114
FXUS63 KJKL 092007
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
407 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend commences today and persists through mid-week.

- Well above normal temperatures, about 15 to 20+ degrees above
  normal, are expected from Tue through Sat.

- Low relative humidity and an increase in winds could result in
  near critical fire weather conditions Tue and/or Wed afternoons.
  Winds also could be gusty with rather low rh for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 404 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025

The forecast starts off with a period of quiet weather. High
pressure will be in control across the Ohio Valley to start the work
week. A strong upper level and surface low will be passing through
the Deep  South. While precip from this system should remain well
south of the state, can`t rule out some high clouds through the rest
of today and into Monday, before the system exits towards the
Atlantic seaboard. Zonal flow will then take hold for much of
Tuesday, as surface winds become more southwesterly on the backside
of the exiting high pressure system. Per discussions with the
midnight shift and neighboring offices, the pattern suggests a dry
airmass, with moisture advection cut off due to the passing system
in the south, and increased radiational warming. This could lead to
some fire concerns, though thankfully the winds don`t look to be a
concerning - rather generally light and variable. Again geared the
forecast towards the midnight shift, nudging towards the 50th/75th
percentile of the NBM for temperatures, and towards the 10th
percentile for the dew points. As was noted on the midnight shift,
the dew points may still end up being lower than the 10th
percentile...but will be something to watch.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 404 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025

By Tuesday, models show a surface low pressure system moving through
eastern Canada, dragging a cold front through the Great Lakes, Upper
Mississippi Valley, and into the Plains, connecting to another weak
low pressure system. As this northern system outpaces the Plains
system eastward throughout the day, the boundary will elongate from
west to east, becoming stalled between the northern and southern
stream flows aloft. As it sits stagnant just north of the Ohio
River, the Commonwealth will remain on the south/warm side, with
continued SW flow from Tuesday through Wednesday. This will finally
allow dew points to slowly increase.

By the start of Thursday, a pattern shift will make it to the Ohio
Valley, as an upper level low crosses the Mississippi River into
Kentucky by 12Z. Meanwhile, the associated surface system will be
lagging behind, still quite a ways westward in the Central Plains
through the day Thursday. The stationary front that was just north
of the state will transition to a warm front, again, keeping much of
Kentucky in the warm sector well into the day Friday. From here, the
strengthening surface system will quickly begin to gather momentum,
shifting northeast, and ramping up winds at the surface ahead of
it`s cold front Friday night. The cold front is set to pass through
the state during the day Saturday.

As for sensible weather starting Thursday, expect the passing upper
level system to instigate some showers during the day, mainly during
peak mixing. This should mainly impact the western CWA with
scattered showers, as it`s closer to the trough axis. These showers
will quickly diminish heading into the overnight with loss of
heating/mixing, and the surface system still quite a ways from the
state. The next chance of rain will then impact eastern Kentucky
starting Friday night and increasing into Saturday along the passage
of the cold front. This system is still a week out, but will be
something to watch as it nears. Given the continued S to SW flow
throughout the week, increasing towards the weekend, we can
expect increasing and above normal temperatures each days, with
highs typically topping out in the 70s each day. Post cold front
temperatures could be quite cooler by next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025

High pressure remains overhead for today. VFR conditions will
continue through the period amid periodic high clouds passing
through the area. Winds will generally be light and variable
through the period as well.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JMW