585
FXUS63 KJKL 080210
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
910 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A return to well above normal temperatures will occur for one
  day on Saturday, followed by more normal values for the
  remainder of the next week.

- An active weather pattern will continue, with multiple weather
  systems over the next week.

- The greatest threats of heavy rainfall are Monday night through
  Tuesday, and Wednesday night into Thursday night. The greatest
  potential for accumulating snow is Monday night into Tuesday,
  especially for our northern counties.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2025

Clouds are thickening again across eastern Kentucky this evening
as a plume of moisture surges across the Lower Mississippi Valley
toward the Ohio Valley. Weak returns are developing on radar
imagery but low-level dry air is causing much of the precipitation
to evaporate as it falls. Have included sprinkles in the forecast
for the next few hours to account for any drops that reach the
ground, then expect a more widespread, mainly light, showers to
develop from west to east around/after midnight and persist in
the morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 434 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2025

The cold front which passed on Thursday night is now stalled
across the Deep South. A lee low currently over CO will move east
and pull the front northward, as high pressure currently over OH
shifts eastward. Warm air advection/isentropic lift atop the cold
air north of the boundary will result in showers developing over
our area tonight. Fortunately, rainfall amounts don`t look
significant, but the POP is high, especially for the middle and
northern latitudes of the forecast area. The activity lasts into
Saturday but largely departs during the day as the warm front
lifts north of the area. The wave of low pressure passes by just
to our north on Saturday evening and its circulation pushes the
boundary back southeast through the region as a cold front. More
showers will occur with the cold front but taper off from
northwest to southeast during the night.

Once clouds arrive tonight, they will be fairly prevalent through
the short term period. This will dampen normal diurnal trends.
Advection will be our biggest factor for temperatures, with
readings being nearly steady overnight tonight, jumping with warm
frontal passage on Saturday, and then dropping notably after cold
fropa on Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 704 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2025

The models are in good agreement with a prolonged period of broad
west to southwest flow in the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere east of the Rockies, with multiple short wave troughs
traversing this flow from southwest to northeast. At the surface,
a persistent baroclinic zone will set up from the Ohio Valley
through the lower Mississippi Valley, allowing for active weather
across eastern Kentucky.

A weak, passing short wave trough will bring a small chance of light
precipitation to the area Sunday night into Monday, but otherwise,
we will be dry, following the rain activity for the first half of
the weekend. The next better surge of moisture and lift will move
in from the southwest late Monday night and continue through late
Tuesday night. Models are still disagreeing on the exact position
of the stalled frontal boundary and how much leading edge cold
air will be in place. The ECMWF remains warmer, while the GFS is
colder. Either way, there will be a chance of snow at onset, with
better probabilities of accumulating snowfall generally north of
the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80. At this point, it is still
too far out to predict any corridor of a wintry mix with
confidence.

Rainfall amounts do not look overly excessive at this point, with
GFS ensemble probabilities of 2 inches in 24 hours only at around
10%, while the ECMWF is less than 10%. These numbers have not
trended up necessarily over the last few days as well. Still,
renewed rises on streams, creeks, and rivers will occur.
Precipitation will diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
but the next round will follow quickly by late Wednesday and
continue into Thursday. This second wave looks to be more
progressive than the first round, although it has the potential to
also be heavier in nature, given the stronger forcing at play.
Either way, we will be primed for flooding by that point, as
larger main stem rivers will likely still be on the rise from the
previous round of precipitation. Will have to see how this trends
in the coming days. A snowier finish may also occur on the
backside of the exit of this system, with drier weather returning
into Friday, but for how long, as models suggest another more
intense system to move in by the following weekend.

Temperatures will likely average near normal through the period,
with highs in the 40s and lows ranging from the 20s to the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2025

VFR ceilings at TAF issuance time will lower through the night
eventually to MVFR as showers develop from west-to-east. Further
brief drops to IFR are possible in most places Saturday morning.
Winds will be light and variable tonight before becoming
southwesterly and increasing to 6-11 kts on Saturday with higher
gusts of 15 to 25 kts once the more widespread shower activity
temporarily shifts north of the area during the late morning/
afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON