887
FXUS63 KJKL 241441
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1041 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler and much drier air mass on the way into the area today
  and tonight will last through the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025

Latest model blend suggests it will remain dry today. Although
weak instability is expected, as heating occurs so will drying
(especially substantial aloft). This should greatly limit the
threat of precip, and a sub-20% POP is now in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 451 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025

The latest surface analysis shows an inverted trough oriented north
to south through the CWA from the Great Lakes down to the Deep
South. Farther to the west, a cold front extends southwestward from
the Hudson Bay region through the CONUS toward Wyoming. This front
is slowly approaching the area, and based on the 06Z analysis, it is
now on the doorstep of the CWA. Within the CWA, isolated showers and
storms are developing along the inverted trough but are quickly
exiting the area. Also, areas of locally dense fog are beginning to
appear in local surface observations.

Throughout the rest of the day, the slow-moving cold front is
forecast to track through the CWA before frontal passage occurs late
tonight into early Monday morning. As dry air moves into the region,
the moisture-starved front will only favor shower and storm
development across the far southeastern portions of the CWA, leaving
the majority of the area warm and dry.

Once the front exits the area very early Monday morning, a surface
high-pressure system will build into the region. Upper-level west-to-
northwesterly flow will lead to CAA behind the front, which will
usher in a more fall-like weather pattern. Temperatures are expected
to drop 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Highs on Monday will only
climb into the low to mid-70s, while overnight lows will fall into
the low to mid-50s, with some of the coldest valleys potentially
seeing temperatures in the upper 40s.

The period will be highlighted by a moisture-starved cold front
bringing isolated to scattered PoP to the southeast today.
Temperatures will remain in the 80s today but will quickly fall to
below-normal values for the remainder of the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 451 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025

A surface high-pressure system will remain dominant at the start of
the forecast period. Temperatures will continue to run below average
but will gradually begin to return to warmer values by Thursday. As
the high shifts to the east, flow around it will introduce warmer
south-to-southwesterly flow. Temperatures will climb from the mid-
70s to the upper 70s and low 80s as this southerly flow is
established. Increasing moisture is also expected as the flow shifts
to the south.

The latest model guidance remains in good agreement on a dry
forecast period. However, toward the end of the period, model
agreement begins to degrade and solutions begin to deviate, leading
to a lack of confidence for the latter half of the period. Should
the ECMWF solution materialize, precipitation chances could increase
for the weekend.

The period will be highlighted by fall-like weather building into
the region and remaining entrenched through at least midweek. Dry
weather and below-average temperatures will remain through midweek
before temperatures begin to climb back toward the end of the
forecast period. A passing shortwave may bring increasing
precipitation chances for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025

TAFs are a mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR with this issuance but over
the next hour or two, sites will move into VFR. A cold front will
move through the region today bringing some gusty winds after 18Z
but those will slacken off after 00Z. Guidance suggests that low
CIGs will be possible again overnight but opted to keep sites VFR
overnight as the airmass behind the exiting front is pretty dry.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST