434
FXUS63 KJKL 191143
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
743 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected for the next week.

- The next substantive chance at rain arrives Monday.

- A cold front may stall over the Ohio Valley later next week,
  bringing more chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025

A large ridge-valley split continues across parts of the forecast
area, with the more sheltered valleys decoupled allowing for
temperatures to reach the lower to mid 50s. Meanwhile, continued mixing
has continued through the night in most other locations resulting
in lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

The main change to the morning update was to lower the Sky
coverage a bit, blending in the optimistic (i.e., lower Sky
percentage) CONShort with the more pessimistic NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 543 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025

Radar analysis shows a line of showers and thunderstorms along a
frontal boundary extending from near Ottowa Canada, into far
southwestern Texas and Mexico. While an upper level low deepens
over the Four Corners region in the Western US. Through today,
the Four Corners low will dig into the Southern Plains. The
frontal boundary will be slow to progress eastward, as a stout
high is located across the Southeast US. Heading into the morning
hours Sunday this upper level trough now over Texas, will become
negatively tilted as it begins to slowly lift northeast into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley.

For Today, Eastern Kentucky will remain out ahead of the frontal
boundary, with continued warm southwest flow. Temperatures will
warm into the mid to upper 80s for most, however moisture will
remain fairly limited with dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s
through the afternoon. Daytime heating will allow for decent
mixing across the area, resulting in southwest winds gusting
around or near 20 mph. There may be a slight chance of some
showers and a thunderstorm or two north of the I-64 corridor this
evening, with greatest chances in Fleming county (20-25% chance).
Some patchy valley fog may develop and linger early Sunday
morning, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

As mentioned above the upper level low will continue to slowly lift
northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through Sunday. Moisture
recovery continues across Eastern Kentucky through the day, though
it may only result in mostly cloudy skies. Models did have around
a 15 percent chance of showers across the Bluegrass area during
the afternoon but decided not to include showers in the forecast
for the time being given a possible capping inversion. Often the
NBM needs to be adjusted towards the 5th or 10th percentile for
dewpoints during peak heating; especially during fire weather
season. An adjustment towards the 10th percentile puts afternoon
dewpoints in the upper 50s for Sunday afternoon. If the NBM`s low
60s dewpoints are realized, a shower or two could be in the realm
of possibility. Temperatures will remain warm, ranging form the
upper 70s across the north to mid to upper 80s, mainly south of
the Mountain Parkway.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 543 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025

Sunday night an upper level low over the Mid-Mississippi Valley
will continue to move off to the northeast into the Upper Great
Lakes Region. A trailing cold front is also modeled, extending
from the Upper Ohio Valley all the way to Galveston Texas and the
Gulf Coast by Monday morning. This front will slowly propagate
east, over Eastern Kentucky Monday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain warm in the mid 70s to low
80s. A strong high pressure over the Southeast will work to slow
the progression of the frontal boundary while also pulling
moisture up around the high. This will lead to showers lingering
through the day Tuesday. Temperatures will cool some, in the low
to upper 70s.

Wednesday, another low develops along the Southern Plains in Texas,
drawing Gulf moisture from the south. This low is modeled to
interact with the departing boundary acting like a warm front
pushing north. This will bring a chances of showers through
Wednesday. Highs remain seasonably warm in the upper 70s to low
80s.

Thursday and Friday, periods of unsettled weather are modeled with
both showers and thunderstorms possible. This is due to multiple
disturbances moving northeast along a stalled front across the
Ohio Valley. Highs remain in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with
southwesterly winds through 00Z Sunday, after which light and
variable winds are expected. A low level jet is the cause for wind
shear in the TAFS, but should be subsiding through the next hour
or so (12-13Z). Breezy conditions will resume across all TAF
sites this morning through the afternoon with daytime heating.
Sites KSYM and KSJS may see CIGS drop to MVFR towards the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GINNICK