Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
008
FNUS73 KJKL 041523
FWSJKL
Spot Forecast for Cherry Tree RX...USFS
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1023 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EST on December 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...Southwest winds will increase ahead of an arctic cold
front today, with gusts of 25-30 mph expected, especially in the
afternoon. Winds will become westerly behind the front tonight, with
a few gusts around 35 mph possible. Snow showers are also expected
behind the front tonight, possibly preceded by a few rain showers.
Any snow accumulation is likely to be less than an inch.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Dewpoint............16 increasing to 25.
Min apparent temp...15.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 27 mph
in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL max.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph shifting to the southwest 18
to 21 mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Poor (1000 knot-ft) increasing to poor (13600
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6 to 28.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15 76 79 66 73 74 58 60 61 63 69
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............23 24 28 32 36 39 42 45 47 47 45
Dewpoint........15 15 16 16 17 18 20 22 23 24 25
RH..............71 68 60 51 45 42 41 40 38 40 45
Aparnt tmp (F)..15 15 20 25 30 33 37 40 42 42 40
20 FT wind dir..S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.13 14 16 17 20 23 25 25 25 26 25
Ridge wind dir..S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Ridge wind spd..8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SW SW SW S S S
Transp wind spd.8 10 13 15 17 18 21 21 20 20 18
LVORI...........3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
ADI.............6 11 14 16 19 22 28 28 27 27 21
Haines index....3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 2 4 7 11 15 20 20 19 19 14
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
showers in the evening, then rain showers
likely and numerous snow showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 24.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Dewpoint............27 increasing to 32 late in the evening, then
decreasing to 25 early in the morning.
Min apparent temp...21.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 15 mph shifting to the
west after 3 am. Gusts up to 28 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL min.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph shifting to the west 25
to 26 mph after 3 am.
Vent Rate...........Poor (3900 knot-ft) increasing to good (68700
knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................13 to 36.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........74 79 75 70 65 77 88 100 94 87 81 73
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY NUM NUM NUM
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW SW SW SW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 60 70 60
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............44 42 42 41 41 41 40 40 38 36 35 31
Dewpoint........25 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 32 31 30 25
RH..............47 53 55 59 62 67 73 79 79 82 82 78
Aparnt tmp (F)..38 35 35 33 33 33 32 32 29 27 25 21
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14
20 FT wind gust.24 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 23 25 26 26
Ridge wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W
Ridge wind spd..14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.0
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W
Transp wind spd.17 16 16 15 15 18 21 24 24 25 25 26
LVORI...........2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............15 14 14 13 13 16 19 27 27 34 34 36
Haines index....3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 4 5 5 6 12 19 29 39 52 64 69
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR GD GD
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Scattered snow
showers early in the morning, then scattered
flurries early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 26.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Dewpoint............21 decreasing to 5.
Min apparent temp...12.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
early in the morning.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL max.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 29 mph decreasing to 15 to 17
mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Good (73200 knot-ft) decreasing to marginal
(34400 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................44 early in the morning increasing to 88 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65 57 44 30 17 12 7 3 2 2 2 2
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....SW SW SW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).50 30 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............28 24 24 23 22 23 25 26 26 26 26 24
Dewpoint........21 16 14 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5
RH..............75 71 65 59 57 52 46 42 40 40 40 43
Aparnt tmp (F)..17 12 14 13 14 15 18 19 19 19 19 17
20 FT wind dir..W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..14 13 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.25 25 18 17 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 12
Ridge wind dir..W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Ridge wind spd..14 14 12 10 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.6
Transp wind dir.W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.28 29 26 23 21 20 17 16 16 15 15 15
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............67 71 88 76 68 64 57 53 52 48 47 44
Haines index....2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..74 80 73 63 57 54 47 44 43 39 38 34
Ventrate Cat....GD GD GD GD FR FR FR FR FR PR PR PR
$$
Forecaster...HAL
Requested by...Dave Kannas
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427589.2/JKL
.DELDT 12/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.kannas@usda.gov,paul.lemmon@usda.gov