Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
452 FXUS62 KKEY 191537 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1037 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 As anticipated, dense fog blanketed the cooler marine zones north of the Florida Keys overnight through around sunrise. GOES-16 satellite-derived MVFR and IFR probability products clearly depict the low ceilings and fog have since receded well northward, with mostly sunny skies enveloping the Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters. Available local radars as well as lightning products highlight the leading edge of the next cold front approaching the central Gulf of Mexico. The steering flow ahead of this front is south to southwesterly, with topographic influences from the island of Cuba promoting the generally clear skies. Given satellite and radar trends, elected to lower rain chances for the first period to slight levels, with the exception of the western waters, where the front will push through first late this afternoon and this evening. With the ample sunshine, temperatures should easily climb to the advertised upper 70s, if not eclipsing 80 degrees at select communities. No other changes proposed to the inherited forecast at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 A cold front is expected to approach the Keys this afternoon, resulting in light to gentle southwesterly breezes. This front is expected to push through the Keys coastal waters tonight and Monday, resulting in freshening north to northeasterly breezes. Due to this, Small Craft Advisories are becoming increasingly likely for the Florida Keys coastal waters tonight and Monday. Breezes will modestly slacken Monday night and Tuesday, before another more potent cold front pushes through the Keys sometime Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing a stronger surge of north to northeast breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through sunset. An approaching cold front will then bring MVFR cigs and possible passing VCSH for the remainder of the TAF period. This frontal passage will also result in winds veering from SW to W this afternoon, then from W to N after sunset, with gustiness increasing by early morning. This will lead to crosswind concerns late in the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 64 69 65 / 20 60 50 40 Marathon 79 63 69 66 / 10 50 50 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest