775
FXUS62 KJAX 180002
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
702 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Dry weather conditions and cool temperatures will continue
overnight and into Monday morning with patchy to potentially
locally dense fog forming over inland areas and southeast Georgia
during the early AM hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1254 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Fair conditions remain ongoing today as surface high pressure
currently centered near the Carolinas will continue to drift
southward through tonight. Subsidence and weaker pressure
gradients are also allowing temps to rise a bit more compared to
yesterday, topping out around the mid to upper 70s later this
afternoon before a weak sea breeze also affects areas closer to
the coast before sunset. Tonight, with high pressure centered just
offshore of the region by early Monday Morning, nearly calm winds
area wide will allow sufficient radiational cooling for temps to
fall to similar values as seen this morning, or perhaps even a bit
lower (40s interior and 50s south and east). Only factor that
could limit this a bit will be some higher clouds streaming across
the area from the northwest tonight. Calm conditions may also
result in patchy fog development over the interior once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1254 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

High pressure continues to dominate the area on Monday, leaving
pleasant temperatures and dry conditions. Highs will be in the mid
to upper 70s area-wide, with lows ranging from the low 50s to mid
60s. A cold front will begin to approach from the west on Tuesday,
increasing cold cover and promoting rain chances near 20-30% over
inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley. Rain chances
will increase overnight, with mild low temperatures in the 60s
area-wide. Tuesday will be warm ahead of the chilly end of week
temperatures forecast, with highs reaching the low 80s over most
of northeast Florida, with upper 70s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1254 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

The front will sweep through southeast Georgia and northeast
Florida on Wednesday, leaving rain chances throughout the day.
With increased moisture Tuesday through Wednesday, there will be a
risk of localized heavy rainfall causing flooding issues, mainly
in urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures remain mild on
Wednesday, however after the front passes in the evening and winds
shift northerly, temperatures will drop significantly overnight
into the 40s for inland southeast Georgia and portions of inland
northeast Florida. Thursday through the weekend will be dry, with
high temperatures remaining in the 60s with lows generally in the
40s inland with lower 50s along the coast. By Thursday night, only
a few coastal locations will stay above 50 degrees, however the
coldest night of the week will be Friday night, where even the
northeastern Florida coast will see temperatures in the mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

VFR conditions will continue overnight with a chance for patchy
to locally dense fog forming during the early morning hours on
Monday with visibilities potentially dropping below IFR levels at
VQQ. VFR conditions will resume before late morning for all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1254 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

High pressure will move over the coastal waters Tonight, then
gradually shift east of the waters late Monday and Tuesday. A strong
cold front will move southeastward and approach the waters Wednesday, then
move across the waters Wednesday night. The pressure gradient across the
waters will increase late Wednesday and Thursday, leading to potential for
advisory-level winds.

Rip Currents: Chances for high rip currents linger at Florida
Beaches through this afternoon, becoming moderate for all beaches
on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  75  53  76 /   0   0   0  20
SSI  54  74  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  50  77  59  81 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  57  76  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  51  78  57  80 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  52  79  59  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for FLZ033-
     038-124-125-132-133-137-138-225-325.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for GAZ154-
     166.

AM...None.
&&

$$