905
FXUS63 KJKL 171732
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
132 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms arrive late Saturday evening/night
  lasting into Sunday. Any storms could produce strong wind gusts
  and torrential downpours.

- Sunday wind gusts of 30 mph or greater are likely, with the
  probability of 40+ mph remaining at a 10 to 30 percent chance.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025

Temperatures have been running a little cooler than prior
forecast, so this afternoon`s high temperature values were nudged
down a degree across most of the area -- anticipate highs to 69
north foothills to 77 near Lake Cumberland.

UPDATE Issued at 1040 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025

Fog has lifted and dissipated across the eastern Kentucky
Coalfields, leaving bright sunshine an a few high cirriform
clouds. Look for high clouds to gradually increase in coverage from
the southwest as we head through the afternoon. Still anticipate
high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s this afternoon in
most locations with a few upper 70s possible near Lake
Cumberland. Hourly T and Sky cover forecasts have been brought
into line with the latest observations; otherwise, forecast was
still in good shape for the remainder of today.

UPDATE Issued at 744 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025

Fog lingers in the river valleys and along the largest creeks
while cirrus is passing overhead. This valley fog should lift and
dissipate by the 9 to 10 AM timeframe. Otherwise, high pressure
will bring a milder day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 555 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025

Early this morning, an upper level ridge extended from the
Caribbean across the Gulf tot he Lower OH Valley to western Great
Lakes to western Ontario. Meanwhile, an upper level ow was
centered near the border area of ND with Saskatchewan and Alberta
with a trailing 500 mb trough axis into the Great Basin to
southern CA and into the Pacific. At the surface, high pressure
was centered over the mid to upper OH Valley region. Locally, fog
has formed along the river valleys and along some of the largest
creeks and area lakes with this generally more widespread in the
KY and Big Sandy River basins. Per KY Mesonet and home weather
station networks temperatures have dropped to as low as 36 to 39
where fog has not been present or only transient while
temperatures at 5 AM ranged through the 40s to around 50 elsewhere.

Today, the upper level ridge axis should shift east to the
Caribbean to FL to the Southern Appalachians to eastern KY to
central and eastern Great Lakes. At the same time, the sfc high
pressure ridge should shift toward the eastern seaboard. Further
west and northwest, the upper low should track into Ontario and
begin to merge with another trough working across western Canada
while a shortwave trough axis moves into the Upper MS Valley to
Central Plains and another shortwave track to the Four Corners to
Baja region and anther shortwave reaches the Northern Rockies/MT.
Meanwhile, an associated sfc low should reach far western Ontario
this evening with an initial cold front extending south into the
Upper MS valley to Central to Southern Plains while another more
substantial cold front drops south of the US/Canadian border into
ND to MT. Locally, initial river valley fog should lift and
dissipate through about 2 to 3 hours past sunrise or the 9 to 10
AM EDT timeframe. Otherwise, the airmass should moderate today
with the sfc high departing to the east while dewpoints change
very little. This should result in humidity falling to near or
below 30 percent in several locations this afternoon. Winds will
be light, however.

Tonight and Saturday, The axis of the upper level ridge will move
east to near the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, further west,
shortwaves should begin to merge into a developing trough over the
Central Conus/Plains as the pattern amplifies and the 500 mb
trough axis approaches the MS Valley. The initial cold front
should more or less merge with the secondary colder push with the
boundary reaching the western Great LAkes to mid MS Valley to TX
and OK panhandles regions by Saturday evening. Locally, valley fog
should again be a feature along the river valleys, the largest
creeks, and area rivers tonight. Lows however should be 5 to 10
degree milder compared to current readings. Otherwise, return flow
and warm advection ahead of the front will lead to a further
moderation in temperatures for Saturday, with highs forecast in
the low to mid 80s for elevations below 2000 feet. Dewpoints
should reach the 50s with PW climbing to 1 inch and above for
further west and northwest locations and above the 80th percentile
climatologically per 00Z LREF. However, rain chances should hold
off until the start of the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 555 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025

The upper level trough axis should move to the MS Valley region
Saturday night while a lead shortwave is expected to move across
the Commonwealth. At the surface, the associated cold front should
reach MI to Central KY to the Lower MS Valley by dawn on Sunday.
The system will be quite dynamic with the 500 mb trough
negatively tilted as it crosses the Commonwealth on Sunday and
then departs to the east and northeast on Sunday night. Moisture
will increase ahead of the approaching trough axis and cold front
Saturday night and into early Sunday with PW poised to peak in the
1.1 to 1.4 inch range or around 83rd to 93rd percentile per 00Z
LREF mean. Instability will be quite limited near and ahead of the
front with 00Z LREF mean generally peaking at 100 to 200 J/kg,
however, winds aloft will be quite swift and bulk shear should
peak on the order of 40 to 50KT. Showers and any storms should
move quite quickly and what storms that manage to form and/or a
potential convective line near or in advance of the front will
pose a threat of strong wind gusts. Outside of storms, momentum
transfer suggests the potential for wind gusts of at least 30 to
35KT or possibly nearing the lower end of wind advisory criteria.
for Wind gusts in particular and to an extent sustained wind
magnitudes blending toward the 90th percentile of the NBM as bias
correcting in the deterministic washes out the probability of
stronger wind gusts with a rather dynamic system. Brief heavy
downpours should also occur with any storms.

Moisture decreases Sunday evening into Sunday night with the PW
progged to fall to around 0.5 inches and drop a bit more into
Monday as an upper level ridge works from the Central Conus into
the OH Valley to Southeast with a ridge of surface high pressure
preceding it across the Southeast and into the OH Valley.
Depending on how quickly the pressure gradient relaxes on Sunday
night and skies clear valley fog could become a concern following
the anticipated rainfall this weekend.

The pattern will remain somewhat zonal/active into the middle of
the week with another upper low and associated trough progressing
from the Central Conus to the Great Lakes and eastern Conus from
Monday to Wednesday as the departs to the east. This system will
have less moisture to work with though a few showers are possible
late Monday night into Tuesday. Brief ridging/500 mb height rises
are progged for late Tuesday night into Wednesday night or early
on Thursday. Sfc high pressure should build into the Lower OH
Valley from the Mid to Lower MS valley late Tue night into
Wednesday, with the sfc high gradually shifting east late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Some of the typically colder spots
could drop to readings that could support patchy frost for
Wednesday night. This potential was not added to the HWO as of yet
as confidence is low and the main forecast concerns at this point
are associated with the front over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025

High pressure will dominate through the period as it gradually
departs to the east. VFR conditions were prevailing at TAF
issuance and will continue through the period, except in
sheltered river valleys (e.g K1A6 and KBYL, and KI35) where MVFR
or worse visibility reductions are possible in the typical fog
late tonight. Light and variable winds will prevail through the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON