613
FXUS63 KJKL 092350
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
650 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain is expected for late this evening through tomorrow night.

- Normal to above normal temperatures will occur through the middle
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024

Current satellite shows a pretty large comma cloud from an upper
level low, centered over Nebraska. Subsequent clouds from a cold
front extend from the Great Lakes region down into the Gulf of
Mexico, where Tropical storm Rafael continues to stall out.
Moisture from this tropical system is currently being ingested
into the cold front located to the north.

Current RH percentages reside in the 30-45% range, and are expected
to become more saturated overnight. Increasing clouds will
continue to work in with showers expected after sunset. Showers
and thundershowers will likely be most persistent during the
morning hours Sunday, across and north of the Mountain Parkway.
Showers and thunderstorms continue through the afternoon tapering
off heading into Monday morning.

Lows tonight generally remain in the low to mid 50s, with highs
Sunday in the mid to upper 60s. Southerly winds generally remain
5-10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in isolated areas. Skies will
remain overcast through midnight Monday, beginning to clear out
from northwest to southeast during the morning Monday. Lows will
generally remain in the low to mid 50s, with upper 40s across the
Bluegrass area. According to the HREF, areas along and south of
the Hal Rogers Parkway/ Kentucky 80 Corridor, east of London,
have a 50-70% probability of seeing 0.25 inches or more from this
storm. Locations between the Hal Rogers Parkway/ Kentucky 80
Corridor and the Mountain Parkway generally have a 40-70%
probability of seeing 0.50 inches or more from this storm, with
probabilities increasing, heading north. Lastly, areas along and
north of the I-64 Corridor have a 80-90% probability of seeing at
least 0.50 inches from this storm.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 450 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024

The 09/12z model suite is in good agreement at the beginning of the
period but diverges substantially by the second half of the
period. Beginning Monday morning, forecaster analysis shows two
shortwaves rotating through a broad mean trough over the eastern
CONUS/Canada, while a ridge axis extends from Mexico north-
northwest over the High Plains and on into Northwest Canada.
Another 500H trough is found just off the West Coast. At the
surface, a cold front extends from an ~993mb low north of Montreal
southward into Southern New England, then southward along the
Appalachians into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A second ~995mb
low north of Lake Superior has an associated cold front sweeping
out an arc into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and then southwestward
out on to the Plains.

The first cold front departs early Monday with low-level moisture
gradually eroding from the northwest through the day. The secondary
cold front quickly drops in from the north on Monday night with
slight uptick in low-level moisture. Dry high pressure ridging
then builds east from the Plains both aloft and at the surface for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Model solutions trend more divergent as
the the next trough traverses the CONUS, making its way through
the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and/or Thursday. Substantial
differences are evident with respect to the timing and strength of
this feature and its associated surface cold front. Due to
limited moisture, LREF probs suggest only a 30 to 40% chance of a
wetting rainfall (0.1 inch or greater) with this front. Another
500H ridge aloft and attendant surface high pass through our
region on Friday and most likely remain close enough to keep dry
conditions over eastern Kentucky through Saturday.

In sensible terms, look for seasonable to above normal temperatures
through the period. Any light rain showers or drizzle diminish from
the northwest on Monday morning as low clouds erode. High
temperatures are forecast to be mild, ranging from the lower 60s
north of I-64 to the upper 60s in the in upper portions of the
Cumberland River Valley (e.g Harlan, Middlesboro, etc.). The
secondary cold front slides through Monday night, turning winds
northerly and ushering in drier air. Expect lows to range from the
mid/upper 30s north of I-64 to the low/mid 40s near the
Virginia/Kentucky border. Cooler air follows the secondary front
on Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s north of I-64 to the mid 60s
in the Upper Cumberland River Valley, all under mostly sunny
skies. More widespread lows in the 30s to around 40 are
anticipated for Tuesday night before southerly return flow and
mostly sunny skies boost afternoon temperatures back into the mid
60s to around 70 on Wednesday. Chance to likely PoPs attend the
next cold front Wednesday night and/or Thursday. Cooler and dry
weather is favored to follow for the remainder of the week with
near to slightly above normal afternoon high temperatures in the
upper 50s and 60s and nighttime lows in the 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024

Terminals are largely VFR minus KJKL and KSJS where wildfire smoke
is filtering into those sites and causing a reduction in VSBY down
to MVFR. This will continue to happen over the next few hours
before a cold front brings showers to the region. Ahead of the
front, LLWS will be possible at KSYM and KSME from 09Z through
about 14Z before surface winds increase and negate LLWS. An
approaching cold front will bring increased shower chances from
west to east after 08Z. Showers will persist through much of the
TAF period with isolated rumbles of thunder after 20Z. However,
as thunder chances are low, opted to leave out of the TAF but
wanted to mention in the discussion. Also, terminals will fall to
categorical MVFR after 08Z due to lowered CIGS and reduced VSBY in
association with the front. Lastly, southerly winds will increase
across all TAF sites after 14Z with sustained winds around 10
knots and gusts upwards of 20 knots but mainly at KLOZ, KSME and
KSYM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST