995
FXUS63 KJKL 040324
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1124 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times
  through the next week, mainly during the afternoon and evening
  hours on most days.

- Our ongoing break from the heat and humidity continues through
  Wednesday before temperatures warm late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025

Overnight forecast remains on track, warranting only minor
adjustments to bring hourly forecast in line with latest
observations.

UPDATE Issued at 757 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025

Shower activity is drifting west and fading this evening, as
expected. Primary concern overnight appears to be locally dense
fog in the sheltered river valleys, especially in the Cumberland
and Kentucky River basins. Look for temperatures to dip back into
the lower and middle 60s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025

Late this afternoon, a general area of broad troughing extended
from the Central COnus to the OH and TN Valleys to portions of
the Appalachians and Southeast. A ridge of sfc high pressure
extended from the Mid Atlantic states to the Great Lakes while a
sfc frontal zone extended from the Atlantic across the Gulf sates
to the Southern Plains. An inverted sfc trough extended north of
this boundary into the Commonwealth. Recent Mesoanalysis has PW
values ranging from 1.3 in Fleming County arcing to the Big Sandy
region with values of 1.7 inches or greater in parts of south
central Ky into the Lake Cumberland region west of I-75. Showers
with some thunderstorms at times have affected portions of south
central KY and mainly the southwest parts of the JKL CWA into the
Cumberland Plateau over the past few hours. Some of these have
produced rainfall rates of 2 inches or more per hour earlier in
the day generally outside of the CWA. A few showers have developed
further north and east with daytime heating though recently these
showers and storms have been more progressive. CLouds have
persisted the most in the southwest with the coldest readings are
present there and warmest temperatures in the north and east into
a bit drier air where clouds have been less prevalent.

The main concern into early this evening is the possibility of
some areas in the southwest to pick up multiple heavy downpours or
some slower moving persistent heavier rain. WPC has a marginal
ERO into this region and this possibility has been messaged in the
HWO and on social media. Otherwise, a gradual decrease in
coverage of convection should occur toward and after sunset though
with the weak mid and upper troughing potential may hang on in
the more western locations through the night. Where rain fell
today as well as in the deeper valleys fog may form overnight and
could be more significant in the southwest where rain fell
assuming sufficient clearing.

Inverted troughing should remain the OH Valley vicinity on Monday
though shift more to the north and west and somewhat deeper
moisture, with PW values in excess of 1.5 to 1.6 inches per 12Z
HREF, should shift to the north and west of eastern KY as well.
The axis of upper troughing will remain to the west of the area,
however, and a diurnal peak in isolated to scattered convection
is expected during Monday afternoon and evening. Some of the more
eastern locations will continue to have lower PW values nearer to
1.2 to 1.3 per the 12Z HREF and may again largely be
precipitation free. With a bit less cloud cover anticipated
overall, temperatures should moderate a few degrees as compared to
today for most locations, but . Valley fog should form assuming
sufficient clearing for Monday night with any ridge/valley
temperature differences minimal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025

As the period begins, guidance continues to have an upper level
ridge centered in the western Atlantic and another ridge centered
over NM and the Southern Plains and extending into the High
Plains. Meanwhile the OH Valley region should be in an area of
upper level troughing between the two ridges with the axis of this
troughing extending through the MS Valley. At the surface, the
period should begin with a ridge of sfc high pressure centered
over the mid Atlantic states with a nearly stationary front
extending from the Atlantic across northern FL and near the Gulf
coast and then into portions of the Plains. PW per the 12Z HREF
mean, the period should begin with PW Values of roughly 1.3 to 1.5
or close to the climatological mean.

From Tuesday to Wednesday night, ridging centered over the Southern
Rockies/NM vicinity is expected to strengthen a build east and
northeast into the Central and Southern Plains and Central Conus
and toward the mid MS Valley. Meanwhile, ridging centered in the
Atlantic near Bermuda is expected to remain. Upper level
troughing should remain in between these ridges with the axis of
it moving into the Great Lakes to OH and TN Valleys to sections of
the southeast by late Wed. The upper troughing will keep the
potential for clouds from time to time as well as convection
and there may be weak sfc troughs present across the OH valley as
well. A general diurnal peak in both clouds and convection is
anticipated each afternoon and evening from Tuesday to Wednesday.
The NBM continues to be rather consistent with temperatures
remaining near if not a few degrees below normal. With the
pattern and time of year not favoring much in the way of
ridge/valley temperature splits/differences for min T and guidance
in overall good agreement, no notable chances were needed for NBM
guidance into the middle of the week.

For Thursday to Friday night, the axis of upper level troughing
or a broad upper low should continue to remain near or west of
eastern KY with ridging centered in the western Atlantic
persisting along with another upper level ridge remaining from
northwest Mexico to NM into portions of the Central to Southern
Plains. An upper low and associated trough should also work
across sections of western Canada and the Northwest Conus and
Great Basin as well as parts of the Northern Rockies during this
period and near the Northern Plains. PW near climatology means is
anticipated as well per the 00Z LREF mean. As during the start of
the work week, the second half of the week should favor diurnally
driven convection though a bit less coverage is suggested by
guidance compared to Wednesday. With a bit less coverage of clouds
and convection, a modest upward trend in temperatures is
suggested by guidance to near normal. Again with the pattern not
favoring much in the way of ridge/valley temperature splits,
little if any changes were needed as compared to the NBM.

Saturday to Sunday, a weakness/weak troughing between ridging
centered in the western Atlantic that guidance generally builds
west toward sections of the eastern seaboard and upper level
ridging building into the Northwest Conus should remain for most
or all of the period. In addition, a much more significant trough
should reach portions of Canada into the Northern to Central
Plains and upper MS Valley over the weekend. A ridge of sfc high
pressure should remain into next weekend from portions of the
Northeast into the Appalachians with guidance generally supporting
500 mb height rises to end the weekend. Near to slightly above
normal temperatures are anticipated for next weekend with isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025

Primarily VFR conditions were reported at TAF issuance, though
cloud cover remained extensive in many areas. Leftover showers,
primarily near and west of I-75, should continue to diminish
through the evening. Some clearing is likely overnight which
combined with suppressed daytime temperatures and lingering low-
level moisture will set the stage for some fog formation
overnight, especially in the deeper sheltered valleys. Confidence
in fog formation is lower at the TAF sites, due to lingering
modest southeasterly low-level flow. The lightest winds by late in
the night are expected at SME, LOZ, and JKL and that may allow
for fog impacts, as noted in the TAFs. Of note, the low-level flow
strength slightly favors the fog lifting into a low stratus deck
so low ceilings are also noted at these TAF sites. At SJS and SYM,
fog formation is less favored as low-level flow will be strongest
over these terminals. Any low stratus or fog will lift/dissipate
on Monday with the onset of daytime heating. Winds will average
less than 10KT through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON