531
FXUS63 KJKL 060031 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
831 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing cold front brings a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms to mainly eastern parts of the area on Sunday
  evening and Sunday night.

- Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees above normal again
  Sunday before typical autumn-like readings arrive on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations.
Deeper eastern valley locations were experiencing temperatures
falling off more quickly than the previous forecast per KY Mesonet
station and home network weather station data. At this point, the
forecast low temperatures appear on track. Valley fog will be
probable developing by midnight or shortly after along the rivers
and the larger creeks and near lakes and expanding in coverage
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 404 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024

Overall a fairly quiet short term period despite an incoming system.
High pressure east of the state this afternoon will continue to
shift away from the region, though we should still remain under it`s
control through tomorrow. Heights will begin to lower aloft during
the day Sunday as a strong upper level low moves towards the Upper
Great Lakes. At the surface this will produce a low pressure system
and a cold front which will trail southward through the Ohio Valley.
It should reach western Kentucky during the afternoon hours Sunday,
central and eastern Kentucky by 0Z Monday, and move out of the state
around 6Z or shortly after.

For tonight, given how much fog we incurred last night and this
morning, and the light winds still in place, can`t rule out a repeat
of last night. However, with a day of drying, hopefully the extent
and intensity will not be as impactful. Did include areas of fog in
the river valleys, but will have to keep an eye on it heading into
the overnight for any updates to the forecast.

With the high pressure located to our northeast, and an incoming
frontal system, light and variable winds today and tonight will
shift to a more southwesterly direction through the day Sunday. This
will help to advect warmer air into the region, with highs topping
out in the low and mid 80s, a degree or two higher than today. All
models show moisture along the front, but given how far away we are
from the parent low, most of the moisture and precip chances will be
north of the state. That being said, all models are in good
agreement that some precip will scrape the eastern CWA, producing
light rain amounts. Given the warm temps and the frontal boundary,
can`t rule out some instability along the front, so did keep in some
thunder wording as it moves through.

As the front exits in the middle of the night, you can see a lot of
dry air filtering in behind as NW flow takes hold and high pressure
sits off to our west. Because of the quick transport of drier air
into the region, skies should also quickly clear out. Therefore,
can`t rule out some ridge/valley temperatures differences. Overall,
temperatures should be cool with the combination of CAA, clear
skies, and light winds - overnight lows will generally be in the 40s
to around 50. Also kept some fog chances in the deep valleys given
the lingering moisture on the ground with a more stable airmass
moving in and the low temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024

A negatively tilted trough over Southeast Canada and Northeastern
CONUS will continue its progression next week into the Nova Scotia
area, while a ridge of high pressure builds across Western CONUS.
The next tropical system, Tropical Storm Milton, located in the
western Gulf of Mexico, is currently forecasted to track north and
east over Florida and continue out over the Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern Kentuckys weather will be quiet during this stretch with
seasonable temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s during the
days, and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s in valleys, and low to
mid 40s along ridgetops.

Friday and Saturday, the ridge of high pressure over the Central
U.S. will continue to progress east towards the area. This will lead
to rising heights aloft, and subsequently temperatures warming into
the low to mid 70s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2024

VFR will prevail throughout the period. The lone exception will be
fog developing in the valleys between 02Z and 05Z. Impacts at the
TAF sites will likely be less than the past couple of mornings and
recent guidance has trended to VFR for the TAF sites per
Consshort, the NBM, and LAMP guidance. High pressure will also be
moving east during the period as cold front beings to approach
and winds will become more south to southwest tonight on ridges
and in more open terrain areas, and then southwest after the
nocturnal inversion mixes out near 15Z. The fog may also lead to
some mixiness outside of the deeper sheltered valleys and limit
fog development there in places such as KSME, KLOZ, and KSYM.
Otherwise, winds will be light and variable overnight and then
become southwest at 3 to 10KT after 15Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP