Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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823
FNUS72 KJAX 301729
FWSJAX

Spot Forecast for Buford Bay (45)...Florida Forest Service
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
129 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 EDT on June 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES FORECAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

Numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop near
the wildfire both today and Tuesday. Briefly gusty winds, frequent
lightning strikes, and heavy downpours are expected with stronger
storms that may impact the wildfire site later this afternoon. Low
clouds and patchy fog formation will be possible near the wildfire
site during the predawn and early morning hours on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Dense fog is not anticipated, and low clouds
should dissipate by the mid to late morning hours both days.

Southwesterly surface and transport winds will only gradually
increase before thunderstorms develop later this afternoon, keeping
daytime dispersion values in the fair range. Southwesterly transport
winds will become breezy by the mid to late morning hours on Tuesday,
and these winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create
high daytime dispersion values by the early afternoon hours before
thunderstorms begin developing near the site.

.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........62  54  61  67
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).30  40  50  70
Chc of thdr (%).30  40  50  70
Temp............90  89  87  84
RH..............60  61  68  72
Heat index (F)..94  93  91  90
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.9   9   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 3.4 3.3 3.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.6   7   8   9
Dispersion idx..25  30  30  35
LVORI...........2   2   3   3

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........63  63  62  56  50  41  31  18  21  17  24  35
Weather cov.....DEF DEF CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........DEF DEF CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).90  80  40  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).90  80  30  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............81  76  76  74  73  73  72  72  71  70  70  70
RH..............79  97  94  97  100 97  100 97  100 100 100 100
Heat index (F)..86  85  78  76  74  73  72  72  72  72  71  71
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   6   5   5   3   3   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  9   7   7   6   6   3   3   3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.9   10  10  12  12  12  12  10  10  9   9   9
Dispersion idx..25  20  10  8   8   7   5   5   4   4   4   4
LVORI...........3   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   9   9   9   9

.TUESDAY...
TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........42  38  37  34  46  39  40  31  42  49  62  52
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  0   10  10  20  20  50  60  70  70
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   10  0   10  10  20  20  50  60  70  70
Temp............70  70  73  77  80  83  85  86  86  86  85  84
RH..............100 100 100 90  82  72  67  65  60  65  65  70
Heat index (F)..71  72  73  76  79  87  90  93  93  93  93  91
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..2   3   5   6   6   7   8   8   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.3   6   7   9   9   10  13  13  14  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.9   9   10  12  14  15  16  16  16  18  18  18
Dispersion idx..4   4   15  25  45  60  75  80  90  85  85  80
LVORI...........9   8   5   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...Nelson
Requested by...Mike Work
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516862.3/JAX
.DELDT 06/30/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sierra.blackwell@fdacs.gov,Michael.Work@FDACS.Gov,sean.dowie@fdacs.gov,salvatore.dalu@fdacs.gov