536
FXUS63 KJKL 300808
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
408 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be persistent showers around, at times, until a cold
  front passes through on Tuesday night.

- Dry weather arrives behind the cold front for Wednesday and
  then lasts through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2024

The fog seems to be in and out of the observation sites early
this morning as the thickness of the clouds vary overhead, but
many sites have been reporting a quarter of a mile visibility, at
times. For this reason, have joined many of the neighbors and
issued an SPS for locally dense patches through the start of the
day for the entire CWA. Will continue to monitor for a potential
advisory. Otherwise, have mainly just updated the T/Td/Sky/PoP
grids for the trends in the obs and CAMs. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 905 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2024

A few showers remain over the Big Sandy Valley with additional
showers north and west of the region as an upper low meanders over
the area. Clouds remain across the region, with some breaks in the
low and mid clouds in spots. The main concern overnight is the
eventual degree of clearing or at least clearing of low and mid
clouds which will determine the areal extent of fog overnight to
early on Monday. Confidence in clearing or times of clearing remains
low though some guidance suggests at least periods where low and
mid clouds scatter out. Cloud cover and fog potential will
continue to be monitored. A general forecast of patchy fog to
areas of fog was used for the overnight at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2024

The persistent low pressure system bringing us clouds and rain in
the wake of Helene`s remnants still lingers. The surface system
has practically dissipated, but a weakening mid/upper level
closed low remains centered over KY. Clouds have limited our
heating and destabilization, but there`s been enough for small,
spotty showers to regenerate this afternoon. A slow decline in
activity is expected this evening, but the potential probably
won`t completely go away tonight.

With the upper low continuing to weaken, it will further open up
and get absorbed back into progressive flow aloft, especially as a
potent trough approaches the Great Lakes from the west northwest
on Monday and Monday night. However, before it leaves, it looks
like limited warming will cause another uptick in showers over our
area on the west side of the low on Monday, and mainly 40-60% POP
has been used. The POP drops off considerably on Monday night as
heating is lost and the low departs further to the east.

Thunder has been kept out of the short term forecast. Although
convection will occur, forecast soundings in both the NAM and GFS
suggest it will remain capped in the mid levels, with the top of
the convection remaining warmer than -20C.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2024

The residents of eastern Kentucky will see a brief period of rain to
begin the extended, as a cold front and upper level trough move
through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rain will start
off fairly widespread Tuesday night, but will gradually but steadily
taper off across the area as the front moves to the east overnight.
The last few showers should be out of the area by mid-morning on
Wednesday. The lack of instability will make it very difficult for
any storms to form, so thunder was left out of the forecast for now.
Once the front has moved away, a large ridge of Canadian high
pressure will move in behind the front and settle over the region.
The ridge will bring mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry
weather to the area through the end of the week and into the
weekend. Several forecast models support this scenario in general,
with a few timing differences here and there. With ridging overhead,
conditions will prime for modest ridge valley temperature
differences and late night and early morning valley fog. Daily highs
should be in the 70s for most locations, with lower 80s possible on
Friday, after the air mass has modified for a few days. The latest
run of the NBM has another weather system approaching from the
northwest Sunday night, which could bring a few showers back into
the area to finish out the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2024

A mixture of aviation conditions were reported across the area at
issuance time. A few stray showers will continue to diminish
through eastern Kentucky over the next couple of hours. As
temperatures cool and dewpoint depressions shrink, lower
clouds/stratus build down fog should continue to lead to lowering
ceilings and/or visibilities into the 08 and 09Z timeframe. Any
clearing out of low and mid clouds would lead to fog developing,
as well. Some of this will likely result in IFR or lower vis and
or ceilings with a general improvement back toward VFR during the
12Z to 15Z period. Light and variable winds are expected to hold
through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP/GREIF