151
FXUS63 KJKL 151120
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
720 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather continues across eastern
  Kentucky through the work week.

- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for the duration of the forecast period.

- While confidence in specific details remains low, the next
  chance of showers/storms will come this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025

Just a quick update to the grids and some early morning products.
Due to locally dense river valley fog opted to issue an SPS for
the Big Sandy/North Fork of the Kentucky and Levisa Fork basins
through 10AM. Otherwise, forecast remains largely on track. Grids
have been saved and sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025

The latest surface analysis map shows a dry cold front slowly
advancing southward into the Commonwealth, currently oriented east-
to-west across the state early this morning. The associated surface
low is situated over the White Mountains, with the aforementioned
cold front extending southwestward through the Commonwealth, back
toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, before linking with a separate
surface low moving off the Rockies in western Wyoming. Surface high
pressure is positioned both north and south of this synoptic
boundary. Locally, clear skies prevail, contributing to the
formation of areas of dense river valley fog, predominantly in the
Big Sandy region, but also noted in the Kentucky and Cumberland
valleys. Visibility is reduced to approximately one-half mile in
these fog-affected areas.

Upper-level ridging will begin to break down as height falls occur
throughout the day, and the flow aloft becomes increasingly
northwesterly. At the surface, the frontal passage is anticipated
late this afternoon or early evening. Ahead of the front, dry
conditions will persist, allowing high temperatures to climb into
the low-to-mid 70s. Following the FROPA, northwesterly flow will
efficiently advect significantly drier air into the region,
accompanied by notable cold air advection. Overnight lows will
consequently fall into the low-to-mid 40s, with a renewed risk of
locally dense river valley fog.

Surface high pressure will remain the dominant feature through
Thursday. Aloft, potent northwesterly flow will continue to advect
cooler temperatures into the region, resulting in high temperatures
topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This pattern will also
ensure the advection of very dry air, with afternoon minimum
relative humidities expected to fall into the mid-30 percent range
by Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025

The long-term forecast begins with the area positioned behind the
cold front. Upper-level ridging and associated height rises are
forecast to build into the region overnight Thursday into Friday.
This transient pattern will usher in a brief warm-up as the
Commonwealth becomes situated between the departing trough to the
east and an approaching trough from the west. This short-lived ridge
is expected to remain in place from Friday morning through Saturday
morning. As the ridge breaks down, strong southwesterly flow ahead
of the approaching western trough will develop, advecting much
warmer temperatures into the region.

Simultaneously, the approaching trough will increase the probability
of showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday afternoon. The upper-
level trough is forecast to drive a surface low through the northern
Great Lakes, causing the associated cold front to slowly approach
the CWA from the west. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage Saturday night and persist through the FROPA on Sunday
afternoon. While some convection could produce locally heavy
rainfall, significant hydrologic issues are not anticipated due to
the antecedent dry conditions experienced over the preceding days.
The overnight model suite currently depicts widespread QPF values of
1.00 inch, with localized amounts climbing to approximately 1.50
inches, particularly in the Bluegrass areas.

As the upper-level trough pivots overhead, the core of an 80 to 100
knot jet streak will track across the region. This dynamic forcing
is expected to enhance vertical mixing, bringing stronger winds
aloft down to the surface on Sunday. Although there is still decent
spread among deterministic model runs, sustained surface wind gusts
upwards of 20 to 25 mph will be possible Sunday afternoon. Following
the exiting front, surface high pressure will quickly build back
into the region late Sunday into Monday, dominating the forecast
from Monday through much of the early part of next week before
another system approaches for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Accompanying the active long-term pattern, temperatures are expected
to exhibit significant variability. Highs will climb significantly,
first into the low-to-upper 70s for Friday, and then into the low
80s ahead of the approaching front on Saturday. Post-frontal high
temperatures will settle back into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Overnight lows beginning Thursday night are forecast to fall into
the low-to-mid 40s, with upper 30s possible in the more sheltered
valleys of the Big Sandy region. Temperatures will quickly rebound
Friday night due to warm air advection ahead of the approaching
frontal system, with lows expected to bottom out in the 50s for both
Friday and Saturday nights. However, following the final frontal
passage on Sunday, post-frontal lows will plunge back into the upper
30s for Sunday and Monday nights, with a slow moderation beginning
Tuesday night as warm air advection rebuilds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are prevailing across most of the TAF sites
with this issuance; however, KSYM is MVFR and KSJS is currently
LIFR due to locally dense river valley fog. Fog will gradually
begin to burn off over the next couple of hours but lifting fog
create brief reductions in category. CAMs continue to hint at a
stratus deck which is progged to develop and move southward into
the CWA ahead of a dry cold front leading to MVFR CIGS after
11Z-12Z and persisting through the early afternoon before
dissipating to SKC for the remainder of the period. Winds will
remain light but KLOZ, KSME and KSYM could see some increased
winds this afternoon but will dissipate toward 00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST