959
FXUS62 KJAX 160156
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
956 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches through Thursday

- Small Craft Advisory Offshore through Thursday Night

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Main Impact Area: St.
  Johns River Basin South of Duval County

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Late evening surface analysis depicts high pressure (1024
millibars) centered over the Great Lakes region, with this feature
beginning to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. Aloft...deep-
layered ridging was centered over the Ozarks and the lower
Mississippi Valley, while troughing was pivoting southeastward
across Atlantic Canada and New England. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery and the evening sounding at
Jacksonville indicates that a dry and subsident air mass remains
in place across our region, with PWATs around or just below 1 inch
and a 2 degrees Celsius temperature inversion based around 850
millibars (around 5,000 feet). A few stratocumulus clouds were
drifting southward across western portions of the Suwannee Valley,
with fair skies in place elsewhere. Temperatures at 02Z were
quickly falling through the 60s inland, ranging to around 70 along
the northeast FL coast and across portions of north central FL.
Dewpoints ranged from the upper 50s across portions of inland
southeast GA to the low and mid 60s elsewhere.

High pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard later tonight
will tend to tighten our local pressure gradient, which may negate
chances for radiation fog formation as a light northerly breeze
develops during the predawn and early morning hours. Fair skies
will otherwise prevail, with lows falling to the 55-60 range
inland, while low and mid 60s prevail at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure to the north and coastal troughing will keep breezy
northeasterly winds near the coast Thursday into Friday. By Friday
evening, the high will move towards the northeast, shifting
onshore winds to more easterly while decreasing slightly. Drier
air infiltrating from the north will keep PWATs near or just below
1.0 inch, no precipitation expected during these two days. High
temperatures will be very Florida-fall like, reaching the mid to
upper 70s closer to the Atlantic coast, and low 80s further
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Mainly dry conditions continue during this period, with a 20% chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening
as a weak front moves through the area. Strong thunderstorms appear
unlikely at this time due to lack of supportive dynamics with a
later approach in the evening. Temperatures will generally rise
into the lower to mid 80s inland and upper 70s to around 80 degrees
near the Atlantic coast through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 757 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 05Z Thursday.
Periods of IFR visibilities are expected to develop at VQQ after
05Z, and a period of MVFR to IFR visibilities will be possible
after 06Z at GNV, JAX, and CRG. Confidence was too low to include
visibility restrictions due to radiation fog at GNV, JAX, and CRG
at this time, as light northerly surface winds are expected to
develop at the regional terminals during the predawn hours. These
light surface winds should scour out radiation fog that develops
overnight at VQQ towards 12Z, with VFR conditions expected to
prevail at the regional terminals towards sunrise. Northeasterly
surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots overnight at
SGJ, while speeds elsewhere decrease to 5 knots or less by 03Z.
Northerly surface winds around 5 knots around sunrise on Thursday
elsewhere will shift to northeasterly by 15Z. Sustained speeds
will increase to 10-15 knots at SGJ towards 15Z and elsewhere by
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure building over the Great Lakes region will wedge down
the southeastern seaboard through Friday, creating breezy
northeasterly winds across our local waters. Elevated seas of 5-7
feet offshore will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions
through at least early Friday morning. Caution conditions will
prevail for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida
through at least Friday, featuring speeds of 15-20 knots and seas
of 4-6 feet. High pressure will then weaken as it shifts
southeastward towards our local waters on Saturday, allowing winds
and seas to diminish. A weakening cold front will then approach
our region on Sunday night, possibly developing a few showers and
thunderstorms ahead of it. Southwesterly winds will briefly
strengthen to Caution levels of 15-20 knots ahead of this
boundary on Sunday night, with winds shifting to northerly in the
wake of this frontal passage by early Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Light northerly surface and transport winds early on Thursday
morning will shift to northeasterly by the mid-morning hours, with
breezy transport winds expected towards noon area-wide and breezy
surface winds expected across northeast and north central FL by
early afternoon. These breezy conditions will create good daytime
dispersion values area-wide, with marginally high values possible
for the Ocala National Forest on Thursday afternoon. A drier air
mass will shift across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley
on Friday, dropping minimum relative humidity values to the 30-35
percent range by Friday afternoon, and this drier air mass will
persist into Saturday as temperatures warm into the 80s. Breezy
east-northeasterly transport winds on Friday will keep good
daytime dispersion values in place across our region. Surface and
transport winds will then shift to easterly with diminishing
speeds on Saturday. Elevated mixing heights will allow for fair to
good daytime dispersion values.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Minor flooding will continue during times of high tide within the
St. Johns River basin from downtown Jacksonville southward
through the upcoming weekend and into next week, with persistent,
breezy northeasterly winds likely raising water levels to around
minor flooding for locations east of downtown Jacksonville by
Thursday evening. Water levels may also increase to around a minor
flood along the Atlantic coast and within the Intracoastal
Waterway for locations from St. Augustine southward during times
of high tide by late Thursday afternoon, with minor flooding
possible during times of high tide through at least Friday before
onshore winds diminish this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  82  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  63  77  64  75 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  59  81  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  65  80  67  78 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  59  85  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-132-
     137-138-325-333-633.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$