864
FXUS63 KJKL 220038
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
738 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of rain showers continue through Saturday morning as a
  series of fronts move through the region. A few thunderstorms
  are also possible through tonight.

- Active weather continues into next week, with a strong cold
  front expected to cross the Commonwealth by mid-week.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will move into the region for the
  start of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 738 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025

Showers have increased greatly this evening, and the POP timing
has been adjusted for recent trends and latest model runs.
However, the overall POP for the night has not changed much, with
a categorical 12hr POP for almost all of the area for tonight.
With the intensity, depth, and cloud top temps observed with the
convection in the I-64 corridor, would not be surprised to see
lightning shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 415 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered near James
Bay with a trough extending south into the Great Lakes and
Northeast. The axis of a shortwave trough was moving further east
of the Commonwealth at this time. Meanwhile, an upper level trough
was over the Central Conus with a weakening upper low nearing the
mid MS Valley vicinity, a lead shortwave in advance of it
currently entering the Lower OH valley and there were was another
shortwave trough in with a trailing shortwave further west in the
KS vicinity. At the surface, a warm front has lifted north to
roughly between I-64 and the OH River. PW was analyzed in the 1.1
to 1.4 inch range at present over eastern KY or generally in
excess of the 90th percentile climatologically for this time of
year. Showers are ongoing near the warm front in the northern
half of the area while some showers were also moving across south
central KY and near the Lake Cumberland region. As has been a
recurring theme this week of a north to south temperature
gradient, at 4 PM readings were in  the mid to upper 50s north of
the Mtn Parkway and except for elevations above 2500 feet,
temperatures to the south ranged through the 60s.

This evening and tonight, A shortwave ahead of the weakening
upper low/main shortwave trough will cross the Commonwealth
through this evening with the main shortwave nearing eastern KY
late tonight. Meanwhile, the warm front north of the warm should
slowly begin to return south a cold front later tonight. The
boundary will be nearly nearly parallel to the upper level flow
which could favor a threat of training convection. With rather
deep moisture in place there is a very low but non zero chance
for locally heavy rain. The 18Z HRRR run is the most aggressive
with this idea in a streak from Rockcastle to Pike Counties
crossing near KJKL though many of the recent CAM runs having max
rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches if that. The 20Z HRRR run has a max in
excess of 2 inches near the Mtn Parkway north of KJKL. The
potential for torrential downpours has maintained in the HWO
update this afternoon, but confidence in training occurring is
low at this point. Trends will be monitored by later shifts. Only
a limited drop in temperatures is expected tonight with the front,
clouds and convection in the area.

Saturday and Saturday night, a shortwave should be nearing eastern
KY near sunrise and progress across eastern KY Saturday morning.
An additional shortwave upstream of that should cross the Lower OH
Valley late Saturday to Saturday evening. Thereafter, a trend of
rising 500 mb heights is progged to end the period. Ahead of the
shortwave trough crossing eastern KY on Saturday morning, a frontal
zone will sag southeast across the area as a couple of sfc waves
move along it. Surface high pressure will begin to nose into
eastern KY late Saturday evening into Saturday night even though
another cold front will begin to approach late. Chances for
showers will linger ahead to the boundary on Saturday morning,
especially in the more southern locations with a thunderstorm
also possible around dawn near the VA border though those chances
will also diminish quickly on Saturday. Temperatures will be near
normal in the north and a few degrees above normal in the south
for Saturday. Lows Saturday night, although milder than normal,
will be colder than recent nights, especially for locations south
of the Mtn Parkway.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 537 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

The beginning of the long term forecast period is marked by a brief
return to drier weather, although the overarching pattern looks to
remain active next week. On Sunday, a post frontal high pressure
system will propagate east across the forecast area as ridging
slowly builds in aloft by Monday. Thus, drier weather and sunnier
skies are expected towards the beginning of the period. Sunday`s
temperatures look slightly cooler than Monday`s, largely due to the
continued advection of a continental airmass into the region via
west-northwesterly flow. Expect highs in the upper 50s/near 60 on
Sunday before modest amounts of warm/moist air advection begin aloft
late on Sunday night. Guidance collectively resolves increasing
high/mid level clouds around this time frame, so the more prominent
ridge/valley low temperature splits were limited to the shadier
valleys of NE KY. There, a few of the conventional cold spots could
approach freezing, but Sunday night`s MinTs are generally in the mid
to upper 30s. After sunrise, veering surface winds and midlevel
height rises favor widespread afternoon highs above 60 degrees. The
ridge axis should be directly overhead by Monday afternoon, setting
the stage for a return to active weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rain chances are forecast to increase on Monday night as a mid-level
shortwave trough ejects out of the Great Plains and into the Upper
Midwest. A related warm front will lift north into the forecast area
as this ejection occurs, although the deamplification of the initial
wave will lead to it stalling out in our vicinity on Tuesday. This
leads to a rather wet and mild sensible weather forecast on Tuesday,
with AM lows in the upper 40s, PM highs in the mid 60s, and
widespread rain chances. A second midlevel disturbance will dig into
the Northern Plains on Wednesday, and this one is likely to evolve
into a vertically-stacked closed low. Guidance disagrees on the
exact positioning and magnitude of this feature, but agrees that a
deeper longwave troughing pattern will emerge over much of the
Eastern CONUS for Wednesday and beyond. This signals the potential
for a stronger cold front to sweep through the Commonwealth on
Wednesday, although the exact timing of this remains uncertain. This
leads to some uncertainty in Wednesday`s forecast highs, but ahead
of the boundary, widespread rain chances will persist. A few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out given the frontal forcing, but s
severe weather remains highly unlikely. The currently-available
model soundings are unimpressive, and the (marginally) better LREF
joint probabilities for favorable instability/shear parameters are
confined to the south in the Gulf Coast states.

Once the cold front passes through, colder -- and drier -- air will
advect into the forecast area. The NBM continues to try to paint
some type of winter precipitation in the grids late on Wednesday
night as temperatures drop, but this appears to be more of a grid
artifact than a true meteorological possibility. Cyclonic flow will
remain in the mid/upper levels in this time frame, but at the
surface, a post frontal-high will be nudging its way in. Thus,
Thanksgiving looks to be a seasonably cool and mostly clear day in
Eastern Kentucky. Much of the area is poised to wake up to
temperatures near/below freezing on Thursday morning, but afternoon
highs should warm to the mid 40s. These cooler conditions will
continue into Friday, when some forecast guidance resolves a clipper-
type system moving into the Greater Ohio River Valley. Eastern
Kentucky currently looks to be on the warmer side of that system,
with limited amounts of available atmospheric moisture. Thus,
widespread wintery precipitation appears unlikely at any point in
this particular long term forecast package. The extended-range
guidance has actually trended milder for the end of November and the
very beginning of December here in the Commonwealth. The CPC`s
latest 8-14 day temperature and hazards outlooks have been adjusted
accordingly, and there is no longer a risk for heavy snow across any
part of Kentucky in this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025

Extreme variability, both spatially and temporally, existed around
TAF issuance time. Conditions ranged between VLIFR and VFR.
Although it`s not a desirable forecast, high variability has been
used initially in some TAFs to reflect what is actually going on.
By late this evening and through the overnight, forecasts trend
toward more consistency of poorer conditions. This consists of
largely IFR or worse for most places, except for some MVFR mixed
in mainly over the southern portion of the forecast area. Showers
will be prevalent through tonight, with a small potential for a
few thunderstorms as well.

The significant precipitation will taper off overnight and early
Saturday, eventually followed by modest improvement in conditions
to MVFR for most of the area during the day on Saturday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL