146
FXUS63 KJKL 061425
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1025 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers with heavy rain will impact eastern
  Kentucky through this evening.

- A much colder air mass arrives behind a cold frontal passage
  today, and lingers until mid-week.

- Frost and/or freezing temperatures are forecast for most places
  Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2025

Removed any mention of thunderstorms from the forecast for the
remainder of today, and fine-tuned PoPs through tonight based on
observed and latest model trends. Rainfall through the remainder
of today will generally be more stratiform than showery.
Considered removing any mention of excessive rainfall from the
forecast and the HWO, but will leave and re-assess with the
afternoon package. Also utilized the CONShort model for hourly
temperatures to better capture the temperature gradient across the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2025

Model analysis shows an incoming 500-mb low approaching the Pacific
northwest, allowing for a more progressive pattern to unfold, and
forcing the low pressure, that`s been drenching the Mississippi,
Tennessee and Ohio Valley basins, off to the north and east through
the day today.

In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms will continue through
much of the day, slowly tapering off later this afternoon and
evening across Eastern Kentucky from west to east. Some showers and
storms may linger through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday,
but should be light in comparison to the rest of April thus far.
Rainfall totals between 0.75 and 1.5 inches are forecasts for most
places from this morning into tonight. As such, a flood watch has
been extended for most counties through 4 pm, with the exception
of Fleming, Montgomery, Bath and Rowan, whose flood watches will
likely be allowed to expire at 8 am this morning. Winds will be
light and variable, but generally out of north through the day.
Temperatures will be largely dependent on when the rain showers
progress over any given area. Temperatures may range today from 50
to 70 from north to south, largely in part due to the showers
across the area. Sunday night, temperatures drop into the mid 30s
to low 40s across the area, with frost potentially developing
across Fleming county early Monday morning.

Monday, as the previous frontal boundary slowly moves off to the east
of Kentucky, drier conditions move into the area, however there will
remain a slight chance of a shower or two across Southeast Kentucky.
Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50s under decreasing
clouds, and light winds backing from a northerly direction early, to
more of a westerly direction later in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 545 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2025

The period is expected to begin with a rather amplified pattern with
upper level ridging centered east of Bermuda and another upper level
ridge extending into the southwestern Conus to WY and MT to
Saskatchewan. In between an upper level trough should extend from
Quebec and potions of Ontario across the Central Great Lakes to the
TN Valley to TX. A shortwave moving through the trough is expected
to extend from the mid OH Valley to Southern Appalachians at that
time while another shortwave should extend from the eastern Great
Lakes to the Lower OH Valley. At the surface, an area of low
pressure is expected to be over Ontario at that point with a cold
front trialing into the Commonwealth to parts of the Central Plains
to WY. Guidance suggests some low level moisture linger at that point
across eastern KY generally in the 900 mb to 700 mb layer.

For Monday night, the first shortwave trough will move east during
the evening with the second one trailing behind it. The associated
surface low should track to the St Lawrence Valley vicinity with the
trialing cold front dropping south across eastern KY during the
evening and then south of the area by the overnight hours. Low level
moisture and associated cloud cover should decrease during the late
evening to overnight hours from northwest to southeast with a cold
and drier airmass arriving. However, before the low level moisture
diminishes, a few sprinkles or even isolated to scattered showers
will be possible near the southward dropping boundary during the
evening to as late as the start of the overnight hours nearer to the
VA border. The chances of sprinkles or showers is greatest over the
eastern half of the area. As Monday night progresses, 850 mb
temperatures per the 00Z LREF mean are forecast to drop to about the
-6C to -9C range around dawn on Tuesday and drop a degree or two
lower on Tuesday morning. With sfc high pressure nosing into the the
Lower OH Valley from far western Ontario and the mid and upper MS
Valley. Temperatures are expected to fall to around freezing if not
a few degrees below freezing across the northwest two thirds of the
area for Monday night, with more uncertainty in the more
southeastern counties where clearing occurs later as the arrival of
the colder and drier airmass. Although, below freezing low
temperatures are possible areawide, the more northwester portions of
the area have the best chance of falling to 30 or below if not the
mid to upper 20s. With this in mind and the beginning of the growing
season coordinated to begin as we begin the new work week, a Freeze
Watch was hoisted for the more northwestern counties. If confidence
of temperatures reaching 30 or below for several hours further
southeast increases with later forecasts, additional counties would
need to be added to the Freeze Watch for Monday night.

Mid level height rises and sfc high pressure are expected to
dominate for Tuesday into Wednesday. Following well below normal
highs under the cold airmass on Tuesday as the high builds into
eastern KY and then works across the area into Wednesday is the
threat for a second night of below freezing temperatures areawide
Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 20s to for most
locations other than perhaps coalfield ridges which may linger near
the freezing mark. The surface high and upper level ridging slip
east of the area by later Wednesday into the second half of the
week with an upper level trough developing from portions of the
Central Conus into the MS Valley and then and eventually extending
from the Great Lakes into the Southeast by Friday. Multiple
disturbances and a sfc low tracking north of the area Thursday to
early on Friday bring a return of unsettled weather from late
Wednesday night or early Thursday and continuing into Friday.
Temperatures nearer to normal and only very modest moisture return
with dewpoints returning to the 40s should lead to limited
instability as the front approaches and limited thunder chances to
isolated from Thursday into Thursday night. Also with the limited
moisture, total rainfall from the front and associated upper
level trough should be less than the recent system with the most
likely range in the 0.2 to 0.5 inch range at this time. The axis
of the trough should gradually shift east of the area Saturday
resulting in a decrease in chances for showers.

Overall, temperatures will be below normal for Monday night to
Wednesday, with temperatures peaking about 15 to 20 degrees below
normal for highs on Tuesday. Highs are generally expected to be near
normal for Wednesday to the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2025

Showers and low chances of thunderstorms will continue to filter
into the area from the southwest through the day, along a frontal
boundary. A gradual trend from MVFR down to mainly IFR should
occur from northwest to southeast between 12Z and 21Z, with some
locations approaching airport mins at times through the end of the
TAF period. Winds will initially be north to northeast from near
JKL and SJS north, and should gradually become north and
northeast across the remainder of the area through 00Z with speeds
generally less than 10 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>109-111-
112-114-116.

Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ058>060-068-069-
079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF