547
FXUS63 KJKL 010455 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1155 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A messy weather event is on track for tonight and Tuesday, with
  a good potential for wintery precipitation, especially north of
  the Mountain Parkway.

- Drier and colder weather will be in place for the middle of the
  week. Temperatures will average between 5 and 10 degrees colder
  than normal.

- The pattern will turn active towards the weekend with additional
  chances of precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

02Z sfc analysis shows chilly high pressure in control of the
weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the CAA
on northwest of 5 to 10 mph and attempting to clear the skies
though high clouds are holding on strong in the northern parts of
the area. Currently, temperatures vary from the upper 20a west to
the lower and middle 30s in the east. Meanwhile, dewpoints are
generally in the low to mid 20s. Have updated the forecast mainly
to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

Cold front exits east of the area by this evening, with drier
conditions developing within zonal flow aloft. Models do suggest a
surge of low-level moisture moving south as ridging builds into the
area overnight, and this may push a stratus deck into the area.
However, these clouds are progged to dissipate and move quickly
north shortly after sunrise Monday.

High clouds gradually increases through the day Monday as a
disturbance moves east toward the area. Surface cyclogenesis will
occur along the northern Gulf Coast, with an inverted surface trough
building north along the western side of Appalachians. Additionally,
a strong southwesterly mid-level jet stream to the west and north
will allow for warm air to build northeast into eastern Kentucky,
with overrunning precipitation developing from southwest to
northeast through the evening. Precipitation continues through the
overnight as the surface cyclone moves across the Deep South, with
colder air beginning to advect into the region as the cyclone turns
up the East Coast Tuesday.

Initially, as precipitation overspreads the area rain will be the
primary p-type, but low-level critical thicknesses will support a
wintry mix of precipitation types as the evening progresses from
roughly the Interstate 64 corridor north. Toward dawn Monday colder
air will start to advect from the west and northwest into the
region, allowing for a changeover to snow from northwest to
southeast as precipitation ends.

Probability of exceedance values for greater than 1 inch snow
accumulation continue to remain around 35 to 55 percent for areas
from Interstate 64 north in the JKL forecast area, with values
decreasing quickly to the south of Interstate 64. As rain changes to
snow during the morning from northwest to southeast, a quick dusting
to less than one-half inch of snow, mostly accumulating on grass and
elevated surfaces, will be possible, with little to no impacts
expected.

Drier and colder air moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon
into the early evening, but with cold advection light snow showers
gradually diminishing along the high terrain of southeastern
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

The long wave pattern will remain active, with progressive flow in
place across the CONUS through the end of the week, with some
amplification taking place, especially for the latter half of the
period. Not surprisingly, model spread increases quite a bit by
the second half of the week regarding the timing/amplitude of the
smaller scale features. Consequently, this will have a direct
impact on temperature profiles and inevitably precipation-type. As
such, have maintained a more broad-brushed approach with the PoPs
and temperatures, given this uncertainty. Did make some
adjustments to the blended temperatures in a few periods, mainly
to add in more ridge/valley differences at night when appropriate.

Low level northwest flow will be in place across eastern Kentucky to
begin on Tuesday night, with an exiting trough axis to our east.
Some upslope snow shower activity will remain a possibility across
our southeast terrain, but this should gradually diminish as high
pressure builds in and moisture shallows with time. Colder than
normal temperatures and mainly dry weather will then be the rule
across the area through the middle of the week, with zonal flow in
place aloft, and high pressure nearby at the surface. Highs will
be in the 30s and 40s, with lows in the 20s, generally in the 5 to
10 degree range below normal. The only fly in the ointment will
be a cold front that will traverse the Ohio Valley Wednesday night
into Thursday. This front should result in mostly an increase in
cloud cover across eastern Kentucky, as better lift and moisture
do not look coincident at this time, at least south of the Ohio
River.

Meanwhile, a southern stream short wave trough will take shape
across the southwestern CONUS, while northern stream energy swings
over southeastern Canada and portions of the Great Lakes and New
England. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will activate from the
lower Mississippi Valley through the Tennessee Valley. Again,
depending on the timing and amplitude of the southern stream
digging, deeper moisture and warmth will be slung toward eastern
Kentucky Friday into Saturday, with precipitation chances peaking
in the 60-70% range. At this time, this looks to fall mainly in
the form of liquid, with the exception of early Friday morning, as
enough cold air may linger in place to allow for some light snow
at onset. Overall, this is a low confidence forecast. Depending on
the evolution of the previous mentioned system, some precipitation
chances (20-30%) will linger into the second half of the weekend;
with another passing cold front threatening from the northwest.

Temperatures will continue to average somewhat below normal this
weekend, although given the cloud cover and precipitation chances
lingering, readings will be more diurnally limited, with highs
mainly in the 40s from Friday through Sunday each day, and lows
generally in the 30s. Normal highs for early December are in the
low 50s with normal lows are in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

VFR conditions are noted for the start of the 06Z aviation cycle
and should hold well into the night. However, a secondary cold
front may bring another round of MVFR CIGs pre-dawn into early
Monday, with the highest probabilities of this occurring at KSYM
and KSJS. By midday these will clear up and attention turns to the
next burgeoning system from the southwest that will push in after
00Z with lowering CIGs and VIS in rain south and mixed pcpn
north. Northwest to west winds will continue at less than 10 kts
through the night - turning east then southeast during the day.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GREIF