499
FXUS63 KJKL 011200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will affect the area at times until a cold front passes
  through eastern Kentucky tonight.

- Behind tonight`s cold front, dry weather will arrive on
  Wednesday and persist into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM EDT TUE OCT 1 2024

A mixture of locally dense fog and low stratus have enveloped
eastern Kentucky early this morning. Anticipate that the fog will
will lift within a couple hours after sunrise. However, low clouds
will remain prevalent throughout the day. There is a slight chance
of showers this morning (15-30%) followed by a better chance of
showers this afternoon (25-40%) ahead of the approaching cold
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT TUE OCT 1 2024

A mild and quiet early October morning is unfolding across eastern
Kentucky. Thermometers are mainly reading in the lower and middle
60s and nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows variable
cloud cover in place. Some fog has developed/is developing,
primarily in areas where clearing has been more persistent. The
latest analysis shows the upper level level low of recent days
shifting away to over the Mid-Atlantic. In its wake, remnant
surface troughing lingers over the Commonwealth while shortwave
500H ridging extends from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the
Great Lakes. Further upstream, a cold front sweeps out an arc,
extending from a deep surface low north of Churchill, Manitoba
southward across the Upper Michigan Peninsula before turning
southwestward and continuing to over the southern High Plains.

Variable cloud cover is expected to continue through the early
morning as plenty of low and mid-level moisture lingers over the
area. Where substantial clearing persists, fog is likely to form
and and could become locally dense. Temperatures will remain mild
for early October, bottoming out in the lower 60s for most
places.

Vorticity energy at 700 mb associated with the upper low to our
northwest will rotate across eastern Kentucky today while the
500H shortwave ridging passes aloft. This combination will set the
stage for scattered shallow convective showers capped by a strong
stable and dry layer above 700 mb. This stable layer should
prohibit any convection deepening enough to generate lightning.
Otherwise, expect a mix of clouds and sun with seasonable high
temperatures mostly in the mid 70s.

The cold front arrives from the northwest after sunset tonight. CAMs
favor scattered showers along and ahead of the boundary. Behind
the boundary, weak cold air advection commences on a light
northwesterly breeze, cooling late night temperatures into the
mid 50s northwest of I-64 ranging up to the lower 60s in deep
valleys near the Virginia border. Lingering low stratus is
expected to only break up/erode slowly from the northwest on
Wednesday. Wednesday temperatures will be noticeably cooler with
highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT TUE OCT 1 2024

The latest models have a broad and nearly flat ridge of high
pressure aloft in place over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on down
to the Gulf Coast to begin the period. This ridge should allow for
dry and pleasant weather across eastern Kentucky Wednesday night
through early Friday morning. After that, a fast moving and ill
defined cold is progged to move quickly through the region on
Friday. We might see scattered rain showers that day, especially
during the afternoon, but it looks as though instability will be
scant enough to keep thunder at bay. We should then see a brief
period of dry weather across the area Friday night and over much of
of the weekend. Another disturbance aloft is then forecast to move
quickly across the northern CONUS and eventually across the Great
Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions from late Sunday through
Monday. This system would again bring isolated to scattered rain
showers to the area should the models be correct.

Based on the latest data, we could see several days in a row of
above normal temperatures in the extended. Daily highs are progged
to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s around the area Thursday
through Sunday, as we see periods of southerly flow and good
sunshine that will modify the airmass that will be in place before
the first system moves through. Once the second cold front moves
through Sunday into the first of next week, we should see a
substantial cool down, as a shot of cooler air filters into the
region behind the second cold front after it moves by. In fact,
highs next Monday might only make it into the upper 60s and lower
70s around the area. Nightly lows will be in the 40s ad 50s during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT TUE OCT 1 2024

At TAF issuance, conditions varied from LIFR to VLIFR at terminals
across eastern Kentucky. Low stratus and fog will slowly lift
through the remainder of the morning and midday hours, yielding to
MVFR to VFR conditions during the afternoon. Vicinity showers were
mentioned during the afternoon and evening in anticipation of
scattered showers ahead of and along a cold front. Light winds
this morning will become variable to northerly around 5 kts or
less this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON