371
FXUS63 KJKL 272130
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
530 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures are forecast for Friday through
  the weekend.

- Multiple rounds of showers, and perhaps thunderstorms, are
  expected over the next several days. The greatest coverage for
  the area as a whole is forecast at times from Sunday into
  Monday.

- After a brief cool-down Monday night into Tuesday, above to well
  above normal temperatures should return.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 530 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025

An upper trough continues to drift away off the East Coast, but a
southern stream shortwave lies upstream over TX, with a much more
minor wave ahead of it. Meanwhile, weak northern stream impulses
are making their way through the flow over the Midwest as well.
At the surface, high pressure is slowly departing off the East
Coast, and a low pressure system over the northern high plains
takes aim at the upper Midwest.

Our near surface air continues to flow out of the high late today
and is very dry. However, moisture aloft has been carried north on
isentropic lift and is then being advected east southeast toward
us. The aforementioned northern stream impulses are interacting
with the moisture and producing showers to our west and northwest,
but they have been drying up as they move toward us. They are
expected to eventually have some success at eating into our drier
air mass and may affect the JKL forecast area tonight, with the
greatest POP in the north. This activity will depart to our
northeast early on Friday.

Overnight and on Friday our pressure gradient will tighten as low
pressure moves across the Midwest. This will increase our flow and
it will be somewhat less directed out of the high/ridge. This will
allow our low level moisture levels to creep upward. The
aforementioned lead, weak wave in the southern stream is expected
to approach from the west southwest on Friday afternoon. This
could be enough to bring us some showers, or even thunderstorms
(based on weak instability in NAM soundings), but the POP is only
in the slight chance range in the afternoon. Any of this activity
is expected to die out by evening and allow for a break during the
night before the main southern stream shortwave heads in during
the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 426 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025

Active weather is expected through the end of March and the beginning
of April, with multiple disturbances bringing rain and thunderstorm
chances to the state through the long-term period.

Two such systems converge into an area from the Upper Great Lakes to
the Upper Ohio Valley this weekend. It starts from an upper level
low ejecting out of the Pacific Northwest on Friday afternoon. This
upper-low will then pass through the Northern Plains all while
another upper-low initially over the Lower Mississippi Valley,
begins to travel north and east towards the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley, with help from a Bermuda high. This will likely lead to
multiple rounds of rain starting Saturday evening through Monday.
Showers will pick up in coverage overnight Saturday into Sunday
before a lull  in shower and thunderstorm coverage and intensity
Sunday afternoon and evening. A second round overnight Sunday,
through Monday will bring with it a cold frontal passage, and the
threat for winds, and hail. Sufficient MUCAPE Sunday afternoon
around 1000 J/kg along with wind shear of 30-40 knots are some
severe weather parameters that appear present. Using a combination
of CIPS Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance, as well as AI
machine learning tools, as confidence builders, the better
environment for supercell development continues to be further south
and west towards the Lower Mississippi Valley, and western
portions of the Tennessee & Lower Ohio Valleys for Sunday.
Persistent south to southwesterly flow Saturday and Sunday will
allow for temperatures to climb 15-20 degrees above climatological
norms, in the upper 70s to low 80s. With overcast skies both
Saturday and Sunday night, diurnal temperature swings won`t be as
large, with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s
each night.

During the day Monday, showers and thunderstorms will slowly tapper
off throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Winds will slowly
veer through the day from a southwest wind in the morning to to
northwest through the afternoon. This will introduce cold air
advection into Eastern Kentucky and shave into how warm the
temperatures will get during the day. Temperatures are forecast to
rise in to the 60s, near 70 in the south. In the wake of the system
Monday, a weak shortwave passes across the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio
Valley area Monday night leading to a low chance of showers (15-30%
chance) across Southeastern Kentucky, diminishing to under a 10%
chance for Tuesday. With winds diminishing and continuing to veer to
a northwesterly direction, cold air advection along with dew points
in the 30s, will allow temperatures to dip into the upper 30s to
lower 40s. Some frost may be possible if valleys come within a few
degrees of their expected dew points, mainly across the Bluegrass.

Winds will continue to veer through the day from northerly to
northeasterly, continuing to advect cold air into the area.
Temperatures do manage to climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s along
and north of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor, and upper 60s south of
it. After breif clearing during the day Tuesday, clouds are
currently expected to increase across the area Tuesday night ahead
of the next approaching system. Temperatures will be warmer than
Monday night, by 5-10 degrees in some spots, as the clouds will
insulate the area from radiational cooling at night. Temperatures
will generally be in the 40s.

As eastern Kentucky heads into Wednesday and Thursday next week,
winds will continue to veer, becoming southerly in direction.
Temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will rise into the 70s
each day. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with this
system, yet timing is still being worked out. With anticipated
cloud shields at night, overnight lows are anticipated to be
warmer, settling into the mid to upper 50s range each night. Stay
tuned for the latest changes and updates!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the period, although ceilings
in the 7K-15K ft AGL range will occur at times. A few light
showers are possible, mainly late tonight into Friday in
locations to the northeast of the Cumberland drainage basin.

Winds will be less than 10 kts through tonight, and then increase
to around 10 kts from the southwest at most places by the end of
the period. Low level wind shear may also be a concern for a time
early Friday morning, mainly for the northwest portion of the
forecast area.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL