430
FXUS63 KJKL 130835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather continues across eastern
  Kentucky through the work week.

- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for the duration of the forecast period.

- While confidence in specific details remains low, the next
  chance of showers/storms will come next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Ohio Valley
continuing to dominate the weather for Kentucky. There remains a
significant storm off the Southeast Coast that is sending some
high clouds into the eastern parts of the area drifting west and
dissipating. These clouds did slow down the radiational cooling a
bit in the east but the rest of the area saw an enhanced ridge to
valley temperature difference along with the development of fog
in the river valleys. Currently, temperatures range from the mid
50s on the hills to the mid 40s in the western low spots.
Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are generally
in the mid 40s west to the lower 50s in the east - under the
clouds.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of
the forecast. They all depict a large 5h trough consolidating to
the east of Kentucky with its core of mid level energy. While
this occurs, ridging will nose into Kentucky from the southwest
still keeping the pattern quiet and benign over this part of the
state through Tuesday evening. The models` persistent small
spread supported the NBM as the starting point of the grids with
minimal adjustments needed - mainly just terrain driven
enhancements to the hourly temperatures at night.

Sensible weather features seasonably warm temperatures during the
days with dry conditions into the new work week. Any lingering
high clouds from the sfc cyclone well east of Kentucky will likely
not interfere with the dry air`s ability to warm each day. Typical
valley fog can be expected late at night (and early each morning)
along with modest ridge to valley temperature differences.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures at night along
with some extra drying applied to the dewpoints and RH during the
afternoons.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025

Once again the main changes to the extended forecast this morning
were to enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to
valley split to the temperatures each night through the work week,
along with a touch of extra drying each afternoon from the mix
down of lower dewpoints aloft. PoPs still appear to be quite
limited during the upcoming week but there is increasing
confidence in showers and/or storms returning to the area for
next weekend along with a potential for heavy rain due to a slow
moving cold front dropping into the state.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Ridging prevails through the end of the week, with the exception
of a brief period of northwesterly flow aloft allowing for a
backdoor cold front to move south and then southwesterly across
eastern Kentucky during the day Wednesday. This will bring a
cooldown, especially for overnight lows Thursday night, as cold
advection diminishes and excellent radiational cooling develops.
This will allow for lows in some of our more sheltered valleys to
drop into the mid to upper 30s, which will also mean the chance
for some patchy frost, particularly in our northeastern counties.

Warm advection increases Friday into the weekend ahead of another
potentially stronger disturbance that looks to impact the area next
weekend. This system looks to have pretty good jet support, with the
operational GFS and ECMWF models depicting different solutions
though still roughly in line with the global model ensemble
consensus. Possible impacts include strong to severe storms upstream
over the Mississippi and/or Lower Ohio Valleys at some point,
with more local downstream impacts still to be determined.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025

A ceiling of about 4-5K ft AGL is attempting to move westward
into the JKL forecast area. Confidence is not very high
concerning the progress of the clouds and how well they will hold
together during the rest of the night. If/where they remain
dominant, they will tend to inhibit valley fog development.
Elsewhere, valley fog is developing and becoming locally dense.
The TAF sites with the greatest potential to be affected by IFR or
worse conditions from fog by dawn are KSME, KLOZ, and KSYM. Any
fog will dissipate on Monday morning, leaving VFR conditions to
finish the period. Winds will be light and variable through the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF