954
FXUS62 KJAX 091958
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
258 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES...
...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1032
millibars) centered over the eastern Great Lakes states, with this
feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard and pushing a
"backdoor" cold front south-southwestward across the FL/GA border.
Aloft...slowly weakening ridging was centered over northeast FL,
while a previously cutoff upper level low was now accelerating
northeastward across the Plains states. Otherwise, Tropical Storm
Rafael (999 millibars) was stuck in weak steering currents between
these two features over the central Gulf of Mexico, with this
tropical cyclone continuing to weaken as strong wind shear
continues to advect a very dry air mass into Rafael`s decoupling
low and mid level circulations. Latest GOES-East derived Total
Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a drier air mass has
gradually been advecting into our region, with PWAT values
generally in the 1.4 - 1.8 inch range, which is still well above
climatology for our area for early November. A conveyor belt of
light to moderate showers located along and just south of the
"backdoor" cold front was streaming westward across coastal Duval
and Nassau Counties, with lighter activity moving further inland
along the Interstate 10 corridor. Multi-layered cloudiness
otherwise prevails from the I-10 corridor northward, while breaks
in the cloudiness were located overhead for locations south of the
I-10 corridor. Temperatures at 20Z were generally in the upper
70s to lower 80s, except lower 70s where showers were occurring.
Dewpoints ranged from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 217 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Our local pressure gradient will continue to tighten this
afternoon from north to south as strong high pressure wedges
down the southeastern seaboard, pushing a backdoor frontal
boundary across northeast FL tonight. Widely scattered showers
along the Interstate 10 corridor late this afternoon should
gradually shift northward across southeast GA this evening, with
waves of showers then forecast to impact coastal southeast GA and
locations further inland near the Altamaha River overnight. Breezy
onshore winds will keep lows in the 70-75 degree range overnight
at coastal locations, with lows only falling to the mid and upper
60s at most inland locations. Low stratus ceilings are expected to
develop during the predawn and early morning hours across the
Suwannee Valley and inland southeast GA, with lower stratocumulus
clouds occasionally streaming onshore elsewhere overnight. A few
showers may also advect onshore towards sunrise across Flagler and
St. Johns Counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Scattered showers are anticipated for Sunday as high pressure
situated to the north moves further to the east over the
Atlantic and a coastal trough forms along coastal Georgia and
northeast Florida and prevailing flow over the region shifts to
become more southerly resulting in PWAT values of up to 1.9
inches. A frontal boundary pressing down from out of the northeast
bringing light showers over the forecast area with conditions
drying overnight as drier air associated with a more northerly
flow settles in over the area. Above average temperatures will be
in place for the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week
with daily high temperatures reaching into the lower to mid 80s
by Monday. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid
60s for inland areas and into the upper 60s and lower 70s along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Dry weather conditions will continue through the week, with the
cold front to the north moving southward over the forecast area.
A second mostly dry frontal passage is expected to occur later in
the week as another cold front moves across the southeastern US
bringing cooler temperatures and clearing skies before the
weekend. Temperatures through the end of the week will experience
a cooling trend with daily high temps dropping to values near the
seasonal average by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Moderate to briefly heavy showers will impact the Duval County
terminals through around sunset, with MVFR visibilities expected
during heavier downpours. MVFR ceilings should otherwise prevail
at the Duval County terminals and SGJ through the overnight
hours, with a period of IFR ceilings possible at VQQ during the
predawn and early morning hours on Sunday. Periods of MVFR
ceilings are expected at SSI through the afternoon hours, with
shower coverage expected to then migrate northward into southeast
GA towards sunset. MVFR conditions then expected to prevail
through the rest of the TAF period at SSI, with periods of IFR
conditions possible during heavier downpours. VFR conditions
should prevail through the evening hours at GNV, followed by MVFR
ceilings developing overnight and continuing into Sunday, with
periods of showers possible. Gusty east-northeasterly surface
winds at SSI will continue through the evening hours, with
sustained speeds around 15 knots. East-northeasterly surface winds
will generally remain sustained around 10 knots elsewhere through
sunset, with speeds then diminishing to around 5 knots overnight.
Southeasterly surface winds will then increase by 14Z Sunday, with
sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 knots at the regional
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

A frontal boundary near the FL/GA border will move southward
across the northeast Florida waters overnight before stalling
across east central Florida on Sunday. Meanwhile, strong high
pressure building southeastward from the Great Lakes region in the
wake of this front will push offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast
on Sunday while gradually weakening. Northeasterly winds will
strengthen late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by
gradually building seas. Small Craft Advisory conditions over the
GA waters, due to sustained northeasterly winds around 20 knots,
are expected to expand to the offshore waters adjacent to
northeast FL this evening. Caution conditions are expected for
the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL this evening, where
speeds of 15-20 knots are forecast, with seas building to 4-6
feet. Small Craft Advisory level seas of 5-7 feet are then
expected to materialize towards sunrise across the near shore
waters adjacent to northeast FL.

Winds will shift to southeasterly on Sunday, with seas peaking in
the 6-9 foot range offshore. Wind speeds will then gradually
diminish on Sunday night and Monday, but seas will likely remain
at Small Craft Advisory levels for the offshore waters adjacent to
northeast FL. A series of dry cold fronts will push southeastward
across our local waters next week, with strengthening north to
northeast winds and gradually building seas forecast. Caution
level wind speeds of 15-20 knots should develop by late Monday
night throughout our local waters.

Rip Currents: Breaker heights of 2-4 feet and strengthening
onshore winds will create a high rip current risk at all area
beaches through sunset this evening. Breezy onshore winds will
continue on Sunday, and breakers will build to 4-6 feet at the
northeast FL beaches and 3-5 feet at the southeast GA beaches,
keeping the high risk of rip currents in place at all area
beaches. Onshore winds will diminish on Veteran`s Day, but breaker
heights will only diminish to 3-5 feet, keeping an elevated
threat in place at area beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1232 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Record High Temperatures at our designated climate sites through
Tuesday:

                  11/9      11/10     11/11     11/12
                --------------------------------------

Jacksonville     88/1986   86/2023   87/1986   87/1986
Gainesville      88/1986   87/2023   89/2023   87/2018
Alma, GA         87/1986   85/2023   85/2020   84/2020
Craig Airport    85/2018   84/1979   85/1998   85/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures at our designated climate sites
through Tuesday:

                  11/9      11/10     11/11     11/12
                --------------------------------------

Jacksonville    72/2020    73/2020   76/2020   69/2020
Gainesville     72/2020    72/2020   73/2020   70/1975
Alma, GA        69/2020    72/2020   73/2020   71/2020
Craig Airport   74/2020    76/2020   78/2020   73/2020

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  80  66  82 /  30  40  20  10
SSI  70  79  70  81 /  50  50  30   0
JAX  69  83  66  85 /  30  50  20  10
SGJ  73  82  70  82 /  20  40  20  10
GNV  67  86  66  85 /  10  20  10  10
OCF  68  87  67  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$