736
FXUS63 KJKL 300830
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
430 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will be around early this morning with locally
  dense patches.

- There will be persistent showers around the area, until a cold
  front passes through on Tuesday night.

- Behind the cold front for Wednesday dry weather arrives and
  lasts through the end of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows a broad area of low pressure through
Kentucky as the stacked low from Helene and the upper pattern has
drifted nearly overhead. This has made for a variably cloudy night
along with a few lingering showers. These conditions favored the
development of fog with locally dense patches occurring where the
clouds were thin enough. Some of the dense fog has been fleeting,
though, so for that reason we remain with an SPS addressing the
concern rather than a Dense Fog Advisory. Otherwise, temperatures
and dewpoints are rather uniform and similar through the area -
running in the low to mid 60s, amid light winds.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the closed 5h low, that has plagued the
area for the better parts of a week, finally making progress in
moving out of the region. As this does so, 5h heights will
gradually rise through eastern Kentucky but ample mid level energy
will be slow to exit until closer to Tuesday evening - leaving
the eastern parts of the CWA last. The small model spread again
warranted using the NBM solution as the starting point for the
grids some minor adjustments mainly involving PoPs through Tuesday
afternoon with input from the latest high resolution CAMs.

Sensible weather features mostly cloudy days with more light,
diurnally enhanced, showers affecting the area under that
slowly departing stacked low. Instability does appear to be too
low even after peak heating to result in tall enough convection
for thunder so have left it out through the short term - despite
the seemingly overdone parameters from the NBM. At night we will
see another damp and mild one under variable clouds with areas of
fog - locally dense - a continuing concern.

The changes to the NBM starting point again mainly consisted of
adjusting timing and resolution details of the PoPs per the CAMs
through Tuesday afternoon. Also, did not deviate much from the
NBM`s T and Td solution for the period. Finally, minimized the
thunder potential each afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2024

The residents of eastern Kentucky will see a brief period of rain to
begin the extended, as a cold front and upper level trough move
through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rain will start
off fairly widespread Tuesday night, but will gradually but steadily
taper off across the area as the front moves to the east overnight.
The last few showers should be out of the area by mid-morning on
Wednesday. The lack of instability will make it very difficult for
any storms to form, so thunder was left out of the forecast for now.
Once the front has moved away, a large ridge of Canadian high
pressure will move in behind the front and settle over the region.
The ridge will bring mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry
weather to the area through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Several forecast models support this scenario in general,
with a few timing differences here and there. With ridging overhead,
conditions will prime for modest ridge valley temperature
differences and late night and early morning valley fog. Daily highs
should be in the 70s for most locations, with lower 80s possible on
Friday, after the air mass has modified for a few days. The latest
run of the NBM has another weather system approaching from the
northwest Sunday night, which could bring a few showers back into
the area to finish out the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2024

A mixture of aviation conditions were reported across the area at
issuance time. A few stray showers will continue to diminish
through eastern Kentucky over the next couple of hours. As
temperatures cool and dewpoint depressions shrink, lower
clouds/stratus build down fog should continue to lead to lowering
ceilings and/or visibilities into the 08 and 09Z timeframe. Any
clearing out of low and mid clouds would lead to fog developing,
as well. Some of this will likely result in IFR or lower vis and
or ceilings with a general improvement back toward VFR during the
12Z to 15Z period. Light and variable winds are expected to hold
through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP/GREIF