination of falling pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a high spanning the Appalachians and adjacent Atlantic is resulting in light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters this morning. The driving factors for our winds will undergo a rapid evolution over the next few days, ultimately becoming dominated by the expected deepening of Tropical Storm Milton. Milton is currently lumbering slowly in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Milton is expected to pickup speed towards the east northeast today, then arc northeastwards towards a weakness in the ridge heading into mid week. Milton is expected to strengthen into a hurricane tonight and gradually gain in size. With respect to Keys marine winds, expect breezes to remain generally light and veer southerly today and tonight due to the weak low pressure in the eastern gulf. Milton`s outer wind envelope is expected to begin spreading across Keys waters beginning late Monday or Early Tuesday. Winds will steadily ramp up, peaking in the Tuesday night and Wednesday morning time frame. Small Craft Advisories will be required and there is a strong potential for Gale or Tropical Storm watches and warnings. Through the remainder of the forecast, Milton will continue to truck across the Florida Peninsula and push out into the Atlantic. As a result, local breezes will gradually ease back while tacking clockwise, becoming moderate to fresh out of the north to northeast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Latest radar trends show scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms throughout the Florida Keys. This activity was moving to the north to northeast near 10 knots. Latest guidance moves it north-northeast along the Island Chain from now through the afternoon hours as a weak area of low pressure moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Yet another round of convection is possible this evening through the overnight hours as the aforementioned low approaches the South Florida coastline. Showers and storms will also be slow moving, potentially resulting in heavy rainfall. Any showers and thunderstorms will be capable of reducing CIGs to MVFR with VIS to as low as IFR along with gusty winds in and around any convection. Near surface winds will be east to southeast 5 to 10 knots outside of convection becoming southeast to south after sunrise. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest