487
FXUS63 KJKL 120000 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will range from near to slightly above normal
  through next week.

- Chances for showers and storms persist through the upcoming
  weekend and into next week, mainly during each afternoon and
  evening hours. These chances peak Sunday and again late next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure off to the northwest of the
area with high pressure to the southeast. The convective cycle
appears to have mostly run its course during the afternoon and
earlier in the evening with just a few isolated showers around
now. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 80s,
most places. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints
are generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Have updated the
forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids along with a touch up to the PoPs per the latest
radar loop and CAMs guidance through dawn, Saturday. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 309 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025

Scattered popup showers and thunderstorms continue across eastern
Kentucky at mid-afternoon. The latest analysis suggests that the
more organized activity that is exiting into southwest Virginia
was forced by a weak vorticity max now along the VA/KY border.
Spottier activity over the remainder of the area is occurring
within a very weak 500hPa shortwave trough ahead of a weak
vorticity lobe that extends from northeast Ohio to central
Kentucky. Outside of these small-scale perturbations, rising
heights are keeping mid-level lapse rates weak which is limiting
instability and updraft vigor (as is the lack of shear). Outside
of the smattering of convection, temperatures are seasonably hot
in the 85 to 90 degree range with dew points not far from 70
degrees. A glance at the regional weather maps shows weak
shortwave ridging off to our west over Western Kentucky to up
along the Illinois/Indiana border. A more amplified shortwave
trough with a vigorous vorticity max is situated from southeast
Minnesota southwestward into the northeast Kansas.

The splattering of generally weak convection is expected to
gradually wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating. The
weak vorticity lobe immediately to our north and west will be
sheared apart this evening as the upper level shortwave fills.
This will leave a weak vorticity max drifting over eastern
Kentucky tonight, keeping a lingering isolated shower or
thunderstorm chance overnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies,
light winds, and ample low level moisture will yield another
environment favorable for fog formation, especially in the favored
valley locales. On Saturday, the aforementioned robust 500hPa
shortwave will move into the Lower Ohio Valley while weak pulses
of energy eject toward the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields. Convective
initiation is likely to be forced over the higher terrain near
the VA/KY border due to differential heating. However, CAM
guidance also suggests one or more loosely organized convective
lines developing over the Lower Ohio Valley, developing a cold
pool, and pushing eastward before diminishing in the evening due
to waning instability. MUCAPE values peaking in the 2,000 to 3,000
J/kg range, a 0-6 km mean wind exceeding 16 kts, and a DCAPE in
the 800-1000 J/kg range are all favorable for cold-pool driven
convective systems, but the lack of shear will be a limiting
factor. Thus a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorm wind
gusts seem plausible with the most organized convection. SPC has
issued a Marginal risk for severe weather in northern Fleming
County on Day 2, Saturday, and this will be re-assessed by later
shifts. On Saturday night, convection should once again diminish
with the loss of daytime heating, leaving behind variable cloud
cover and areas of fog for a vast majority of the area.

In sensible terms, look for the ongoing popup showers and
thunderstorms to diminish this evening, though a stray shower or
storm cannot be ruled out overnight. It will be partly cloudy and
muggy with areas of fog, especially in valleys, and low
temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70. On Saturday, look for
mostly sunny, hot and humid conditions with temperatures
rebounding into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Those temperatures
combined with elevated humidity levels will feel more like 95 to
100 degrees. The hot, steamy conditions will fuel renewed showers
and thunderstorms with coverage likely to be a little more
extensive than today. The strongest activity could produce brief
heavy rainfall and strong, gusty winds as well. Storms and showers
wane once again Saturday evening with warm and muggy conditions
lingering through the overnight, similar to the prior night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025

Models are in relatively good agreement on a zonal mid-level jet
stream remaining well north of the area along the US/Canada border
through the period, with persistent weak mid-level troughing
remaining within a relatively weak flow regime aloft either just
upstream or over the area. A weak surface front will attempt to push
across the area Monday, but models are increasingly coming into
better agreement that this front will not completely clear the area
and in fact may stall across eastern Kentucky. This will keep mostly
diurnally-driven convection in the forecast for much of the long-
term period.

Highest PoPs will be Sunday ahead of the front under a weak warm-
advection regime, and then again Thursday as warm advection begins
to increase ahead of a stronger system that appears poised to arrive
toward next weekend (Days 8-10). Lowest PoPs appear to be Tuesday
into Wednesday, but there is an increasing trend in these PoPs from
the previous package.

Highs will generally reach the mid- to upper-80s most days, but may
reach the lower 90s Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday given height
rises, and especially if any drier air can result in less cloud
cover and precipitation. This may bring a subsequent increase in the
heat risk as forecast heat index values begin to approach 100
degrees in the warmest locations, especially Wednesday into
Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail outside of scattered pop-up showers around
the area at TAF issuance time. Another round of reduced IFR/MVFR
visibility is possible with fog overnight/early Saturday and is
more likely to impact terminals that experience rainfall earlier
in the day. Confidence in visibility impacts at any particular
terminal were too low to include in the TAFs at this time aside
from some TEMPOs. Once the fog clears, VFR conditions hold but
some scattered convection will be possible in the afternoon and
early evening hours. Winds will generally be under 10 kts through
the period, though could be locally stronger and erratic near
thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF