349
FNUS72 KJAX 180907
FWSJAX

Spot Forecast for Convention Special Event...Jekyll Island Fire Department
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
407 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2300 EST on January 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Tuesday night, cold temperatures dominate and the potential winter
precipitation impacts increase Tuesday and tapper off through
Wednesday morning as a surface low forms across the Gulf of
Mexico. How far north the center of the low tracks and how much
moisture advects northward across the local area will influence
the resultant precipitation types and amounts as the surface low
crosses the southern FL peninsula late Tuesday night and departs
quickly to the NE early Wednesday as another cold dome of high
pressure builds in from the west.

The potential for a wintry mix of snow and potential freezing
rain begins over the area Tuesday afternoon and continues into
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The latest NBM model
guidance has increased probabilities of snow > 1 inch across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning to 20% (low) chance.
The chance of freezing rain has also increased in the latest NBM
model runs with the 24-hr chances of freezing rain > 0.10" at 20%
(low).

For planning purposes, these probabilities are based around 1
inch or more of possible snowfall accumulation during the 24 hr
window from 7 am Tue morning to 7 am Wed morning. For freezing
rain probabilities, these are based on potential accumulations of
> 0.10". Although the exact extent and type of wintry
precipitation is still being refined and accumulation potential
is still very uncertain, it is important to note that ice
accumulations can cause significant impacts to local power lines,
trees and cause very dangerous transportation conditions.

Drier conditions will filter across the area Wednesday afternoon
as surface high pressure builds to the NNE. Inland freezes and
hard freezes are likely Tue night with the daytime high only
getting up to 40. Gusty northerly winds Wednesday will make for
wind chills in the 20s and 30s through early afternoon.

Please check back to the forecast for updates as this forecast
will likely change.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
TIME (EST)      11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........93  91  90  90  89  89  86
Weather cov.....DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RS  RS  RS  RS  RS
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).80  80  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............34  34  33  33  32  32  32
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 100 96
Wind chill (F)..22  21  20  20  19  19  19
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Surface wnd spd.24  25  25  25  24  24  24
Surface wnd gst.33  35  35  35  33  33  33
Transp wind dir.M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind spd.M   M   M   M   M   M   M

.WEDNESDAY...
TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........82  79  75  70  66  62  57  53  53  52  52  53
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RS  RS  RS  RS  RS  RS  RS
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).60  30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............31  31  31  33  35  37  38  39  40  40  40  39
RH..............100 96  96  92  85  79  79  76  73  73  73  76
Wind chill (F)..18  18  18  21  24  26  28  29  31  31  31  30
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Surface wnd spd.23  23  22  22  21  21  20  20  20  18  18  18
Surface wnd gst.32  32  30  30  29  29  28  28  28  25  25  25
Transp wind dir.M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind spd.M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M

$$
Forecaster...Villafane
Requested by...Dennis Gailey
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 2500877.0/JAX
.DELDT 01/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dgailey@jekyllisland.com,njensen@jekyllisland.com