579
FXUS62 KKEY 010238
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1038 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1037 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

After an active weather day, the radar has gotten eerily quiet
during the evening hours. This should be temporary and another
round will likely develop overnight and continue into the morning
hours on Monday. This is because there is an inverted trough
moving through the easterlies which is providing us the moisture
and lift needed for convection. This hour, looking at infrared
satellite imagery coupled with KBYX/KAMX radars, it appears the
trough axis is roughly located between Andros Island and South
Florida. This feature has been making very slow progress to the
west.

Given that most of the convection ended fairly early in the
evening period there is plenty of time for the atmosphere to
recharge. Especially as we begin to enter the peak nocturnal
diurnal. The trough axis will continue to slowly push west
overnight and expecting another round to develop. As such, even
though we are in lull, will keep PoPs at high end chance for now.
This is also supported by several hi-res CAMs. As this trough
pushes across the area, we will see northeast to east winds become
more east to southeast towards dawn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1037 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect. We
are currently in a lull for convection but expecting another round
is expected to develop late overnight and continue into the
morning hours on Monday. Mariners and boaters should expect winds
and seas higher in and around any thunderstorms that develop.
Northeast to east winds will shift around to the east and
southeast as an easterly undulation passes through the area early
Monday. Tropical Depression 3 located in the southwestern
part of the Bay of Campeche will move inland overnight and
dissipates. The western periphery of the subtropical high over the
Atlantic will maintain modest control over the Keys. This will
result in mainly gentle to moderate breezes over the next few
days, occasionally light to gentle. Tuesday through late week,
breezes will freshen as the gradient between the subtropical high
over the Atlantic and Beryl (major hurricane) strengthens. Beryl
is expected to remain well south of the Florida Keys as it marches
west northwest through the Caribbean Sea. Please review the
Tropical Cyclone Advisories for additional information on the
track and future evolution of Beryl.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for now as we are in a lull in the
convection. Expecting another round to develop after 06Z/1st and
continuing well into the morning hours. Given the lower confidence
on exact placement of these showers and storms and where the
strongest cells may pass over, have kept out mentions of MVFR or
even sub IFR conditions for now. However, they do remain at least
a possibility at this time.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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