449
FXUS63 KJKL 281158
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
658 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region through
  Black Friday.

- There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast for the
  early to middle part of next week. Some wintry precipitation is
  possible during the Monday night through Tuesday night period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025

Adjusted sky grids for remaining cloud cover across the far
eastern part of the CWA, which should clear out over the next few
hours. Also refreshed the diurnal temperature curve by importing
the latest observational data from around the region. The forecast
remains on track with only minor tweaks being made.

UPDATE Issued at 825 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025

Tweaked sky grids to reflect current satellite trends. Also
ingested latest wind and temperature observations and recalculated
diurnal trend for overnight low. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track.

UPDATE Issued at 538 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025

Late afternoon update is out with minor updates to the Sky grids
based on latest satellite trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 225 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025

19Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between two systems this
afternoon with a deep low off to the northeast while chilly high
pressure is found to the west of the state. This has continued
west to northwest winds for the area at 10 to 15 mph bringing in
more cold air. Accordingly, despite the breakout of sunshine over
much of this part of the state by late morning, temperatures are
struggling to climb very far up through the 30s with readings
ranging from the lower 30s northwest to around 40 in the southern
parts of the Cumberland Valley. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running
in the upper teens to lower 20s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict fairly deep troughing over the Great
Lakes stretched south to the Gulf Coast this afternoon. Two
streams of mid level flow are carrying their impulses through the
region - one north near the Lakes and another through the Deep
South. As the parent trough slips east tonight more energy will
push south into western parts of the state on northwest flow. This
stream quickly shifts northeast out of Kentucky by midday Friday
as the mid level flow starts to flatten and the overall pattern
relaxes. Later that night, the flow becomes more zonal, but still
rather fast. Meanwhile, more energy starts to consolidate upstream
over the Rockies temporarily tilting the 5h flow over Kentucky to
the west southwest by Saturday morning. The still pretty small
spread among the models supported using the NBM as the starting
point of the forecast grids with minimal adjustments needed -
mainly to include more terrain distinction for temperatures
tonight, and again Friday night, enhancing ridge to valley
differences.

Sensible weather features dry and cold air passing through the
region tonight and Friday as high pressure moves east across the
state. This will mean a very cold night is on tap along with some
extra, and quicker, cooling in the valley locations as the
boundary layer decouples toward sunset. Friday will still be quite
chilly owing to the very cold start - despite more sunshine and
the winds lighter from the northwest. Then, Friday night, we will
see deep low pressure and the next system`s warm front lifting
this way from the west. This starts to bring in more moisture late
- and still some ridge to valley temperature differences into
Saturday morning.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adding in more details for the temperatures tonight in order to
include some ridge to valley distinctions and again for Friday
night. As for PoPs, kept them in the single digits or zero through
Friday night for eastern Kentucky, in line with guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025

After a chilly start to the day Saturday, temperatures slowly
moderate upwards under increasing warm advection, especially late in
the day with the passage of a warm front on the leading edge of the
next system approaching the area. The initial surge of moisture
aloft will be moving over a dry low-level air mass, which may
support some initial p-type concerns as the atmospheric column cools
via evaporation, though any snow that may fall will not cause any
accumulations or impacts outside of a possible dusting on the tops
of the higher mountains along the Virginia border. As the warm front
moves through and warm advection ushers in increasing moisture
through the lower levels, any possible frozen precipitation will
quickly change to all rain for the remainder of Saturday night into
the morning hours Sunday. As the cold front moves through, strong
cold advection on the backside of the system may allow for snow
showers with no expected impacts outside of very light accumulations
over the high terrain near the Virginia border.

After a brief lull late Sunday night into Monday with the passage of
a progressive and weakening surface ridge, attention turns to a
large-scale yet progressive upper trough moving east across the
country and progged to impact our area from Monday night through
early Wednesday. There remains considerable uncertainty with regards
to the evolution of this system, or systems, as operational models
suggest two separate shortwaves (northern and southern) within the
large-scale trough, which may or may not be in sync as they approach
our area, which would impact precipitation amounts over eastern
Kentucky. Additionally, there is uncertainty with regards to
temperatures and critical thicknesses which will have a significant
impact on where potential wintry precipitation occurs within the
Eastern Kentucky region. The most recent set of operational models
suggest an overall warming trend which would suggest less wintry
precipitation across the area late Monday night into Tuesday, but
this is not shown with this forecast package which utilizes the NBM
incorporating older model runs from last evening.

Depending on how the system evolves, cold advection snow showers are
again possible on the back end Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning, with the potential for light accumulations especially over
the high terrain, with dry weather most likely returning Wednesday
into Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. west winds of 5-10
kts will diminish this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL