Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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519 FXUS63 KJKL 061424 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1024 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A passing cold front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly eastern parts of the area this evening and into the night. - Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees above normal again today before typical autumn-like readings arrive on Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1024 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2024 The only lingering fog and low clouds are over portions of Bell and Harlan counties. This should be gone within an hour or two, and the forecast has been updated to reflect this. UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2024 No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2024 07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to pull away from the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The high has been enough to keep skies mostly clear this night and allow for good radiational cooling resulting in a decent ridge to valley temperature split. Specifically, readings range from near 50 degrees in some of the sheltered valleys to the lower 60s on the ridges. Meanwhile, amid light to calm winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 50s across the JKL CWA. Some fog has shown up in the river valleys, per obs and satellite, and has likely become locally dense. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a sharp trough brushing by to the north of Kentucky tonight as its core swings east through the eastern Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. This will mean healthy 5h height falls for eastern Kentucky this evening and overnight with the best mid level energy passing just after midnight. Heights will then start to rebound on Monday in relatively weak northwest flow. The small model spread warranted using the NBM solution as the starting point for the grids with some minor adjustments mainly involving PoPs this evening per input from the latest high resolution CAMs. Sensible weather features one last very warm day, once the valley fog clears, ahead of a cold front moving in during the evening from northwest to southeast. This boundary looks to take advantage of some instability, acting as a lifting mechanism, to probably create a band of showers and a few thunderstorms passing through eastern Kentucky. The convection is modeled to be more intense just east of the state with better upper support but a strong storm cannot be ruled out around sunset in the eastern part of the CWA if the parameters come together. This boundary and the pcpn moves steadily through the area into the early overnight hours. This front also brings a change in air mass to the area with temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees colder in its wake and dry weather follows through most of the upcoming week. The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of adjusting details of the PoPs this evening and into the night per the latest CAMs solutions. Also, tweaked temperatures this morning to account for more terrain distinction. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2024 The forecast period begins with surface high pressure nudging into the region from the Central Plains. Aloft, northwesterly flow will aid in bringing post-frontal CAA to the Commonwealth. This forecast CAA will usher in more fall-like temperatures through much of the forecast period. Highs will climb into the upper-60s to low-70s every day with overnight lows falling into the low to mid-40s with even colder temperatures in the sheltered valleys. Ensemble probabilities suggest that a few sheltered valleys my fall into the mid to upper-30s Thursday night and again Friday. Attention turns away from the forecast area briefly as NHC has another named tropical storm on its hands. Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche and will track east-northeast into the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Florida on Wednesday. The strong upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will ensure Milton stays away from the Commonwealth; however, cloud cover and easterly winds associated with Milton are expected during the day Thursday. As mentioned above, high pressure will remain stationary over much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the end of the period but a cold front may bring an end to the dry weather Sunday into Monday. Overall, a deterministic forecast of high pressure will exist through the period which will keep the forecast area dry and experiencing October-like weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2024 VFR will prevail throughout the period. The lone exception will be fog in the valleys through 14Z. High pressure will also be moving east during the period as a cold front beings to approach the area. A passing cold front brings a chance for a shower or storm later this evening with the KSYM and KSJS seeing the best chance for any effects. Even so, any impacts are expected to be fleeting. Winds will be light south to southwest this morning on ridges and in more open terrain, then southwest at 5 to 10 kts after the nocturnal inversion mixes out around 15Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL/GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GREIF