


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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752 FXUS63 KJKL 081912 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 312 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cool and dry weather pattern is expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Expect sunny days and clear nights with seasonable temperatures. - Thursday night will be the coldest night of the week. Temperatures in some of the most sheltered valleys could fall into the mid-30s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 304 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025 Low clouds continue to erode southeastward into the upper reaches of the Cumberland River Basin, as a brisk north to northeasterly breeze ushers in a drier airmass, leaving mostly sunny skies and fair-weather cumulus across the remainder of the area. Temperatures at the lower elevations are quite pleasant, ranging in the 60s to lower 70s, coolest in areas where clouds have been most persistent. The latest analysis shows a 500 hPa trough axis extending from Eastern Canada southward into the Central and Southern Appalachians, while broad 500 hPa ridging is in place over the central CONUS. At the surface, an expansive surface highwith a ~1032 mb center over northern Wisconsinis exerting its influence over the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and adjoining regions. Over eastern Kentucky, 500 hPa heights will rise through Thursday as the ridging slowly propagates eastward. Heights will then become nearly neutral or fall slightly on Thursday night as a potent northern stream disturbance dives southeast toward the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure sinks southeastward to over Southern New England by the end of the period. The surface pressure gradient and low-level CAA will linger tonight, keeping any radiational fog formation quite limited, even in the sheltered mainstem river valleys. That gradient relaxes more by Thursday night, permitting more extensive and deeper fog formation in the favored valley locales. Temperatures will be quite cool compared to recent weeks, but still seasonable for heading into mid- October. In terms of sensible weather, sunshine should develop by 5 PM in locations where it has not yet done so. It will be mild with highs primarily in the upper 60s to lower 70s, though cloudier locations may struggle to out of the mid 60s. For tonight, expect clear skies and a continued weak north to northeast breeze, though the more sheltered valleys are favored to mostly decouple. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the low to mid-40s. Some fog is possible in the most fog-prone valley locales. Looking ahead to Thursday, it will be sunny and cool, with high temperatures mainly in the 65-70F range. On Thursday night, clear skies persist aside from the fog formation in the mainstem river valleys. Lows are forecast to be even cooler, ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s in most locales. A few of the coldest sheltered hollows could flirt with the mid-30s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025 An upper low over southern Georgia Friday morning will serve to quickly develop a strong surface low off the Southeast coastline Friday. This cyclone will then move up the East Coast and combine with an upper low diving southeast across the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. This cyclone then moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast through the first half of next week, while ridging builds north-northeastward through the Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. Though differing in the exact details, the global ensemble solutions generally keep precipitation out of the forecast area with weak or northwesterly flow aloft through the period, with temperatures slowly warming through the period from below normal to near normal or slightly above normal by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025 Cool and dry air filtering in behind a cold front continues to erode the low cloud deck from earlier in the day. The back edge of the MVFR cloud deck stretches PBX to SME, southward, at TAF issuance and will continue eroding southeastward through 21Z. Behind that cloud deck, expect just a few fair weather cu with bases in the 3-5k ft AGL range. Valley fog should be limited tonight with a larger dewpoint depression keeping the fog out of the TAF terminals. Winds will be north to northeast with speeds up to 10 kts possible before weakening tonight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...GEERTSON