Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FNUS72 KJAX 211056
FWSJAX

Spot Forecast for JSF Long Branch...Florida Forest Service
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
656 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on August 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A wake trough of low pressure will slide toward north Florida
today as atmospheric moisture increases, fueling higher chances
for late afternoon Thunderstorms near the RX burn area. Showers
may develop as early as 1400 but are more likely to begin around
1600 as a stronger (up to 10 mph) Gulf sea breeze reaches the
area. Prior to the southwesterly winds, anticipate light winds (5
mph or less) that favor a WNW direction. Chaotic outflow winds
will be possible with vicinity thunderstorms between 1500-1900
this evening. A weak frontal feature will increase chances for
afternoon thunderstorms more on Friday.


.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM
Sky (%).........13  3   4   3   2   15  59  58  69  68  68
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............75  76  81  85  88  90  92  92  90  89  87
RH..............94  94  85  77  70  66  60  58  62  64  68
Wind chill (F)..75  76  81  85  88  90  92  92  90  89  87
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   3   5   6   6   7   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.3   6   7   9   9   10  13  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.1 4.2 4.5 4.9 4.1 3.4 2.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   8   9   9   10  10  10  10
LVORI...........6   6   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   3

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM
Sky (%).........59  69  58  47  44  38  30  24  24  22  21  22
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY CHC SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  60  60  60  40  20  10  0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).40  60  60  60  40  20  10  10  10  0   0   0
Temp............87  84  82  80  78  77  77  76  75  75  75  74
RH..............68  74  82  88  91  90  94  94  97  97  97  100
Wind chill (F)..87  84  82  80  78  77  77  76  75  75  75  74
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   7   5   3   2   1   2   1   1   1   1   2
20 FT wind gust.13  10  7   6   3   2   3   2   2   2   2   3
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.9   8   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
LVORI...........3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   7   8   8   8

.FRIDAY...
TIME (EDT)      2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM
Sky (%).........20  25  11  12  17  22  29  37  44  49  55  60
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH DEF DEF DEF DEF
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   30  30  30  30  30  30  80  80  80  80
Chc of thdr (%).0   10  10  10  10  30  30  30  90  90  90  90
Temp............74  74  75  80  84  88  91  92  92  91  89  87
RH..............100 100 100 88  80  72  64  62  62  64  66  70
Wind chill (F)..74  74  75  80  84  88  91  92  92  91  89  87
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..1   2   2   3   3   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.2   3   3   6   6   7   7   9   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.7 5.6 4.8 3.9 3.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.6   6   5   5   6   6   6   7   8   9   10  10
LVORI...........9   9   9   5   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   2

$$
Forecaster...Boothe
Requested by...Sam Negaran
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520362.0/JAX
.DELDT 08/21/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Sam.negaran@fdacs.gov