876
FXUS63 KJKL 132026
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
426 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather continues across eastern
  Kentucky through the work week.

- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for the duration of the forecast period.

- While confidence in specific details remains low, the next
  chance of showers/storms will come next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 420 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level low was located across the mid
Atlantic states and mid Atlantic coast while the axis of an upper
level ridge was centered over eastern TX northeast to the mid MS
Valley to Lower OH Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level low was
located southwest of Hudson Bay. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure that extended from the Lower to Middle OH Valley. Cumulus
has developed across the region during the heating of the day.

This evening through Tuesday, the upper level low and associated
trough in Canada is expected to progress east and northeast
across Hudson Bay and James Bay to Quebec while the upper level
low in the mid Atlantic states moves into the Atlantic and upper
level ridging remains centered over TX/Southern Plains with the
center of the ridge moving closer to the Arklatex region and
strengthens and there is a gradual trend of height rises into the
OH Valley and Southern to Central Appalachians.

The pattern will favor another night with colder temperatures in
the valleys and an associated nocturnal inversion leading to a
moderate/ridge valley split of low to mid 40s in the more
sheltered rural valleys and low 50s on the coalfield ridges. Light
winds and clear skies will also favor fog developing around or
just after midnight and this may become dense in the typically
favored locations along the larger creeks, rivers, and area lakes.
The fog should gradually lift and dissipate through about 10 AM on
Tuesday and some fair weather cumulus possibly developing. Some
stratus development overnight is also a possibility in the
southeast nearer to the VA border and Big Sandy region as
suggested by some of the guidance. This could linger a bit longer
into the morning on Tuesday and result in somewhat suppressed high
temperatures there.

For Tuesday night, upper level ridging is expected to remain
centered in the Arklatex vicinity, but height falls are progged
from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and mid Atlantic states and
into the OH Valley region south of troughing in eastern Canada
into the Northeast. Sf high pressure should build into the Great
Lakes at that point and send a moisture starved cold front south
across the Great Lakes region. This cold front should begin to sag
toward the OH Valley to end the period. Despite the approach of
the front, cloud cover on Tuesday night is expected to be minimal
and another small to moderate ridge/valley temperatures split is
anticipated along with valley fog in the typically favored
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025

Models and ensembles continue to be in good agreement over a ridge
of high pressure remaining over Kentucky through the end of the
workweek. This will lead to mostly sunny skies, and temperatures
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s during the afternoons,
dropping into the low to mid-40s at night.

Friday, the ridge of high pressure thats been over the area for the
last few days, begins to progress eastward. This will allow for a
wind shift previously from the northeast, to the southwest during
the afternoon. Warmer air will advect into the region, leading to
temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s during the afternoon.
With added cloud cover anticipated, temperatures cool into the 50s.

A pattern change, and the next good chance at rain looks to occur
next weekend, as a low pressure system will mature and occlude over
the Midwest during the day Friday. With the occluded head located
over the ND/MN area, and its trailing cold front extending further
south down into Texas. This cold front is set to push across the
Mississippi Valley during the day Saturday, with its arrival into
Eastern Kentucky Saturday evening through Sunday. With WAA occurring
through Saturday, look for temperatures to warm into the upper 70s,
and low 80s. A breezy Sunday can be expected as the area will be on
the back end of the low pressure, with a tightening pressure
gradient over the region. Ensemble spread and uncertainty begins to
increase Sunday and beyond with the exiting low, however a return
to dry weather looks to be favored on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025

Some cumulus with bases between 3.5 and 6kft agl have developed
as we approach peak heating. These should linger for the first few
hours of the period, but dissipate toward sunset. With high
pressure dominating, valley fog should again develop after about
04Z and dissipate toward 14Z. At this time, confidence in any of
the TAF sites being affected was too low to include at this time.
Other than the potential for fog later in the period, VFR should
prevail. Winds average between northeast and north to begin the
period at less than 10KT, and then become light and variable
around sunset, before picking back up from the north to northeast
at less than 10KT to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP