772
FXUS63 KJKL 160149 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
945 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather continues across eastern
  Kentucky through the work week.

- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for the duration of the forecast period.

- While confidence in specific details remains low, the next
  chance of showers/storms will come this weekend.

- The probability for breezy to gusty winds Sunday is increasing
  with a 10 to 30 percent chance of seeing gusts of 40 mph at the
  surface.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025

Sky grids continue to be the most problematic to update as models
are not handling the stratus deck moving south into the area all
that well. Thicker stratus remains just to the north, but it does
appear to be dissipating and/or thinning somewhat as it moves across
northeastern Kentucky. The cloud cover increases the uncertainty
with the low temperature forecast for the rest of tonight, as this
would prevent temperatures from dropping all the way down into the
lower 40s in the more sheltered valleys.


.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025

Updated Sky grids to account for the incoming stratus deck from
the north. Also refreshed hourly T/Td grids using the latest
hourly observations as the initialization for the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025

After extensive valley fog this morning, sunny skies prevail for
most locations at mid-afternoon, with temperatures having risen
into the low to mid-70s, making for another delightful mid-October
afternoon. A bit more mid-level cloud cover is noted north of the
Mountain Parkway due to a diffuse, remnant cold front sagging
southward. Overall, surface high pressurewith a 1027 mb center
along the Minnesota-Ontario borderremains in firm control of our
weather, keeping a weak northerly flow across the region. Aloft,
500 hPa ridging is still firmly in place over the heart of the
nation, with a ridge axis stretching from the Texas Gulf Coast
northward into Manitoba. At 500 hPa, vorticity energy is
propagating down the eastern side of the ridge axis while a trough
digs over New England and the Atlantic Provinces.

As the trough intensifies near/over the Canadian Maritime Provinces,
weak height falls will occur over the Lower Ohio Valley through
tonight, attending the passage of the aforementioned dry cold
front. Through the remainder of the period, the 500 hPa ridge axis
will slowly shift to east of the Mississippi River valley and the
associated surface high will shift east into Quebec, allowing for
winds to veer more southeasterly by Thursday night. Dry air
wrapping clockwise around the surface high will seep in behind
the cold front tonight and Thursday, with the driest air overhead
Thursday night. Dew points are in the 50-55 degrees F range this
afternoon, but behind the boundary, they should fall closer to
40 degrees F on Thursday, with some locations possibly reaching
the upper 30s. This could be low enough to allow for some patchy
frost in the coldest sheltered valleys late Thursday night and
early Friday morning.

In terms of sensible weather, patchy mid-level cloud cover is
expected through tonight. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to
dip into the 40s areawide by daybreak Thursday morning. Some fog
is possible, primarily in the more sheltered river valleys. On
Thursday, it will be modestly cooler with a drying northeast
breeze under mostly sunny skies. High temperatures are expected to
range from the mid-60s to low 70s, coolest northeast to warmest
southwest. Chillier temperatures follow for Thursday night with
lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s, though a few mid 30s are
possible in the coldest hollows where a touch of patchy frost
cannot be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 433 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025

A ridge of high pressure remains over Kentucky through Friday. Skies
will start out partly cloudy, increasing to mostly cloudy conditions
throughout the day. Temperatures will likely range from the low 70s
north and east of Jackson, and mid to upper 70s south and west of
the city. Winds remain fairly light out of the east. Friday night,
warmer air continues to advect into the area, with model soundings
and moisture profiles suggesting high clouds. Temperatures cool into
the low to mid 50s, with valleys dipping into the upper 40s. If
clearing begins a bit earlier in the night, valleys could drop a
little colder.

Saturday, the area will remain under southwesterly flow ahead of an
approaching trough from the west. The probability of showers
increase through the day as a system continues its progression
through the state. While specifics are still hard to pin down, this
system is progressive enough where significant hydrologic issues are
not anticipated, even with heavier rainfall. Showers will increase
in coverage through the night and continue through the day Sunday.
There remains a low chance ( less than 15 percent chance) of a
thunderstorm with this event, so mention of them has been left out
of messaging and the forecast at this time. Model soundings show
a layer of dry air at mid-levels and CAPE not exceeding 500 J/kg,
both of which are not favorable for sustaining thunderstorms.
Rainfall totals through Sunday have trended down some with the
greatest amount along the I-75 corridor up into the Bluegrass area
seeing around 1 inch. Locally higher amounts are possible. With
warm air continuing to advect into the region ahead of the frontal
passage, temperatures will warm into the low 80s. At night, with
rainfall continuing and overcast skies, temperatures will dip into
the upper 50s to low 60s.

Sunday, showers continue, tapering off overnight, heading into
Monday. Temperatures will struggle to reach 70, with rainy and
breezy conditions. In fact, signals are beginning to increase of an
anomalous wind event for the area. Models depict a 110-130 kt jet
streak passing through the area Sunday morning. With ongoing rain,
some of this wind aloft may mix down to the surface. Looking at the
EFI for the area, the ECMWF is showing an wind speed and gusts for
the area around the 85th percentile. The 00Z run of the LREF
Grand Ensemble, shows a 10-20 percent chance of seeing sustained
winds greater or equal to 20 mph, while a 10-30 percent chance
remains for seeing wind gusts greater or equal to 40 mph at the
surface. Winds are expected to diminish Sunday evening, and with
skies also clearing through the night, valleys are expected to
decouple heading into the evening. Low temperatures could range
from the upper 30s in the valleys to the low to mid 40s along
ridgetops. Sunday night, valley fog will likely develop as a
result of the light winds, clearing skies, and the most recent
rainfall.

Monday, a ridge of high pressure briefly builds back into the
region, but that appears to be short lived as a Baja low ejects into
the Central Plains while a large scale trough descends into the
Intermountain West. By the time Tuesday and Wednesday get around the
two systems phase into a model depicted low across the Upper Great
Lakes and cold front through the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, to
the Gulf coast. As for temperatures, Monday, mid to upper 60s are
likely. With WAA occurring at night, ridge tops will likely stay
elevated leading to lows in the lower 40s in the valleys and mid to
upper 40s along ridge tops. Valley fog is also expected to develop
Monday night. Tuesday and Wednesday, model spread is greater with
the uncertainty of the a mid-week system, but in general, upper 60s
to low 70s during the day with lows in the mid 40s can be
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025

VFR conditions were prevailing at TAF issuance and are expected
to generally continue through the period. The only possible
exceptions are tonight in the sheltered river valleys where
limited fog formation is likely, and again with a patchy low-VFR
stratus deck moving south over the area before dissipating toward
11z-14z Thursday. Winds will be variable to northeasterly at less
than 10 kts through the period.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC/GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC