830
FXUS63 KJKL 011456
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1056 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain is expected to move into the region tonight and will
  continue into Sunday, especially across southwestern portions
  of the area.

- Below normal temperatures return for early next week with highs
  only reaching the 50s to low 60s and nights deep in the 30s.

- Warmer weather returns for the middle of next week, with dry and
  fair conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Forecast has remained well on track throughout the morning hours.
Fog was being a little stubborn in wanting to dissipate this
morning out of the valleys, but within the last half hour it looks
like most of it is finally gone. Therefore, waited a bit after
10am to do the update so as to remove all fog wording from the new
ZFP/SAF forecast package. Otherwise, the only other update was to
make sure the near term temperatures/winds/etc were on track with
the current conditions. Loading in the latest observations,
overall resulted in some minor temperature changes, but hasn`t
impacted the overall forecast, as more SW winds should start
kicking in and quickly start rising the temperature into the 50s
and possibly low 60s during the afternoon. All updates have also
been finalized and sent to NDFD/web.

UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Forecast is on track. Blended latest obs into hourly forecast, but
no significant changes were needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Temperatures range in the low 30s to low 40s early this morning,
cold enough for areas of frost in the colder spots. High clouds
are drifting in while locally dense fog laces the river valleys.
The latest weather analysis shows a sub-980 mb low over the
Canadian Maritimes while surface high pressure ridging extends
from the Northern/Central Plains down into the Southeast US. A
weak low pressure wave is noted near Minneapolis-St. Paul. Aloft,
a 500 hPa trough remains east of the Rockies with a pronounced
embedded upper low over NE Iowa. A positively-tilted ridge extends
from the Desert Southwest northward into the Canadian Arctic.

The upper low will drop southeast to over the Southern
Appalachians through the period. The weak surface wave will follow
a similar trajectory, dropping across the Commonwealth tonight
and Sunday. This will result in increasing moisture, initially
aloft today, then at the lower levels tonight, and gradually
diminishing on Sunday. Resulting rainfall will be limited,
generally a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch, with the
heaviest amounts toward south-central Kentucky.

In sensible terms, look for morning fog and/or frost to yield to
mostly sunny skies, fading to increasing clouds during the
afternoon. It will be milder with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Intermittent light rain can be expected tonight with milder
lows in the mid 40s. Leftover showers linger on Sunday as sunshine
increases. It will be a little cooler, with highs in the mid to
upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 553 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

The long-term period opens Sunday evening with an approximately
555 dam low over the mid-Tennessee Valley, with upstream ridging
over the Desert Southwest/Southern Plains. Broad 500 hPa troughing
is also noted over Central Canada. Translated down to the
surface, high pressure will be moving into the Lower/Mid-
Mississippi valley behind the departing weak low-pressure wave.
Further upstream, an occluding low is noted over Nunavut to
northern Ontario.

The upper low will continue drifting east off the Atlantic
Seaboard early next week, with a quasi-zonal flow setting up over
the Ohio Valley. Though model spread increases, the general
patterns are apparent. An amplifying trough will dive southeast
into the Northeast/Central Appalachians by Wednesday night.
Upper-level ridging returns to the region on Thursday or Thursday
night before renewed troughing later in the week. At the surface,
high pressure will dominate our weather from Sunday night through
Tuesday night. A subtle cold front will dive southeast during that
time, but decay as it crosses eastern Kentucky on Monday or
Monday night. Another cold front approaches Wednesday night but
will be moisture-starved. A stronger surface low will track along
the US/Canadian border late in the week. Southerly return flow
ahead of the system`s cold front will develop across the area
late in the week, bringing deeper moisture northward and yielding
rising rain chances.

In sensible weather terms, dry and fair weather returns for most
of the new work week, with low-end rain chances returning on
Friday. Rain chances return Friday. High temperatures will
moderate from the upper 50s and low 60s on Monday into the mid and
upper 60s by Wednesday before briefly cooling off Thursday,
though moderating again on Friday. Nighttime lows will range from
the 30s to the 40s, and will be coldest on Sunday and Monday
nights.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

VFR conditions, except MVFR or worse in valley fog, are noted at
TAF issuance. As high pressure shifts east today, moisture and
clouds will increase, first at the mid and high levels
particularly after 15Z. Ceilings gradually lower to MVFR later in
the period as light rain/showers develop with locally worse
conditions possible late tonight. Light and variable winds will
become southwest to west at generally 5 to 10KT through the end
the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP