512
FXUS62 KJAX 081916
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
216 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT...

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 214 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Another very cold night with clear skies and northerly winds is in
store for southeast Georgia and northeast Florida, with freezing
conditions expected area-wide, as well as dangerously cold wind
chill values. The Freeze Warning has been expanded to the
northeast Florida coast, although it is likely that along the St.
Johns river basin and immediate north Florida coast will not reach
freezing, but remain in the mid 30s. Wind chills will drop into
the upper teens across southeast Georgia, and in the lower to mid
20s for northeast Florida, including the coast as northerly winds
remain slightly elevated overnight. Widespread frost formation is
likely across inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley,
however gustier winds towards northeast Florida will limit frost
potential to patchy, potentially areas of frost.

Local Cold Weather Advisory criteria:

NE FL - wind chills/temperatures 16-25F

SE GA - wind chills/temperatures 11-20 F

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 214 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Cool dry air over the area Thursday creates clear skies and cooler
temperatures for the area. Daytime highs will be in the upper 40s
to low 50s over the region. Overnight Thursday, moisture will
begin creeping back into the area bringing in some cloud cover
that will increase from mostly clear to partly cloudy skies by
Friday morning. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s
over southeast Georgia and low to mid 30s over northeast Florida.
These cold temperatures will likely spur a cold weather advisory
for most of the area Thursday night into Friday morning.

Friday, low pressure coming in out of the Gulf will push the
surface high pressure out into the Atlantic and continue to build
moisture back into the area ahead of an approaching warm front.
Fairly weak isentropic lift and a substantial layer of dry air
below 700mb creates a very low chance for snow flurries for
northern portions of Jeff Davis and Appling counties Friday
morning. Rain chances look to start over southeast Georgia
beginning in the afternoon around 20 to 30% and continue to
increase into the evening hours (60-90%), spreading south over
northeast Florida overnight. Daytime high temperatures will be in
the low 50s to low 60s over southeast Georgia and low 60s to low
70s over northeast Florida. Overnight temperatures will be in the
low 40s over southeast Georgia and in the mid 40s to mid 50s over
northeast Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Drizzly weather kicks off the weekend Saturday morning but will
quickly clear the area by the afternoon. Dry cool air will
dominate the area for the rest of the forecast period with a
couple of dry cold fronts slotted to make their way through and
keep daytime high temperatures below normal. Daytime highs will
generally be in the 50s to low 60s with overnight temperatures in
the mid 20s to mid 30s over southeast Georgia and upper 20s to mid
30s over northeast Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR will continue. Sfc northwest winds of about 6-12 kt Today into
much of tonight, with occasionally higher gusts to near 20 kt.

By Thursday morning, winds will turn more northerly with speeds
around 9-14G20KT. A low potential for gusts of 25-30 kt, mainly
for SSI, CRG, and SGJ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Northwest winds increase to Small Craft Advisory levels tonight
into Thursday in the wake of this front. Winds subside by Thursday
night as arctic high pressure shifts eastward across the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Winds shift to northeast and then
southeast on Friday as low pressure develops over the northern
Gulf of Mexico, with this feature expected to cross the Florida
panhandle on Friday night. Showers will return Friday night into
Saturday. A cold front will cross the waters early Saturday the
low pressure moves to the northeast of the area waters. High
pressure builds into the area on Sunday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents for NE FL beaches, and
low risk for SE GA beaches on Thursday as winds gradually shift
from NW to NE throughout the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

Low humidity today and tomorrow with minRH for inland areas
generally below 31%. A dry front will make its way through the
area today and through the evening, creating some gustier winds
over northeast Florida. These gustier winds and low humidities
will create elevated fire weather for northeast Florida Thursday.
Friday, moisture will begin to build back into the area ahead of
an approaching warm front. Chances for rain look to start over
southeast Georgia beginning Friday afternoon with percentages
around 20 to 30%, continuing to increase into the evening hours
(60-90%) and spreading south over northeast Florida overnight into
Saturday morning. Saturday, showers will begin to taper off by the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  26  47  26  53 /   0   0   0  30
SSI  31  49  34  60 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  29  51  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  33  50  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  28  51  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  29  54  31  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-124-136-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-340-
     422-425-522.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ021-
     023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-
     220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ033-038-125-
     132-133-137-138-325.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday
     for AMZ452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$