476
FXUS62 KJAX 061207
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
807 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 807 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z Monday at the
regional terminals. MVFR ceilings will then overspread our area
during the overnight and predawn hours on Monday, with IFR
ceilings possible towards 09Z at GNV and VQQ. However, confidence
was too low to indicate prevailing IFR ceilings at GNV and VQQ
towards the end of this TAF period. Southerly surface winds will
strengthen during the mid-morning hours, with sustained speeds
increasing to 10-15 knots before 15Z. Sustained speeds after 16Z
will increase to around 15 knots, with frequent gusts to around 25
knots possible through around 23Z. The Atlantic sea breeze
boundary will remain pinned along or east of Interstate 95 this
afternoon, with surface winds shifting to south-southeasterly at
the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals by 18Z. Southerly surface winds
will only gradually diminish after sunset, with sustained speeds
remaining in the 5-10 knot range after 04Z at the regional
terminals.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Deep layer high pressure system remains centered well to the
east/southeast of the area while a deep trough is over Great Lakes
to the southwest U.S. and nrn Mexico. The trough and high
pressure system will shift slowly to the east through tonight. An
associated cold front with this trough will advance from the TN
valley and central Gulf coast to nrn GA/inland SC to the western
FL panhandle by early Monday morning. Model progs and soundings
show continued dry air over the region today with PWATs mainly
under 1 inch with a large scale subsidence inversion noted. Breezy
south and southwest winds are expected up to 15G30 mph at times.
This will continue the warm conditions today with highs again
(again near record levels) in the upper 80s to a few lower 90s
under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. These temps are about
12 degrees above normal levels for early April. Given the mean 0-6
km winds becoming more south- southwest, the sea breeze will have
a tougher time moving inland today though will likely move right
past I-95 by late aftn and early evening. Thus, onshore flow at
the coast/beaches will result in cooler max temps there before sea
breeze passage at about the lower to mid 80s.

Tonight, low to mid level flow veers a bit more southwest as the
frontal boundary moves into the southeast states. A few showers
appear likely to move into the far northwest zones ahead of the
frontal boundary late in the night. Any t-storm threat looks to
remain to the northwest overnight. Low level winds remaining
elevated and fully in the warm sector will result in above normal
min temps again with 60s to near 70, close to the record high
minimums (See climate sections below). Furthermore, areas of low
stratus seem likely to develop, first over the west/southwest
zones and then will advance east to northeast through the night.
Some of the lowest stratus may bring some fog/vsby restrictions
around the I-75 corridor close to or just after midnight, and then
the rest of inland northeast FL from about 1 AM-6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Unsettled weather will linger through the day on Monday as the cold
front pushes through the region, bringing gusty winds ahead of
it. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase Monday morning
for southeast Georgia, with the strong to isolated severe
thunderstorm threat spreading across SE GA and NE FL by Monday
afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat
given decent shear and instability, with relatively poor lapse
rates. Activity will linger through most of the night for NE FL,
however the strong storm threat will begin to simmer down after
sunset. Forecast rainfall totals are 1-1.5" over SE GA, with
0.5-1" over NE FL, the Weather Prediction Center continues to
highlight areas north of I-10 for a Marginal risk of excessive
rainfall.

There will be a decent spread in high temperatures on Monday, with
highs in SE GA being in the upper 70s to low 80s, with NE FL
rising into the upper 80s to low 90s.

Cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday following the frontal
passage, high temperatures will stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the area with mostly sunny skies. Lows will dip into the
40s over inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley, with
lows in the 50s elsewhere Tuesday night

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Mainly dry conditions and average temperatures for April are
expected during this period. High temperatures will generally be
in the 70s to low 80s each day, with Wednesday seeing highs in the
upper 60s near the SE GA coast as northeast winds remain elevated.
Isolated shower chances linger long the NE FL coast Wednesday and
Thursday with the help on onshore winds, and return again on
Friday for areas along and north of I-10 as a weak front
approaches the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Southerly winds expected to increase today with likely chance of
meeting small craft advisory over much of the northeast FL waters
and into the offshore GA waters. HREF, NAM, and GFS supported
these winds of at least 20 kt starting near and after 20z this
aftn. Gusts around 30 kt expected. These conditions to continue
into late evening and overnight and then diminish by the 09z-12z
time frame. Have hoisted a small craft advisory for this hazard.

Another chance of meeting SCA conditions Monday afternoon ahead of
the strong cold front that will push into the waters in the aftn
and evening hours. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible by
late aftn and into the evening hours. After the frontal passage
Monday night, winds will be northwest and then become north by
Tuesday morning and decrease. Winds and seas may meet SCA
conditions again mid week as northeast flow strengthens.

Rip Currents: Rough surf of about 3-4 ft and breezy southeast
winds will support hazardous currents (rips and longshore) in the
northeast FL beaches and moderate rip current levels over the
southeast GA beaches. More offshore flow on Monday suggests more
moderate rip current levels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Today is the likely the last day for record warm temps.

Record High Temperatures:

Sunday, April 6th:
KJAX: 90/1947
KCRG: 87/2022
KAMG: 90/1967
KGNV: 90/2023

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

Sunday, April 6th:
KJAX: 70/2023
KGNV: 73/2022

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  66  79  50 /   0  20  90  60
SSI  82  69  85  54 /   0   0  60  90
JAX  90  67  88  55 /   0   0  50  80
SGJ  87  68  89  58 /   0   0  20  70
GNV  89  66  87  56 /   0  10  50  80
OCF  91  67  89  58 /   0   0  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     tonight for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EDT Monday
     for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$