803
FXUS63 KJKL 102125 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
525 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry weather pattern with mostly sunny days and mainly clear
  nights will persist through the weekend and into next week.

- Temperatures will gradually warm up to slightly above normal
  values early next week, with highs approaching the upper 70s on
  Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025

Eastern Kentucky is basking under bright mid-October afternoon
sunshine at mid-afternoon. After a chilly morning with
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid-40s, temperatures have
surged into the upper 60s to low 70s across the lower elevations.
The latest surface analysis shows the surface high responsible for
our cool but pleasant weather is now centered off Long Island.
Behind it, an ~1012 mb surface low is situated north of Lake
Superior, with an associated cold front trailing southwest through
the Upper Peninsula of Michigan/Wisconsin to southern Kansas.
Southerly flow between the departing high and approaching cool
front is ushering higher low-level moisture levels this
afternoon -- dew points have climbed into the upper 40s to mid
50s across much of the area. Aloft, 500 hPa ridging remains
prominent over the High Plains, but to its east, a potent northern
stream shortwave is closing off into a low over the Great Lakes
as ridging over the Northeastern CONUS breaks down. It is also
worth noting that a very weak cyclonic circulation exists in the
upper levels near/over Georgia.

Through the short term, the 500 hPa ridge axis over the High
Plains will shift east and tilt positively, while the upper low
over the Great Lakes weakens and settles over New York, beginning
to interact with the energy over the Southeast US. As a result,
the surface cold front will drop southeast into the Lower Ohio
Valley and dissipate. Despite the renewed low-level moisture,
dry northerly flow in the mid to upper levels will keep PWATs
generally less than 0.75 inches. As a result, little more than
some patchy clouds are expected at times through the period. Fog
formation is also likely each night under a favorable radiational
cooling environment.

In terms of sensible weather, temperatures will peak in the low
to mid-70s this afternoon under fair skies. Temperatures will drop
quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating; however,
higher dew points will provide a floor for overnight lows, which
will range from the mid-40s in sheltered valleys to the low 50s
on thermal belt ridges. Fog, locally dense, can be expected in the
favored valley locales. Looking ahead to Saturday, tranquil
weather will continue with high temperatures once again returning
to the lower to middle 70s under mostly sunny skies. Looking ahead
to Saturday night, clear to partly cloudy skies persist with lows
once again in the mid 40s to low 50s. Fog formation is once again
probable in the most favored valley locales, though a slightly
stronger gradient flow should keep coverage more limited compared
to Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 523 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Confidence is high that seasonably dry and pleasant conditions will
persist across Eastern Kentucky through the end of the long term
forecast period. The forecast guidance suite agrees that much of
this time frame will be dominated by atmospheric ridging and
northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, the region
will be situated between an Atlantic coastal low and building high
pressure. A cold front may approach the area by mid-week, but it is
likely to lack mid/upper level dynamic support. Guidance resolves
its parent features quickly ejecting up into Canada by Wednesday,
leaving the the cold front with only weak forcing upon approach.
Persistent north-northeasterly surface flow in the first part of the
period will keep this frontal passage dry, and its sensible weather
impacts will be accordingly limited to a minor cooldown.

Given the aforementioned model consensus, the baseline NBM data used
to populate the long term forecast grids appears reasonable. The
synoptic-scale ridging at play favors mostly clear skies, an early
week warming trend, and efficient diurnal processes. On Sunday, a
few clouds may stream around the extreme western periphery of the
coastal system into Eastern Kentucky, but increasing subsidence and
dry northerly flow ahead of the building midlevel ridge should
prohibit precipitation chances. Skies should clear out early on in
the work week, allowing for strong diurnal warming/cooling. Expect
highs to creep up from the mid 70s on Sunday towards the upper 70s
on Tuesday, with overnight lows dependent upon elevation. The cooler
valleys will stay in the 40s, with warmer ridgetops in the low 50s.
Radiational valley fog remains likely to develop each night, but the
persistent dryness may progressively reduce the spatial coverage of
the fog by late next week. In the wake of the dry midweek frontal
passage, high temperatures should cool into the upper 60s, with
widespread lows in the 40s.

These conditions are near climatological averages for mid-October in
Eastern Kentucky, and October is known as the dry season here.
Looking into the extended forecast period, it is plausible that
Eastern Kentucky will not see measurable rain through the end of the
next work week. This will lead to drying soils and increasing fuels
with little to no relief in sight. While the past week`s rainfall
provided some relief, fire weather interests are encouraged to pay
close attention to local burn guidance and to check future fire
weather forecast updates as this drier pattern emerges.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025

VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites at 18Z issuance and
should generally continue through the TAF period, as high pressure
departs. However, increasing moisture return ahead of an
approaching weak cold front will support more extensive fog
formation and the possibility of IFR or possibly worse conditions
at the terminals late tonight. Additionally, there will be a few
mid and high level clouds at times. Southerly winds around 5 kts
or less this afternoon will be come light and variable tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON