885
FXUS63 KJKL 040052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
752 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is expected to develop again tonight, mainly in the river
  valleys.

- Mostly dry and seasonably mild weather is expected through
  Thursday, with Wednesday looking warm and breezy.

- Our next chance for rain arrives Friday. This system brings
  gusty winds, possibly over 30 mph, and a chance of
  thunderstorms.

- Confidence is growing that the area will experience much colder
  temperatures early next week, but the precipitation forecast
  remains very uncertain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Forecast grids were freshened up in accordance with the latest
observations across Eastern Kentucky. Some shaded valley
locations have cooled off at a quicker rate than what was
originally expected, but the forecast for a mostly clear night
with ridge-valley temperature splits remains on track. Areas of fog
are poised to develop accordingly, especially in the river
valleys.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025

Last night`s expected fog materialized more as a low stratus deck,
which was in no rush to depart today. It wasn`t until early
afternoon when better heating, mixing, and drier air advection
finally started to wear away at the deck from west to east. Now, as
of 20Z, most of eastern Kentucky finds itself in a clear and benign
pattern as high pressure continues to settle in from the southwest,
where it will remain in control through the short term portion of
the forecast. In fact, a weak cold front tries to drop south into
the state tonight, but falls apart before it ever reaches us,
running into the area of higher heights and stronger subsidence.
The only impact may be a few passing clouds during the day Tuesday.

Instead, the main concern overnight will be fog. Unlike last night,
lingering moisture should not define itself in the form of a low
stratus deck. Skies will remain clear, with subsidence increasing
under the influence of high pressure, and temperatures decreasing
with NWrly flow aloft and dry air advection (lows generally in the
low to mid 30s). Enough moisture content remains in some areas that
fog will develop as temperatures drop well below the cross-over
temperature overnight (surpassing it by 10 degrees in some cases),
but this will especially be true in the deeper creek/river valleys
where moisture is more abundant, and sinking cold air will be more
present. Overall, kept the fog forecast very similar to what the
midnight shift had, with generally patchy to areas of coverage, but
visibilities dropping anywhere from 3 miles to 0 miles at times.
Went ahead and started to mention the impacts in the HWO, though
wasn`t confident enough in it`s coverage to go with any other
products at this time - will let the evening/midnight shift make
further decisions.

Heading into Tuesday, high pressure will remain in control, with
another day of mostly sunny weather. Temperatures will start a
warming trend as the center of high pressure begins to shift
eastward and return flow takes hold in the lower levels. Daytime
temperatures should top out the low to mid 60s for much of eastern
Kentucky. This will also translate into Tuesday night, with
overnight temperatures expected to be some 10 to 15 degrees warmer
compared to tonight. The increased flow and lessoning subsidence
will also cause less temperature disparity across the terrain, so
didn`t go too crazy on ridge/valley temperature splits. For the same
reasons, the fog is also not expected to have as much impact.
However, if temperatures end up being just slightly cooler in the
valleys, and winds slightly less, can`t rule out some additional fog
development.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 549 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

The forecast guidance suite continues to resolve a progressive
weather pattern over the Commonwealth, with a series of shortwave
disturbances navigating through the quasi-zonal flow aloft. The
first of these disturbances is forecast to approach the Greater Ohio
River Valley on Wednesday night, albeit with little impact to the
sensible weather here in Kentucky. Dry weather will continue into
Thursday before a second, stronger disturbance approaches on Friday
and yields a widespread rain chances. The passage of Friday`s cold
front will mark the beginning of a pattern change, and deeper
longwave troughing looks to dig into the region this weekend.
Confidence is growing that this new pattern could result in the
coldest temperatures of the season thus far, and depending on the
timing of a few embedded features, the first flakes of the season
could fly. Confidence in wintery precipitation is low at this
temporal range, but temperatures are forecast to be much colder at
the end of the long term forecast period than they are at the
beginning.

In fact, Wednesday`s high temperatures are poised to warm up to well-
above average values amidst an efficient warm air-advection regime.
When the period opens on Wednesday morning, the area will be
positioned between a clipper-type low over the Great Lakes and a
surface high over the Carolinas. These synoptics will yield
southwesterly surface flow over the region, and the tightening
pressure gradient could yield gusts up to 25 mph. Under mostly clear
skies, efficient diurnal warming/mixing favors highs in the upper
60s and lower 70s. MOS guidance remains very aggressive with
Wednesday`s high temperatures in some of the deepest valleys in
Eastern KY, and a few thermometer readings in the mid 70s cannot be
ruled out. Nevertheless, this warmth will be short lived, as the
clipper system`s trailing cold front will get dragged through the
region overnight. That boundary continues to look moisture-starved,
but temperatures look to be slightly cooler on Thursday, with AM
lows in the 40s and PM highs back in the 60s. A quick-moving surface
high will pass through the region in this time frame, yielding one
last day of pleasant dry weather. Shaded valley locales will cool
off quickly after sunset on Thursday night, but surface winds will
veer towards the south and strengthen as the high shifts east.

By Friday morning, the commonwealth will once again be within a
regime of gusty southwesterly return flow. However, a relatively
stronger surface low in the Great Lakes and a relatively deeper
parent trough aloft means that that Friday`s winds will be both
stronger and vertically stacked. Collectively, this favors much more
efficient moisture return, and cloud coverage is forecast to
accordingly increase on Friday morning. Forecast guidance shows
PWATs climbing to near 1 inch on Friday afternoon out ahead of the
system`s cold front. These values are much higher than
climatological norms for early November, giving credence to the
idea that a widespread wetting rain will occur on Friday. The LREF
Grand Ensemble depicts a 75-85% chance of at least 0.25 inches of
rain to fall across Eastern Kentucky on Friday and Friday night.
Confidence in convection with Friday`s system is much lower,
although there remains a slight chance of thunderstorms immediately
ahead of the frontal boundary along and west of the I-75 corridor.
The aforementioned AM cloud coverage could mitigate the amount of
diurnal warming on Friday, but efficient WAA still still allow
highs to climb into the upper 60s/near 70. If pockets of clearing
emerge on Friday afternoon and some marginal instability is
realized, some of Friday`s activity could take advantage of frontal
forcing and seasonably strong (but unidirectional) bulk shear to
produce convectively-enhanced strong wind gusts. The LREF joint
probabilities for favorable convective parameter spacing remain less
than 25% this afternoon, but a high-shear/low-CAPE type of event
cannot be completely ruled out. Thus, the greatest impacts from
Friday`s system will likely come from its widespread rainfall and
the post-frontal reduction in temperatures.

Saturday`s cooler temperatures (MaxTs near 60 and MinTs in the lower
half of the 40s) will mark the beginning of a broader pattern shift.
After one last day of quasi-zonal flow aloft, deeper longwave
troughing will dig deep into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys at
the end of the forecast period. As it does so, the pattern will
remain active, with multiple shortwave disturbances approaching the
area from the northwest through early next week. There remains
significant model spread in the timing and magnitude of these
embedded features, but the mean troughing aloft and the post-cold
frontal regime at the surface will collectively advect a much cooler
continental polar airmass into the region. Guidance consistently
resolves mid-level height falls to below 550 dm by Sunday evening,
with 850mb temperatures dropping below freezing around the same
time. If a secondary shortwave feature is able to take advantage of
these colder temperatures, the first snowflakes of the season could
mix in with a cold rain on Sunday evening. However, the antecedent
warmth means that winter weather impacts are highly unlikely, and
confidence in winter precipitation remains low at this extended
temporal range. Confidence is much higher that temperatures will
drop to the coldest values thus far this season early next week,
with widespread subfreezing lows forecast on Monday morning.
Guidance continues to drop 850mb temperatures through the end of the
forecast period, and it is plausible for the entirety of the
forecast area (even ridgetops) to experience lows in the 20s and
highs in the 30s by next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Clear skies this evening will give way to the development of river
valley fog tonight. This could lead to visibility reductions at the
terminals early tomorrow morning, although the latest LAMP guidance
has trended towards later and less severe reductions. IFR reductions
look most likely at SME and SYM before dawn, but as the fog begins
to lift out of the valleys around sunrise, MVFR reductions will be
possible at JKL and LOZ too. After the fog dissipates tomorrow
morning, VFR conditions will return area-wide. High clouds are
forecast to build into the region tomorrow, with the greatest sky
cover at northern terminals. Winds remain light throughout the TAF
period, but may adopt a more southerly orientation by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARCUS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...MARCUS