195
FXUS63 KJKL 301953
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
353 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions will persist through Tuesday.

- Greater coverage of precip is forecast for Tuesday ahead of a
  cold front.

- Dry weather and somewhat lower humidity will arrive for mid-
  late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 351 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025

A progressive upper trough is located over the Midwest late today,
with an associated surface cold front from Lake Michigan southwest
to KS. A sultry air mass remains in place over our area ahead of
the front. Geopotential heights are falling as the trough
approaches, further enabling convective development with diurnal
heating today. Convection will last into the evening, but is
expected to decrease with loss of heating. However, the threat
will persist to some extent during the night as the system
approaches. The upper trough and front will both pass through the
region on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Models are now more
strongly suggesting diurnal development on Tuesday for more of the
area, and lasting into Tuesday evening in our southeast counties.

The extent of clouds and lack of significant shear will limit the
potential for strong convection on Tuesday. However, precipitable
water is expected to be near 2", and with fairly weak
unidirectional shear, locally heavy rainfall may result from any
training of cells which occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025

An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025

Largely VFR conditions were present at TAF issuance, but there
were some small areas with MVFR ceilings, and also scattered
showers/thunderstorms developing. Although any ceilings in
general will rise this afternoon, the showers/thunderstorms will
further increase in coverage, likely peaking in the late
afternoon. They will bring localized IFR or worse conditions. A
general decrease in precip is forecast this evening, but the
potential does not completely go away.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL