805
FXUS63 KJKL 302117
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
517 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions will persist through Tuesday.

- Greater coverage of precip is forecast for Tuesday ahead of a
  cold front.

- Dry weather and somewhat lower humidity will arrive for mid-
  late week.

- Daily high temperatures climb back above 90 degrees for most
  locations by Friday/Saturday and continue into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 351 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025

A progressive upper trough is located over the Midwest late today,
with an associated surface cold front from Lake Michigan southwest
to KS. A sultry air mass remains in place over our area ahead of
the front. Geopotential heights are falling as the trough
approaches, further enabling convective development with diurnal
heating today. Convection will last into the evening, but is
expected to decrease with loss of heating. However, the threat
will persist to some extent during the night as the system
approaches. The upper trough and front will both pass through the
region on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Models are now more
strongly suggesting diurnal development on Tuesday for more of the
area, and lasting into Tuesday evening in our southeast counties.

The extent of clouds and lack of significant shear will limit the
potential for strong convection on Tuesday. However, precipitable
water is expected to be near 2", and with fairly weak
unidirectional shear, locally heavy rainfall may result from any
training of cells which occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 517 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025

The 30/12z model suite analysis beginning Wednesday morning shows
a lingering 500H trough axis over eastern Canada to along the
eastern side of the Southern Appalachians. An upper level ridge
extends from the western Gulf of America northwestward into in
the Northwest Territories. At the surface, an ~1018 mb high
pressure is situated over the Ozarks, spreading its influence
across the Commonwealth, while the departing cold front will be
east of Appalachian Mountains. Northwest low-level flow will be
ushering a slightly drier and cooler air mass into eastern
Kentucky.

The model guidance is in good agreement showing the upper level
trough gradually lifting northeast as the ridge expands east. By
Sunday, some weakness may begin to develop as the ridge`s
associated surface high scoots to the east side of the
Southern/Central Appalachians. Initially, a dry west northwest
flow will keep dew points tolerable through July 4th, though
temperatures will warm a few degrees each day. By Saturday though,
the low-level flow will become more southerly sending an
increasingly muggy air mass back across eastern Kentucky. (PWATs
climb back above 1.5 inches by Sunday and continuing to moisten
early next week.) That will spell the return of showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast by the latter half of the holiday
weekend.

In sensible terms, look for a more dry and more comfortable day on
Wednesday with moderate humidity levels and high temperatures in the
middle 80s under abundant sunshine. The mostly sunny days continue
from Thursday right through Saturday while nighttime will see
clear to partly cloudy skies. Fog is likely each night, most
widespread Wednesday morning before gradually diminishing with
each day of drying. Temperatures will be on the rise through the
end of the week as well with daily highs back in the low to mid
90s by Saturday and Sunday. A small but slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms also returns to the forecast by Sunday with
higher chances for Monday. The Independence Day forecast is dry
with a cool start in the mid 60s followed by a hot and sunny
afternoon with highs of 89-94F. Temperatures return to the mid and
upper 60s Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025

Largely VFR conditions were present at TAF issuance, but there
were some small areas with MVFR ceilings, and also scattered
showers/thunderstorms developing. Although any ceilings in
general will rise this afternoon, the showers/thunderstorms will
further increase in coverage, likely peaking in the late
afternoon. They will bring localized IFR or worse conditions. A
general decrease in precip is forecast this evening, but the
potential does not completely go away.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL