795
FXUS63 KJKL 120044 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
844 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather is expected to continue for
  the next seven days in Eastern KY.

- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for much of the upcoming week.

- While confidence in specific details is low, the next chance of
  rain will likely come next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025

Hourly temperatures were adjusted based on recent observation
trends. This led to a bit quicker drop in temperatures for the
more sheltered valleys that area in the mid 50s. The longer
shadows resulting from lower sun angles this time of year
contributed to some valley locations decoupling as much as an
hour or more prior to sunset. Fog along the larger creeks,
rivers, and lakes potentially becoming dense is the main weather
concern overnight to early on Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025

Mostly sunny skies prevail across the Coalfields and adjacent
regions at mid-afternoon. Temperatures range from the lower to
mid-70s, and are warmest on the deep valley floors and near Lake
Cumberland. The only interruption to the sunshine is a few mid-
level clouds drifting into the I-64 corridor from the north and
a few high clouds streaming in from the southeast. The latest
analysis reveals that the clouds drifting in from the north are
associated with a decaying cold front, which in turn is associated
with a closed, ~562 dam low over the Niagara Frontier region.
Meanwhile, the upper-level moisture (cirrus streaming into eastern
KY) is associated with an ~573 dam low near Savannah, GA, and its
sub-1000 mb surface reflection offshore. Meanwhile, upper-level
ridging holds firm to the west, with a 500 hPa ridge axis
extending from Texas northeastward through the Upper Midwest and
into northern Ontario.

Through the short-term, the upper lows will circulate nearly in
place and gradually fill, while the upper-level ridge shifts
further east. This will send the decaying cold front across the
JKL CWA tonight, followed by subsequent overall weak height rises
and surface high pressure ridging over eastern Kentucky. There
will be no threat of rain with this boundary, as the region will
remain under a dry northerly flow (PWATs <0.75 inches) on the
western side of the aforementioned upper lows. For Sunday and
Sunday night, the coastal low-pressure system pivots up the
Atlantic Seaboard and occludes. A new low is then expected to
emerge from the triple point as it comes under the influence of
the northern upper low. While a vast majority of the moisture with
this system will remain well to our east, limited moisture is
expected to seep west of the Central Appalachians and could raise
PWATs to near 1.0 inch over far eastern Kentucky. This will lead
to greater mid-and high-level cloud cover, especially Sunday
evening and Sunday night. Aside from this cloud cover, radiational
fog can be expected each night in sheltered river valleys.
Low-level gradient flow will be stronger than last night and that
will limit fog development elsewhere.

In terms of sensible weather, mainly fair conditions are expected
through the period, aside from typical nighttime river valley
fog. It will be seasonable, with nighttime lows in the mid-40s in
sheltered valleys to the low to mid-50s on thermal belt ridges.
High temperatures on Sunday are expected to range in the lower to
middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 430 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The beginning of the long term forecast period continues to be
defined by atmospheric ridging and generally good agreement amongst
the available pieces of forecast guidance. A cold front is poised to
approach the forecast area by mid-week, but its impacts will likely
be limited to only a modest cool down. The pattern begins to shift
towards the end of the forecast period, but this corresponds with
increasing model spread and decreasing confidence in the extended-
range sensible weather forecast. Therefore, confidence is high that
conditions will remain on the dry side through at least Friday,
October 17th.

When the period begins on Monday morning, midlevel ridging will be
building into the greater Ohio River Valley. The influence of this
feature will increase headed into Tuesday, and the associated
subsidence and height rises point towards dry and warm sensible
weather. At the surface, the commonwealth will be positioned between
a pair of phasing coastal cyclones off the Atlantic coast and a
quickly-ejecting Canadian low. This leads to a broad area of
relatively high pressure to the west of the forecast area, which
favors persistent north-northeasterly surface flow. Together, this
pattern favors mostly clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures
for Monday and Tuesday. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s in the
first half of the work week, with overnight ridge-valley temperature
splits. While ridgetops will likely see lows in the 50-54 degrees
range, efficient radiational cooling will allow valleys to easily
cool into the 40s. This also favors the formation of overnight
river valley fog, but the persistent dryness could gradually
reduce the spatial coverage of said fog with each passing night
this week.

By mid-week, the cold front associated with the aforementioned
Canadian low is forecast to approach the Ohio River Valley, but it
will be in somewhat of an orphaned state. The ejection of the parent
cyclone into the Hudson Bay and the northward displacement of all
mid/upper level dynamic forcing will limit this system`s ability to
produce widespread cloud cover, let alone precipitation. Persistent
northerly wind components throughout the column will keep the column
fairly dry before, during, and after FROPA, further suppressing the
PoPs. There is a signal for some midlevel cloud coverage in the
northern half of the forecast area on Wednesday associated with the
front, but the only real sensible weather impact from the mid-week
system will be slightly cooler temperatures. Efficient diurnal
warming could still allow cloudless southwestern portions of the
forecast area to warm to the mid-70s on Wednesday, but overnight
lows are poised to cool into the 40s area wide by Thursday morning.
By Thursday afternoon, longwave troughing will have amplified over
the Eastern CONUS and shunted the early-week ridge back towards the
Ozarks. This translates towards cooler afternoon MaxTs (upper 60s)
across the northeastern half of the forecast area, with low 70s
still forecast closer to the ridge in vicinity of Lake Cumberland.

The shifting of midlevel synoptic features on Thursday marks the
beginning of an overall pattern change, although the forecast
guidance suite begins to diverge around this same time. The forecast
generally trends towards return flow out of the south/southwest at
some point late next week, although the models vary upon the timing
and magnitude of the resultant moisture influx. Temperatures tick
back up towards the mid 70s next weekend, but this warmth could be
met with returning rain chances just beyond the end of the period.
It remains too early to provide specifics regarding timing/amounts,
but there is a signal next weekend for some relief from the
persistent dryness that we`ve experienced as of late here in the
Commonwealth. Before then, expect dryness to dominate the long term
forecast period and generally pleasant weather for any
planned outdoor fall activities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025

A weakening boundary has settled across the area and has become
nearly diffuse. During the period, a ridge of high pressure will
build into eastern KY at the sfc from the Great Lakes while a slow
moving low pressure system moves slowly up the eastern seaboard.
A few low or mid level clouds are possible with the decaying
front early in the period while high clouds from the coastal
system should trek across the area overnight. VFR conditions
prevailed at issuance time and are expected to prevail across the
region during the next 24 hours, with one caveat. Renewed fog
development is expected in valleys, after about 04Z, and then
dissipating by around 14Z. The TAF sites should remain VFR through
the period, with a small possibility for fog to lift into KSME,
KSJS, or KSYM, though confidence in this scenario was too low to
include at this time. Light and variable winds will prevail
through around 14Z, before winds become northeast to north at less
than 10KT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP