511
FXUS63 KJKL 181112
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
712 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will become locally dense in the valleys overnight.

- Following minimal rain chances Monday and Tuesday, chances will
  increase midweek then linger into the weekend.

- Expect temperatures to return to near normal by midweek, with
  even cooler temperatures in store this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025

Some radiation fog has developed across southern portions of the
JKL CWA, but most of the surface obs elsewhere are VFR. The heat
today will be a bit more tolerable, with most locations across
eastern Kentucky expected to reach heat index values in the low to
mid 90s this afternoon. So that`s an improvement. No forecast
changes are planned for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025

Following yesterday`s convective development over southeast
Kentucky, PoPs have dropped to nothing. A surface ridge is in the
process of building into the region from the west, and an upper
high centered near the Ozarks is also producing ridging aloft. So
widespread subsidence should keep a lid on any convection today
and tonight, and only isolated convection is in tomorrow`s
forecast, mainly for the higher elevations along the KY/VA
border. Afternoon temperatures today should top out in the upper
80s to low 90s across eastern Kentucky, with heat index values
only slightly greater than ambient temperatures owing to lower dew
points. Tomorrow, temperatures will be slightly warmer, but heat
indices should still remain below 100F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025

High pressure will lose its influence by Wednesday as the upper
high retreats westward and the upper flow becomes much less
amplified. At the surface, ridging will be replaced by a trough of
low pressure across the Commonwealth that will show little
movement until this weekend, when it will finally push southward
and be replaced by another ridge of high pressure. Rain and storm
chances will therefore return to all of eastern Kentucky on
Wednesday, with lesser PoPs on Thursday and Friday, then better
rain chances on Saturday as the aforementioned surface boundary
begins its exit, then diminishing rain chances thereafter.
Temperatures will cool off somewhat beginning on Thursday, with
the cooling trend accelerating by Sunday. The air mass that fills
in starting next week will feel almost autumn-like, and will
surely be a welcome reprieve from the summer heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025

A much more stable air mass has settled over eastern Kentucky
today. Radiation fog hasn`t been much of an issue this morning
and doesn`t appear to be too impactful tomorrow morning, as well.
So the TAFs are mostly VFR with light/calm winds.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE