015
FXUS63 KJKL 152112
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
512 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm/hot temperatures and high dew points will persist for the
  next week, resulting in sultry conditions.

- There will be a daily potential for showers/thunderstorms over
  the next week, especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

- Thunderstorms over the next several days could produce locally
  heavy rainfall at times, potentially leading to a few instances
  of high water or flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon, and
roughly extends along the I-75 corridor and west. These showers and
storms are expected to progress east through the afternoon, as a 500-
mb vort maxima is helping in supporting these. These scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms should taper off in
coverage and intensity heading into the early evening. Winds will be
light and variable at the surface overnight, however winds will
remain elevated further aloft. This may mitigate the coverage and
intensity of river valley fog development tonight, compared to
previous nights. Places within river valleys that do receive
rainfall this afternoon may have slightly better chances of fog
development overnight than those that don`t. Temperatures tonight
will generally remain in the low 70s.

Wednesday, a second shortwave passes through the Ohio Valley
bringing with it another 500-mb vorticity maxima, advancing through
Kentucky. This maxima will help kick-off another round of convection
tomorrow, as early as 15Z in some model solutions. Showers will be
scattered to numerous with isolated thunderstorms. Any training or
slow moving storms do have the potential to produce locally heavy
rain rates with PWAT hovering around 2 inches. Heading into the
early evening showers and storms will begin to taper off from west
to east, although shower activity may linger across the Cumberland
Plateau. Daytime temperatures will likely range from the upper 80s to
low 90s with night-time lows in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025

The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered
between the Bahamas and Bermuda and extending into the Southeast
Conus and northern sections of the Gulf states to TX while the
potential tropical system is expected to be near the LA coast in
north central to northwestern sections of the Gulf at that point.
Also as the period starts a general area of broad troughing
should extend from near Hudson Bay into sections of the Conus
from the Great lakes west to the Northwest. Several waves in the
westerly flow between the ridging to the south and troughing in
Canada are expected to be moving from the Central Conus into the
eastern Conus at that time. One notable shortwave should extend
from Ontario to the western Great Lakes as the period beings with
another in parts of the Central Plains and another upstream of
that from Alberta into the Northwest Conus. At the surface, a
ridge of high pressure is expected to be centered over the
Southern Appalachians with another ridge in the northern Plains
and a frontal zone in between these extending from the Maritimes
to sections of the St Lawrence Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity
to mid MS Valley to portions of the Plains and then north near the
front range. Meanwhile, the potential tropical system in the Gulf
should be near the mouth of the MS or nearby sections of the Gulf
at that time.

From Thursday to Friday night, the first shortwave should pass
across the Great Lakes and generally north and northwest of
eastern KY on Thursday while the next shortwave/shortwaves in
westerly flow are progged to approach from the west later
Thursday and move across the OH valley Thursday night into Friday.
This will occur as an upper low in Canada rotates east and into
northern sections of Quebec with the broad upper troughing
shifting east with the axis of this extending into the Great
Lakes by late Friday night. At the same time, upper level ridging
is expected to build into sections of the Southeastern Conus
while the mid and upper level portions of the potential tropical
system drifts west and northwest toward the Arklatex
region/eastern TX. Some of the associated tropical moisture
should move north into the Lower MS Valley while rather deep
moisture is expected to remain across the OH Valley, with PW
locally across eastern KY on the order of 1.7 to 2 inches during
this timeframe per the 00Z LREF mean. This rather high PW will be
near and south of the frontal zone initially north and northwest
of OH that is expected to sag south toward and potentially into
eastern KY from Thursday into Friday and Friday night as the
trough moves into the Great Lakes. Showers and storms are expected
at times from Thursday into Friday night, with a diurnal peak
each day. Some of the ENS based AI convective guidance from 00Z
has a wind threat signature both days, strongest on Thursday
indicative of at least some threat for wet microbursts. The high
moisture content in the column and potential for multiple rounds
of convection as the frontal zone becomes near parallel to the
upper flow raises a concern for heavy rain the potential for high
water and flash flooding. This concern may peak on Friday per
recent WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks.

Saturday to Sunday night, the center of upper level ridging is
progged to gradually shift from the Southeast Conus toward the
Gulf and Southern Plains and weaken yet generally remain from
near the Bahamas west across Southern portions of the Conus to end
the weekend. Meanwhile, the rather broad troughing from Canada
into northern sections of the Conus should remain to the north
with westerlies across the Northern to Northeastern sections of
the Conus over the weekend and southern portions of Canada.
Multiple shortwaves are progged to move through this flow with one
or more passing through the Great Lakes and OH Valley to begin
the weekend while the remnants of the tropical system are progged
to weaken as they drift north from eastern TX toward Ark and OK.
Another shortwave may track across the Great Lakes for Sunday
and into the Northeast by Sunday night. Plenty of moisture should
remain in place across the Southern Plains and MS Valley into the
OH and TN Valley region during this period. A sfc wave passing
along a frontal zone that initially should extend from the mid
Atlantic sates to the OH Valley to Central Plains to MT should
track to the Great Lakes from Saturday into Saturday night with
the frontal zone lifting north of eastern KY to begin the weekend.
This low should move into the Northeast to Maritimes to end the
weekend with the frontal zone again likely sagging into the OH
River Valley late Sunday night. Showers and storms will remain
possible during that time as well and with the frontal becoming
nearly parallel to the upper flow combined with rather abundant
moisture, locally heavy rain will remain a concern with periodic
rounds of showers and storms that likely peak in coverage on Sat
and Sun afternoons.

Monday to Tuesday, upper troughing is progged to remain across
southern sections of the Conus and perhaps strengthen over the
Southeast to end the period. Further north rather broad troughing
is forecast over Central to western portions of Canada with the
stronger westerlies nearer to the US/Canadian border. Multiple
shortwaves should continue to cross northern sections of the
Conus to begin next week with a tendency for the frontal zone
initially nearer to the OH river to lift north to the mid
Atlantic/Northeast/ Great Lakes as a sfc low pressure system
tracks toward Ontario. A sfc ridge of high pressure should
generally remain from the eastern Gulf to the Southern Plains.
Convection will remain possible early next week as well with a
general diurnal peak in coverage. The threat for locally heavy
rain, typical of this time of year, should linger into the first
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025

Showers and storms have redeveloped early this afternoon;
therefore, opted to have PROB 30s for each of the sites. Showers
and storms will dissipate toward sunset and some patchy river
valley FG is expected tonight, although perhaps not as widespread
as is the case this morning. This is contingent on if TAF sites
get rain this afternoon. Modeled winds aloft are much stronger
than previous nights so a stratus deck would be more favored
rather than FG. Winds are forecast to be light and variable
through the period. Lastly, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to redevelop Wednesday anytime after 15Z, so some PROB 30s have
been reintroduced toward the tail end of the TAF period for JKL,
SME, and SYM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GINNICK